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KCB 2011 FYR: Roars above other banks Dividend 1.85
guru267
#31 Posted : Friday, March 02, 2012 10:18:18 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
selah wrote:
The interest rate started rising in Dec the last month of Banks FY..


How about you get your facts right.. The CBR rate started rising in september.. Before Q4 2011 began...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
tuvok
#32 Posted : Friday, March 02, 2012 10:58:32 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/2/2007
Posts: 536
Nonetheless..

LOAR!
selah
#33 Posted : Friday, March 02, 2012 11:20:08 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
guru267 wrote:
selah wrote:
The interest rate started rising in Dec the last month of Banks FY..


How about you get your facts right.. The CBR rate started rising in september.. Before Q4 2011 began...


In sept it was a marginal increase from 6.25 to 7% then I think it went up again to 11% b4 picking up the pace in Nov & Dec it was 16.5 and 18%.

From Nov(excuse my earlier error) the cost of funds has been high and I will repeat the Q1 will be decisive in knowing which bank was creative in managing this challenge...for instance in a bank like HFCK recorded a loss in cash from operations and in NIC its a decline.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
mwanahisa
#34 Posted : Friday, March 02, 2012 11:56:51 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
selah wrote:
..for instance in a bank like HFCK recorded a loss in cash from operations and in NIC its a decline.


I trust that this is hypothetical. HF's cost of funds will not rise as dramatically as you may expect. You will recall that they raised about 7B in a corporate bond offering sometime back, most of which was taken up at a fixed rate.

They will also now be operating current accounts which over time will bring down part of the expected increase in the cost of funds.
selah
#35 Posted : Friday, March 02, 2012 12:22:50 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
mwanahisa wrote:
selah wrote:
..for instance in a bank like HFCK recorded a loss in cash from operations and in NIC its a decline.


I trust that this is hypothetical. HF's cost of funds will not rise as dramatically as you may expect. You will recall that they raised about 7B in a corporate bond offering sometime back, most of which was taken up at a fixed rate.

They will also now be operating current accounts which over time will bring down part of the expected increase in the cost of funds.


IF you can recall HFCK has been running adverts to attract depositors...I think I saw a 9% somewhere I cant recall...Even the MD intimated they were sourcing for external funding to cushion themselves from the high cost of funds locally.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
mwanahisa
#36 Posted : Friday, March 02, 2012 12:45:36 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
@selah, running adverts to attract deposits at 9% when you are lending at close to 20% is very different from what you had intimated in your earlier post specifically regarding HF. Incidentally the race for deposits is not unique to HF. CFC Stanbic are doing the same. I & M were also offering double digit interest rates for deposits as recently as last month.

I appreciate that net interest rate margins are thinning but this will not necessarily lead to an "operating loss".

HF were particularly lucky (or had excellent foresight) when they issued their bond as they locked in reasonably low rates. As you may be aware they were planning to issue a 25 year (you may correct me on the duration) bond, but the current cost is too prohibitive. It is for this reason that they are now considering raising the funds from abroad.
selah
#37 Posted : Friday, March 02, 2012 1:23:15 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
@mwanahisa Looking at HFCK cashflow its a negative and its liquidity ratio has an excess of 9% down from 35.7% last year...The bank needs cash and given the liquidity tightening by CBK be assured Like KCB last year HFCK might announce a Loan deal with an international bank.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
mwanahisa
#38 Posted : Friday, March 02, 2012 2:25:40 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Selah. I would support such a strategy. So far HF has put borrowed funds to good use growing profits by one of the highest rates amongst Kenyan banks over the last 3 years. The appetite for home loans is clearly there - just not at the 20%+ ruling currently. So if they can borrow internationally and onlend at reasonable rates, that will be great. I just hope they will be able to hedge against the associated currency fluctuation risks.

selah wrote:
@mwanahisa Looking at HFCK cashflow its a negative and its liquidity ratio has an excess of 9% down from 35.7% last year...The bank needs cash and given the liquidity tightening by CBK be assured Like KCB last year HFCK might announce a Loan deal with an international bank.

slykat
#39 Posted : Friday, March 02, 2012 5:20:23 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 359
"These were very muscular Results. The Inflection in the Regional Subsidiaries Earnings Curve [Negative to Positive] is noteworthy and Regional Trade is a Rising Tide. I think it deserves to Trade towards a PE X 2011 FY of 10.00 which targets 37.2." Aly-Khan concludes.

That is rather unrealistically bullish under the current economic climate. Any believers?
Aguytrying
#40 Posted : Monday, March 05, 2012 12:13:02 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Demand of 800,000 shares at 22.00.

Heavy supply of 1,100,000 shares at 22.50.

What will happend
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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