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Kenya airways Right Issue
Gordon Gekko
#91 Posted : Monday, March 19, 2012 9:13:51 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
@mwekez@ji, an airline need not have a 51% local shareholding to be designated a national carrier. The Government can simply declare an airline a national airline regardless of local shareholding. Problems occur when an airline with say 48% local holding (say KQ) is designated national when Air Kenya (say owned 100% by bikini) is not accorded that status.
guru267
#92 Posted : Tuesday, March 20, 2012 7:56:14 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mwekez@ji wrote:
Post rights, the share should trade at a PE of >12 to reflect the expected future incomes.


@mwekez@ji did you know the 20 billion KQ rights issue will not contribute to earnings in anyway.. It is merely a DOWN PAYMENT/DEPOSIT for the planes it wants to buy.. They need almost 300billion to get the planes they want..

What are the future expected earnings from companies like kenol, kengen, KCB and the rest??

These companies will do better than KQ will ever do in terms of growth and yet they all trade at a P/E of 5-6..
Going by this basis it literally means KQ may even have a P/E of 4 after the rights...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mwekez@ji
#93 Posted : Tuesday, March 20, 2012 8:47:06 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
guru267 wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Post rights, the share should trade at a PE of >12 to reflect the expected future incomes.


@mwekez@ji did you know the 20 billion KQ rights issue will not contribute to earnings in anyway.. It is merely a DOWN PAYMENT/DEPOSIT for the planes it wants to buy.. They need almost 300billion to get the planes they want..

What are the future expected earnings from companies like kenol, kengen, KCB and the rest??

These companies will do better than KQ will ever do in terms of growth and yet they all trade at a P/E of 5-6..
Going by this basis it literally means KQ may even have a P/E of 4 after the rights...


@guru, did you know that making down payment is a step in acquiring the planes required in achieving the ambitious expansion plan. Raising debt is the next step in case you dint know!

If this expansion plan will result to outstanding returns, nothing will stop the share from trading at the PE of >12 in the initial years. Certainly, as the returns set in, the PE will go down to probably the level you are talking about and investors will have made enough money to laugh all the way to the bank.
guru267
#94 Posted : Tuesday, March 20, 2012 9:10:07 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mwekez@ji wrote:

@guru, did you know that making down payment is a step in acquiring the planes required in achieving the ambitious expansion plan. Raising debt is the next step in case you dint know!


From the post above it seems that you are implying that KQ can handle the 200billion of new debt..

I wonder where they'll find the 20billion interest payments every year & that is not even inclusive of the principal amount...
I also would like you to observe the oil prices in the next few years.. You can ask @hisah about that..

Do you really believe there will be enough revenue to cover just these two obligations??

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mwekez@ji
#95 Posted : Tuesday, March 20, 2012 9:26:24 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
guru267 wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:

@guru, did you know that making down payment is a step in acquiring the planes required in achieving the ambitious expansion plan. Raising debt is the next step in case you dint know!


From the post above it seems that you are implying that KQ can handle the 200billion of new debt..

I wonder where they'll find the 20billion interest payments every year & that is not even inclusive of the principal amount...
I also would like you to observe the oil prices in the next few years.. You can ask @hisah about that..

Do you really believe there will be enough revenue to cover just these two obligations??



Why not! This discussion was covered here earlier

The planes should be able to service the debt. They may however explore getting a moratorium period on the repayments to give time for the planes to start generating income
mwekez@ji
#96 Posted : Tuesday, March 20, 2012 9:28:37 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
VituVingiSana wrote:
sparkly wrote:
StatMeister wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
StatMeister wrote:

Over next 5 years, they borrow 180b. At 10% interest, sounds like interest payments work out at 18b. I dont see how doubling operations will generate additional operating profits of even 10b. KQ keeps making more money from derivatives than from operations.

1) The rates are much lower than 10% of USD loans. Probably closer to 5% coz borrowed from US EXIM Bank.
2) The 180bn is not borrowed in one go but gradually as planes are delivered. Therefore the additional payments are made after more planes are in service.


This is an even bigger problem since KQ has to either hedge the USD or take impairments even now and then.

Then, KQ annuals will shift focus from operations to performance of fuel and forex hedges ...

Aren't the majority of KQ's collections in USD?
Their tickets are also in USD equivalent.
Even local flights are priced in USD - converted to KES for payments - there is little currency risk. Most of KQ's interest costs, lease costs, fuel costs, etc are in USD

guru267
#97 Posted : Tuesday, March 20, 2012 9:44:38 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
mwekez@ji wrote:
The planes should be able to service the debt.


The directors must be factoring in stable oil prices and stable ticket prices..

What happens when competition brings ticket prices down and global demand drives oil prices up??

What about austerity in Europe??
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mwekez@ji
#98 Posted : Tuesday, March 20, 2012 10:07:19 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
guru267 wrote:

The directors must be factoring in stable oil prices and stable ticket prices..



I highly doubt

Anyway, the IM is coming next week
maka
#99 Posted : Tuesday, March 20, 2012 10:54:43 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
This may either be one big success story or an outright disaster...with all the uncertainities looming around its hard knowing what the end result will be...hope it turns out well though...smile
possunt quia posse videntur
mlennyma
#100 Posted : Tuesday, March 20, 2012 10:55:56 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
The plane touches a low of 14 today b4 the sack rights!!this should be the 8th wonder of the world.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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