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Safaricom the Sh2.30 Stock
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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It's a season of Downgrades  All in all unless Safaricom cuts it's operational costs i expect full year EBITDA to drop by 15-30% because i expect ARPU to continue falling as inflation and the recent price hike forces customers to switch to cheaper options, the weak Shilling will also continue to pose a challenge thus i expect full year EPS to come in around Sh0.23. So at the current price of Sh3.30-Sh3.35 I rate Safaricom Expense/Sell/Avoid since I don't expect it to gain by more than 15% from this current price levels. My target price is Sh2.30 by June 2012. Read more on this Link http://www.contrarianinv...ot-with-that-price-hike
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,559 Location: nairobi
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i totally agree with the deal on this one. guys buyin @ 3.20 or more may not be knowin what they are doing
COOP 70,000 ABP 15.20; HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/12/2010 Posts: 1,199 Location: Eastlander
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if only this crappy market allowed shorting! NKT! ..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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Rank: User Joined: 8/29/2011 Posts: 1,045 Location: Mtaani
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ehhhh. That cck report really meant allot !
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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This elephant has stopped being innovative and is now and then spending a lot of time tussling with CCK... Anyone else noticed this? KK too is in the same boat, but its biz plans are still expanding. So btw KK and mpesa, KK is more attractive as well as EABL all facing harsh laws and regulations (regulators). http://www.nation.co.ke/...84/-/sbv4e0/-/index.html$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,184 Location: nairobi
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Btw when is the profit warning hitting the air?..i sold all my holding in this alcers share. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 1/20/2010 Posts: 27 Location: kenya
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Safaricom has reached it's peak there are so many players in the field.. they might have been there in the beginning but competition is everywhere. this is a moribund stock. It's like taking a donkey to the river and forcing it to puke the water it just drunk.
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/22/2010 Posts: 510 Location: De egg
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@Mapengo just be gentle as you witness the completion of Thika road lest you miss it . Are you a denist or a kibokoyo . Many have bashed this stock others have praised it . The results are in public domain . Don't touch this stock if you have no meno to chew mpesa . Peace be with you
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/20/2009 Posts: 348
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the deal wrote:It's a season of Downgrades All in all unless Safaricom cuts it's operational costs i expect full year EBITDA to drop by 15-30% because i expect ARPU to continue falling as inflation and the recent price hike forces customers to switch to cheaper options, the weak Shilling will also continue to pose a challenge thus i expect full year EPS to come in around Sh0.23. So at the current price of Sh3.30-Sh3.35 I rate Safaricom Expense/Sell/Avoid since I don't expect it to gain by more than 15% from this current price levels. My target price is Sh2.30 by June 2012. Read more on this Link http://www.contrarianinv...ot-with-that-price-hike
I think Safaricom will be last man standing in this harsh telecom game and that is partly why the stock is catching a bid.Safcom is asserting itself as the leader in the industry and with mpesa,data,cloud computing and tech growing as the economy expands it just means brighter days for Safcom.The worst thing Safcom did was float too many shares during the IPO.I would be a buyer if it dips below 3.10
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
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BIDS 13.20M
Quantity Price Splits Time
1.75M 3.35 3 11:39:10
6.39M 3.30 24 11:39:10
3.05M 3.25 11 11:39:10
2.01M 3.20 11 11:39:10
1,000 3.10 1 11:39:10
ASKS 1.10M
Quantity Price Splits Time
366,200 3.40 1 11:39:10
500,000 3.45 1 11:39:10
232,900 3.50 5 11:39:10
- - - -
- - - -
TRADES
Quantity Price Time
123,300 3.40 11:39:07
10,500 3.40 11:39:07
133,400 3.40 11:39:07
1,100 3.40 11:39:07
6,900 3.40 11:39:03
iko nini?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Visa to launch mobile money transfer in KE by Oct 2012. Quote:Subscribers to the service will be able to send money across borders on the company's network, bypassing telecommunications companies, the daily says. Wow! Direct competition to mpesa and other mobile money transfer telco services. Time to rethink about this mpesa stock. The bright side is mpesa has made the money masters see the other side of mobile money...  http://www.foxbusiness.c...service-in-kenya-report/$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/5/2010 Posts: 54 Location: USA
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Visa works directly with Banks --you need ATM to access cash. Mpesa succeded because of lack banking facilities for Majority of Kenyans. Will visa integrate with Agent's outlets that make Mpesa convenient? It will be good for Visa Card holders who can transfer amoung themselves and their banks. But..this are the minority and may not be Mpesa regular users.
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Rank: User Joined: 1/24/2012 Posts: 1,675 Location: In Da Hood
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[quote=hisah]Visa to launch mobile money transfer in KE by Oct 2012. Quote:Subscribers to the service will be able to send money across borders on the company's network, bypassing telecommunications companies, the daily says. Wow! Direct competition to mpesa and other mobile money transfer telco services. Time to rethink about this mpesa stock. The bright side is mpesa has made the money masters see the other side of mobile money... http://www.foxbusiness.c...ervice-in-kenya-report/[/quote] there's no competition to mpesa coz mpesa has allot of customers and how many people have visa cards...?
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/12/2009 Posts: 312
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QW25091985 wrote:[quote=hisah]Visa to launch mobile money transfer in KE by Oct 2012. Quote:Subscribers to the service will be able to send money across borders on the company's network, bypassing telecommunications companies, the daily says. Wow! Direct competition to mpesa and other mobile money transfer telco services. Time to rethink about this mpesa stock. The bright side is mpesa has made the money masters see the other side of mobile money... http://www.foxbusiness.c...ervice-in-kenya-report/[/quote] there's no competition to mpesa coz mpesa has allot of customers and how many people have visa cards...? This is my two cents worth of input: 1. Why is mpesa so popular? 2. Is it only popular to the poor unbanked and only to those with no access to "visa"? The new provider will beat Mpesa if answers those questions and is able target the market from that angle. 1. to me(representing the average Kenyan) mpesa means, I can pay my power bill from the comfort of my sitting room I needen't waste precious time queing at KPLC offices, I can send money to my kid bro in Kenya Poly , the boy needn't come home every weekend,now I think my aged mun has forgotten how to scratch and upload airtime for her phone since I buy it for her via my phone. If I need something from town, i needn't drive all the way while my freind is working there, I just send him the money pap and voila, I save on fuel and time. Who carries loads of money on their wallet any more while travelling? Jua kali people have a bank everywhere, meaning they can withdraw sell, and 'bank' without the limitations of time. the list is endless. To me that why its soo popular.
Convinience2. Mpesa is no longer for the poor unbanked. Banks are taking advantage of it, companies like KPLC have a "business" number with mpesa and all others you know like insurances etc, hell you can even pay malipo ya uzee( NHIF) with mpesa thses days. Its simply an idea whose time is perfect here. Let them join the fold by bringing in new ideas that will bring something new to the market. My thoughs.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/26/2009 Posts: 1,793
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Wondergirl wrote:
Convinience[/b][/color]
you can even pay malipo ya uzee( NHIF) with mpesa thses days.
errrr, it is NSSF. Good thoughts though. Mpesa is not popular because we are unbanked, it is the connvenience it provides
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/12/2009 Posts: 312
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kenmac wrote:Wondergirl wrote:
Convinience[/b][/color]
you can even pay malipo ya uzee( NHIF) with mpesa thses days.
errrr, it is NSSF. Good thoughts though. Mpesa is not popular because we are unbanked, it is the connvenience it provides Yeah, typpo among many others.. I clicked post too soon...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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This new visa service will be direct competition to western union, moneygram. As its for sending money across borders, mpesa is largely a kenyan affair so unless its also tailored to be convinient like mpesa and actually outdo mpesa then there wont be much effect. I also doubt their ability to innovate beyond mpesa and to win those customers on their side, given the massive headstart and successs that mpesa has acquired. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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Quote:Faster data is Safaricom's reply to Airtel Mobile service provider Safaricom will double its broadband capacity next week opening a new battlefront in the data market. The move comes a month after its main rival Airtel launched a 3G network. "The network will run at 42mega bits per second (mbps) from the current 21mbs and it will be the fastest network in the whole of East and Central Africa," Safaricom CEO Bob Collymore said during the Connected Kenya Summit 2012 in Mombasa. The firm has been under pressure to diversify its revenue streams away from voice following last year's price wars. But its quest to control the data market has in the recent past witnessed increasing competition especially from Telkom Orange and Airtel. Airtel rolled out its 3G network in February putting it at par with Safaricom. But the latter's move to double its capacity is seen as creating a niche in the market. WHERE ARE YOU NOW HATERS! IF I WERE AN AccessKenya Shareholders, i would be more concerned! Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2010 Posts: 11,522 Location: Nairobi
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I don't know why guys in this forum keep on bashing safaricom,as a company its doing very well and it will continue doing so,keep on accumulating this stock and a few years down the line you will never regret... possunt quia posse videntur
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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maka wrote:I don't know why guys in this forum keep on bashing safaricom,as a company its doing very well and it will continue doing so,keep on accumulating this stock and a few years down the line you will never regret... Well said sir! In Greek we say, 'Matariria kwa Shoo!' Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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