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GenghisCapitalLtd
#1 Posted : Thursday, April 26, 2012 10:09:29 AM

Rank: Bona-fide


Joined: 11/2/2011
Posts: 191
Location: Nairobi
NIC seems to be the first one out of the blocks albeit incognito;

PBT +28.59% y-o-y to 1.03Bn
PAT +31.44% y-o-y to 723Mn
EPS +31.65% y-o-y to 1.83

more analysis to follow....stay tuned
Follow us on Twitter @genghiscapital
“Be a yardstick of quality. Some people aren’t used to an environment where excellence is expected.” Steve Jobs,iGenius
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Aguytrying
#2 Posted : Thursday, April 26, 2012 10:15:52 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
GenghisCapitalLtd wrote:
NIC seems to be the first one out of the blocks albeit incognito;

PBT +28.59% y-o-y to 1.03Bn
PAT +31.44% y-o-y to 723Mn
EPS +31.65% y-o-y to 1.83

more analysis to follow....stay tuned


eps is now 1.83??????

What p/e does this company trade at?
(is what i meant jerry)
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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jerry
#3 Posted : Thursday, April 26, 2012 10:20:01 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
...trade at NSE? It's BUY! BUY! BUY!
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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GenghisCapitalLtd
#4 Posted : Thursday, April 26, 2012 10:29:57 AM

Rank: Bona-fide


Joined: 11/2/2011
Posts: 191
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
GenghisCapitalLtd wrote:
NIC seems to be the first one out of the blocks albeit incognito;

PBT +28.59% y-o-y to 1.03Bn
PAT +31.44% y-o-y to 723Mn
EPS +31.65% y-o-y to 1.83

more analysis to follow....stay tuned


eps is now 1.83?????? p/e does this company trade at?


Trading at p/e of 4.35 and the sector p/e is 7.38.
Follow us on Twitter @genghiscapital
“Be a yardstick of quality. Some people aren’t used to an environment where excellence is expected.” Steve Jobs,iGenius
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Aguytrying
#5 Posted : Thursday, April 26, 2012 10:36:35 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
GenghisCapitalLtd wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
GenghisCapitalLtd wrote:
NIC seems to be the first one out of the blocks albeit incognito;

PBT +28.59% y-o-y to 1.03Bn
PAT +31.44% y-o-y to 723Mn
EPS +31.65% y-o-y to 1.83

more analysis to follow....stay tuned


eps is now 1.83?????? p/e does this company trade at?


Trading at p/e of 4.35 and the sector p/e is 7.38.


Please educate me here.

NIC is currently trading at 29.00 shillings.

EPS is 1.83

P/e= price/EPS 29/1.83= 15.85.

Am i missing something
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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GenghisCapitalLtd
#6 Posted : Thursday, April 26, 2012 10:43:58 AM

Rank: Bona-fide


Joined: 11/2/2011
Posts: 191
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
GenghisCapitalLtd wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
GenghisCapitalLtd wrote:
NIC seems to be the first one out of the blocks albeit incognito;

PBT +28.59% y-o-y to 1.03Bn
PAT +31.44% y-o-y to 723Mn
EPS +31.65% y-o-y to 1.83

more analysis to follow....stay tuned


eps is now 1.83?????? p/e does this company trade at?


Trading at p/e of 4.35 and the sector p/e is 7.38.


Please educate me here.

NIC is currently trading at 29.00 shillings.

EPS is 1.83

P/e= price/EPS 29/1.83= 15.85.

Am i missing something


Using trailing EPS of 6.72 as recorded by NSE in their weekly statistics and it closed at 29.25 yesterday thus the figure of 4.35 (trailing p/e). Using the current EPS will result in the figure u got with current prices of 29. If u use the the trailing 6.72 and current price of 32 will give a p/e of 4.76
Follow us on Twitter @genghiscapital
“Be a yardstick of quality. Some people aren’t used to an environment where excellence is expected.” Steve Jobs,iGenius
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GenghisCapitalLtd
#7 Posted : Thursday, April 26, 2012 10:56:06 AM

Rank: Bona-fide


Joined: 11/2/2011
Posts: 191
Location: Nairobi
Glad to see the deal on here
Follow us on Twitter @genghiscapital
“Be a yardstick of quality. Some people aren’t used to an environment where excellence is expected.” Steve Jobs,iGenius
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the deal
#8 Posted : Thursday, April 26, 2012 10:58:38 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Look at NIC Banks capital ratios, at the rate their going they will breach the minimum requirements by June...CBK must be watching them...surely that rights issue can't be far away...
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#9 Posted : Thursday, April 26, 2012 11:29:44 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
@Aguy,the Eps if 1.83 is for Q1 so assuming the same performance thru Q4, we are talking of a projected full year Eps of 7.32 & so at 29 bob, we can say its Forward PE is 29/7.32 = 3.96
Alternatively,u can take 29/4 and then divide by Q1 Eps & u'll still get the Forward PE of 3.96
@Genghis on the other hand is talking of the trailing PE!
Hope that's clear!
@SufficientlyP
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#10 Posted : Thursday, April 26, 2012 11:34:08 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Cant wait for member. I have a feeling they'l hit 4b PBT for Q1
@SufficientlyP
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Aguytrying
#11 Posted : Thursday, April 26, 2012 11:46:26 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
GenghisCapitalLtd wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
GenghisCapitalLtd wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
GenghisCapitalLtd wrote:
NIC seems to be the first one out of the blocks albeit incognito;

PBT +28.59% y-o-y to 1.03Bn
PAT +31.44% y-o-y to 723Mn
EPS +31.65% y-o-y to 1.83

more analysis to follow....stay tuned


eps is now 1.83?????? p/e does this company trade at?


Trading at p/e of 4.35 and the sector p/e is 7.38.


Please educate me here.

NIC is currently trading at 29.00 shillings.

EPS is 1.83

P/e= price/EPS 29/1.83= 15.85.

Am i missing something


Using trailing EPS of 6.72 as recorded by NSE in their weekly statistics and it closed at 29.25 yesterday thus the figure of 4.35 (trailing p/e). Using the current EPS will result in the figure u got with current prices of 29. If u use the the trailing 6.72 and current price of 32 will give a p/e of 4.76

i
thanks. i calculated using q1eps . a bit early in the morning smile
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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mlennyma
#12 Posted : Thursday, April 26, 2012 11:52:08 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,184
Location: nairobi
Can they give us rights at 20bob?
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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hisah
#13 Posted : Thursday, April 26, 2012 2:41:42 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
The NIC capital ratios! Isn't CBK concerned? With this result set which I find hard to believe we will see the right issue priced at a premium. IMHO KE banks are not such a nice idea. I still fancy industrials.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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selah
#14 Posted : Thursday, April 26, 2012 2:49:48 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
HFCK & NIC results show banks are really struggling.for instance NIC has borrowed about 2B this quarter alone this was obviousy to shoreup its liquidity..HFCK needs cash if its liquidity ratio is anything to go by.Loans are not growing and provision for bad loans is increasing....This Yr is going to be tough for Banks.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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mkonomtupu
#15 Posted : Thursday, April 26, 2012 3:23:33 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
hisah wrote:
The NIC capital ratios! Isn't CBK concerned? With this result set which I find hard to believe we will see the right issue priced at a premium. IMHO KE banks are not such a nice idea. I still fancy industrials.


KCB was in a similar position 2 years back and we bought the rights issue of 12b so NIC will be okay the rights will be there in June our AGM is on 2nd May we shareholders will raise the 2b and the ratios will improve.
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#16 Posted : Thursday, April 26, 2012 5:31:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
hisah wrote:
The NIC capital ratios! Isn't CBK concerned? With this result set which I find hard to believe we will see the right issue priced at a premium. IMHO KE banks are not such a nice idea. I still fancy industrials.
@SufficientlyP
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#17 Posted : Thursday, April 26, 2012 5:36:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
selah wrote:
HFCK & NIC results show banks are really struggling.for instance NIC has borrowed about 2B this quarter alone this was obviousy to shoreup its liquidity..HFCK needs cash if its liquidity ratio is anything to go by.Loans are not growing and provision for bad loans is increasing....This Yr is going to be tough for Banks.

Word!
@SufficientlyP
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hisah
#18 Posted : Thursday, April 26, 2012 6:12:59 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mkonomtupu wrote:
hisah wrote:
The NIC capital ratios! Isn't CBK concerned? With this result set which I find hard to believe we will see the right issue priced at a premium. IMHO KE banks are not such a nice idea. I still fancy industrials.


KCB was in a similar position 2 years back and we bought the rights issue of 12b so NIC will be okay the rights will be there in June our AGM is on 2nd May we shareholders will raise the 2b and the ratios will improve.

2 words for you - high rates and eurozone disaster. Caution!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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GenghisCapitalLtd
#19 Posted : Thursday, April 26, 2012 7:34:24 PM

Rank: Bona-fide


Joined: 11/2/2011
Posts: 191
Location: Nairobi
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Cant wait for member. I have a feeling they'l hit 4b PBT for Q1

It was close 3.7B. the thing about this counter is Interest and Non-interest income is 10.6B in the first quarter. The aggregate of those two was 31.7B in FY2011. Chances r, going with current trends and an expectation of improved biz environment, Member can cross the 40Bn mark at FY2012 for income. Astounding!!
Follow us on Twitter @genghiscapital
“Be a yardstick of quality. Some people aren’t used to an environment where excellence is expected.” Steve Jobs,iGenius
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cnn
#20 Posted : Thursday, April 26, 2012 7:59:40 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,619
GenghisCapitalLtd wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Cant wait for member. I have a feeling they'l hit 4b PBT for Q1

It was close 3.7B. the thing about this counter is Interest and Non-interest income is 10.6B in the first quarter. The aggregate of those two was 31.7B in FY2011. Chances r, going with current trends and an expectation of improved biz environment, Member can cross the 40Bn mark at FY2012 for income. Astounding!!

KCB seems to have matched member on the income side.
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