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KenolKobil FY2011 results pretax profit jumps 74 pct
Gordon Gekko
#41 Posted : Wednesday, February 29, 2012 7:54:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Diversifying to protect revenue. Not a good sign if you asked me. Stick to your core business and do it well.

www.nation.co.ke/busines...2/-/131woc8/-/index.html
Jamani
#42 Posted : Wednesday, February 29, 2012 8:47:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
http://www.businessdaily.../-/m951cfz/-/index.html

Extract....
“We have grown big over the years on our own but now we need to bring in a strategic foreign investor to further expand our business on the continent,” Jacob Segman, Kenol’s managing director, told an investor briefing Wednesday without giving details.
The oil marketer did not say whether its top shareholders will cede shares to accommodate the strategic investors or if it will create new shares to tap the high net worth shareholder.
Analysts say major shareholders are unlikely to sell off their stakes in the highly profitable company, arguing that the strategic investor could be accommodated by creating new shares or by going into a joint venture with Kenol.
“The company is undervalued and current shareholders can only sell their stakes by attaching a premium to the share price. A joint venture or creation of new shares is a more probable option,” said Eric Musau, an analyst at Standard Investment Bank.
...............If Kenol creates new shares to accommodate the targeted investors, it will follow the path taken by companies such as Equity Bank and ScanGroup that have benefited from new capital and expertise from strategic investors.
Aguytrying
#43 Posted : Wednesday, February 29, 2012 9:32:13 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
This is the second time segman has drummed up this strategic partner plan. It could be going down sooner than we all thing. Could the gurus please break down the possible outcomes of the different scenarious on eps and share price and any other effects on the share and company.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
guru267
#44 Posted : Wednesday, February 29, 2012 10:17:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
please break down the possible outcomes of the different scenarious on eps and share price and any other effects on the share and company.


I will break it down to cases where the strategic investor gets 10%, 20% & 30% of kenol kobil by diluting current shareholder..

At 10% dilution
Kenol will have to add 165mn new shares bringing the EPS down to 2bob.. The shareholders will love this one because their wealth and control is maintained plus they get improvement in earnings from the Strategic investors advice..

At 20% dilution
Kenol will have to add 370mn shares bringing the EPS down to 1.75bob.. This move will be shunned by the market as it will probably lead to a fall in dividend and the risk is higher if the investor underperforms in his duties..
Although the share will still be cheap at 11.5

At 30% dilution
Kenol will have to add 650mn shares bringing EPS down to 1.5bob.. This will mean giving up a lot of control in the company to a stranger & DPS will fall to 60cents from 1bob ..
And yet even with 30% dilution the stock looks relatively CHEAP at 11.5
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Cde Monomotapa
#45 Posted : Wednesday, February 29, 2012 10:43:23 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Can I throw in a name like Engen SA? Atleast they were ready to partner and enter the Zim mkt by buying out an exiting Shell/BP.
the deal
#46 Posted : Wednesday, February 29, 2012 11:01:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Can I throw in a name like Engen SA? Atleast they were ready to partner and enter the Zim mkt by buying out an exiting Shell/BP.

I agree Engen would be a better partner...they have a strong precense in most of this countries KK wan't to venture into.
Aguytrying
#47 Posted : Wednesday, February 29, 2012 11:46:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
guru267 wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
please break down the possible outcomes of the different scenarious on eps and share price and any other effects on the share and company.


I will break it down to cases where the strategic investor gets 10%, 20% & 30% of kenol kobil by diluting current shareholder..

At 10% dilution
Kenol will have to add 165mn new shares bringing the EPS down to 2bob.. The shareholders will love this one because their wealth and control is maintained plus they get improvement in earnings from the Strategic investors advice..

At 20% dilution
Kenol will have to add 370mn shares bringing the EPS down to 1.75bob.. This move will be shunned by the market as it will probably lead to a fall in dividend and the risk is higher if the investor underperforms in his duties..
Although the share will still be cheap at 11.5

At 30% dilution
Kenol will have to add 650mn shares bringing EPS down to 1.5bob.. This will mean giving up a lot of control in the company to a stranger & DPS will fall to 60cents from 1bob ..
And yet even with 30% dilution the stock looks relatively CHEAP at 11.5


This is well thought out.
Why cant the strategic investor buy from the market, even if it will take a long time,

or offer a bid to one or two of the top share holders that's too good to refuse.

I assume creation of new shares, that will be bought, will not increase EPS, but will increase shareholder funds and capitalization.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
itz
#48 Posted : Thursday, March 01, 2012 2:09:42 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/20/2009
Posts: 348
Gordon Gekko wrote:
Diversifying to protect revenue. Not a good sign if you asked me. Stick to your core business and do it well.

www.nation.co.ke/busines...2/-/131woc8/-/index.html


i totally agree with you @Gekko.i dont understood why kenyan companies are all rushing to real estate for revenue growth.Does this mean that their businesses in those particular industries are fully mature.They should stick to their core business.Good companies and good managements stick to their main core business.
the deal
#49 Posted : Thursday, March 01, 2012 8:15:13 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
If you can go to the facebook fanpage of my blog, I posted a video of yesterdays investor briefing...it's full of insights. Theyre going into real estate in Rwanda and Ethiopia not Kenya.
VituVingiSana
#50 Posted : Thursday, March 01, 2012 8:46:30 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
Kihangeri wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
jerry wrote:
jerry wrote:
When are books closing?

I thought final ought to be bigger than interim.
Why?


VVS.....You don't sound very inspiring any more.

Which other company issues a higher interim dividend than the Final?

This thread should be allowed to rest like Njenga Karume.
Williamson gave 50/- as Interim. I would be very happy to get that as the Final.

I don't have the info at my fingertips but there are many firms that have paid either:

1) Larger Interim divs vs final
2) Interim divs then no final
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mkeiy
#51 Posted : Thursday, March 01, 2012 9:19:52 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/27/2012
Posts: 851
Location: Nairobi
itz wrote:
Gordon Gekko wrote:
Diversifying to protect revenue. Not a good sign if you asked me. Stick to your core business and do it well.

www.nation.co.ke/busines...2/-/131woc8/-/index.html


i totally agree with you @Gekko.i dont understood why kenyan companies are all rushing to real estate for revenue growth.Does this mean that their businesses in those particular industries are fully mature.They should stick to their core business.Good companies and good managements stick to their main core business.


I don't see anything wrong with diversification. If Samsung can be no. 1 in electronics, then go ahead a build the tallest building in the world, why can't any of our companies do all that makes money?

WHY?
mlennyma
#52 Posted : Thursday, March 01, 2012 9:28:51 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,184
Location: nairobi
Kk didnt excite as many thought so we are soon returning to 9.50-10.50 range.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Jamani
#53 Posted : Thursday, March 01, 2012 9:41:30 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
A prudent investor is one that diversifies.
VituVingiSana
#54 Posted : Thursday, March 01, 2012 9:57:17 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
itz wrote:
Gordon Gekko wrote:
Diversifying to protect revenue. Not a good sign if you asked me. Stick to your core business and do it well.

www.nation.co.ke/busines...2/-/131woc8/-/index.html


i totally agree with you @Gekko.i dont understood why kenyan companies are all rushing to real estate for revenue growth.Does this mean that their businesses in those particular industries are fully mature.They should stick to their core business.Good companies and good managements stick to their main core business.

This is NOT 'new' real estate development but the bolt-on additions. What this means is that KK is using its CURRENT land bank to build new buildings. Check out the K1 KK on Ojijo Rd. There is a new shop/restaurant coming up. The rent KK will get will be in addition to the current sales from fuel.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Gordon Gekko
#55 Posted : Thursday, March 01, 2012 2:09:44 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
@vitu mob, the Ethiopia development is residential, unless my info is wrong. BTW did you hear the thud this morning when the share hit 11? If I can get cum div at sub 10, it will be Christmas come early.
VituVingiSana
#56 Posted : Thursday, March 01, 2012 2:21:17 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
Gordon Gekko wrote:
@vitu mob, the Ethiopia development is residential, unless my info is wrong. BTW did you hear the thud this morning when the share hit 11? If I can get cum div at sub 10, it will be Christmas come early.

Mos Def! The strategic investor will probably want a specific part of KK, that is we can keep the upside of the court case against KPC.

I believe all in all, KK's EPS of 2.2 is sustainable thus this is a true PER of 5
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
FUNKY
#57 Posted : Friday, March 02, 2012 10:18:50 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
I cannot believe Kenol is trading at 10.50 today.
Gordon Gekko
#58 Posted : Friday, March 02, 2012 11:42:53 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
FUNKY wrote:
I cannot believe Kenol is trading at 10.50 today.


Sub 10 baby. This, to use the words of that mamasita in the Mbuzi 6 thread, is better than sex.
Aguytrying
#59 Posted : Monday, March 05, 2012 11:58:19 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
I've noted something about the share trading of Kenol kobil since results and dividend announcement.

It is aggressively being supported at 11.00.

Just watch it, whenever demand dries out at 11.00, new higher demand comes in. You'll even at times see supply being higher than demand but the sellers rarely going below 11.00(except the odd one selling at 10.50 once in a while)

Anyway, it is reminiscent of the support i saw at the test of 9.00 bob, though less agrresive.

I'm waiting for it either at 10.00 cum div(optimistic), or 9.60 ex div(also optimistic).

The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
jerry
#60 Posted : Monday, March 05, 2012 12:22:13 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
@Aguytrying. Can't sell at less than 12/= cum dvdd. We look fwd to interim after final dvdd. I don't expect sub 10 any time soon but I think u r a trader.
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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