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impact on KCB of escalating situation in Sudan
heri
#1 Posted : Tuesday, April 17, 2012 1:55:09 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/14/2011
Posts: 834
Location: nairobi
Hi wazuans

been wondering what the worst case scenario impact would be for KCB if the sudans go to war? any one with such an analysis? please share

what is the level of investments in sudan for KCB?
ngapat
#2 Posted : Tuesday, April 17, 2012 2:09:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/11/2006
Posts: 884
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
QW25091985 wrote:
@cde tell them !

ROOAAR!! ROOAAR!! ROOAAR!! ROOAAR!! ROOAAR!! ROOAAR!! ROOAAR!! ROOAAR!! ROOAAR!! ROOAAR!! ROOAAR!! ROOAAR!! ROOAAR!! ROOAAR!! ROOAAR!! ROOAAR!! ROOAAR!! ROOAAR!! ROOAAR!! ROOAAR!! ROOAAR!!


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

As they pay homage to the real Contrarian of Wazua ;-)

“Invest in yourself. Your career is the engine of your wealth.”
Cde Monomotapa
#3 Posted : Tuesday, April 17, 2012 7:11:46 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Well, when you pick up one end of a stick, so do you do the other. In this situation, yes this is indeed significant business risk. My personal response to this is calm & rational thought. Looking at the profit splits in FY2011, ALL KCB Group subsidiaries contributed 10% to net profits. Thus, SS can comfortably be lowered in expectations untill further notice and I'm certain we won't starve at Group level.
Gathige
#4 Posted : Tuesday, April 17, 2012 7:16:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/29/2011
Posts: 2,242
@ Heri,

KCB has a wide branch network in South Sudan and has presence in every state capital. Due to wide network coverage, it is mostly the bank of choice for Government and 100s of NGO spread all over Sudan. Most of their income mostly is in transaction fees ( money transfers, bank charges, forex etc) and i do not think they are big on loans here due to collateral issues, so they are cushioned from assets losses.

The volatile border areas are a bit far from where the banks operations are and i doubt they will be affected.

FYI South Sudan is their best performing subsidiary. It is a great bank here in Sudan and for those who invest in shares it is a good deal ( for me shares are a no for personal reasons)

My 2 cents
"Things that matter most must never be at the mercy of things that matter least." Goethe
vky
#5 Posted : Tuesday, April 17, 2012 7:36:03 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/17/2010
Posts: 572
worst case scenario for roar is complete halt of the SS operation and as @cde observed that subsidiaries brought in 10% of the profits then a large chunk of this 10% would be eroded in 2012 as the SS subsidiary is the most profitable of all however this would have a marginal effect on group profits for 2012
'One headache for famous medieval holy people was that someone might murder you to acquire your body parts for the relics trade'
the deal
#6 Posted : Tuesday, April 17, 2012 10:32:44 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
South Sudan is material to KCB...that's all can tell you.
Cde Monomotapa
#7 Posted : Wednesday, April 18, 2012 12:06:36 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
In other thinking, neither govts can afford a full scale war at this time. Where will the finance come from? Yes Militia action can persist IMO.
gatoho
#8 Posted : Wednesday, April 18, 2012 12:55:10 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/1/2010
Posts: 511
Location: kandara, Murang'a
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
In other thinking, neither govts can afford a full scale war at this time. Where will the finance come from? Yes Militia action can persist IMO.


Comrade, they might not have the finances, problem is bloody Beberus will happily fund a war just to get a foothold and a share of the reward Sad Sad
Foresight..
kizee1
#9 Posted : Wednesday, April 18, 2012 9:50:09 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
gatoho wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
In other thinking, neither govts can afford a full scale war at this time. Where will the finance come from? Yes Militia action can persist IMO.


Comrade, they might not have the finances, problem is bloody Beberus will happily fund a war just to get a foothold and a share of the reward Sad Sad



beberus are just as broke!
Murenju
#10 Posted : Wednesday, April 18, 2012 5:05:56 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/13/2006
Posts: 94
Location: Nairobi
Answers may be in how many states are being bombed? Are there fuel in those states? My thinking is SS will string contribute to KCB's roar with or without war owing to the heavy presence. Time will tell
Knock hard and it will be opened. Ask and you will be answered. Seek and you shall find.
GGK
#11 Posted : Wednesday, April 18, 2012 6:06:54 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 608
Location: Ruiru
No worry here...
Neither of Sudan can actually afford to fight a war. This is a war of attrition whose outcome will be determined by which of the two faltering economies collapses first than by relative military prowess. A Somali situation is likely, albeit as distant possibility.

As someone pointed, Kenyans were over optimistic of South Sudan prospects but I think this conflict has come at the right time. KCB can easily survive without the meager contribution its operations in SS is contributing to its bottom-line.
"..I am because we are. "― Ubuntu, Umtu,
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