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The Illusion About High Dividend Yields in NSE
young
#1 Posted : Sunday, February 26, 2012 12:09:07 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Ladies and Gentlemen,

I see a lot of posts these days ascetaining that a good dividend yield is 10% and above of the current share price.

Be aware that this is an aberration. The standard benchmarch of a good dividend yield is 4% to 6%.

The double digit dividend yield you see is abnormal and peculiar to NSE.

It is caused by depressed share price which is attributable to the bearish mood of the market at the moment traceable to external factors which we all know, one of which is political uncertainties in Kenya.

When the chips are down NSE stocks will be better priced and the dividend yields will drop.
This is however the best time to buy NSE stocks especially end of Q3 /Q4 2012 as you will get good companies at very cheap prices.

Most of them will be double their current value in 2014/15

The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
guru267
#2 Posted : Sunday, February 26, 2012 8:00:04 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
young wrote:
The double digit dividend yield you see is abnormal and peculiar to NSE.

It is caused by depressed share price which is attributable to the bearish mood of the market at the moment traceable to external factors which we all know, one of which isa political uncertainties in Kenya.


@young to be honest you are starting to sound ilke a short term player..
For a long term investor anytime prices are "depressed" should be the time to be buying like crazy...

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
jerry
#3 Posted : Sunday, February 26, 2012 9:52:54 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
@guru267. @young is just advising the speculators (short-termers!). I think it's always true that 4th-Q is BEST for buying regardless of elections.
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
young
#4 Posted : Sunday, February 26, 2012 10:11:37 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
jerry wrote:
@guru267. @young is just advising the speculators (short-termers!). I think it's always true that 4th-Q is BEST for buying regardless of elections.


I have been in your market since 2004. Quite unlike other bources 95 percent of the counters announce their year end or half year result within the first 3 months of the year (Jan - March). The anticipation of the results naturally drives prices. They start to even our in Q2 and become low and stable from end Q3 / Q4.
A long termer like me is also interested in buying stocks at a good price, so if I have some bob to buy stocks I will wait a few mother later to pick them even cheaper than the prevailing prices.
Agreed the market is depressed, it will be depress further in the months ahead. For example it makes more sence not to buy Eqty now at 19.95 cum 1.00 or 1.25 dividend rather than 16.5 in Sept or oct 2012.
For both long and short term investor it is not good to take position during the euphoria or party time (Jan - March).

If my advise or strategy as a long termner is useful to short term investors, that is very ok by me in the spirit of Wazua.

The point is the abonormal dividend yields 7% and above will not be sustainable on the long term when stocks recover.


The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
Cde Monomotapa
#5 Posted : Sunday, February 26, 2012 10:39:37 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Best buy last year was more KCB @14.7 smile cum 1.5=10% cum 1.75=13% on that purchase smile only in KE as @young says. Here pessimism goes beyond extreme.
youcan'tstopusnow
#6 Posted : Sunday, February 26, 2012 1:34:01 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Best buy last year was more KCB @14.7 smile cum 1.5=10% cum 1.75=13% on that purchase smile only in KE as @young says. Here pessimism goes beyond extreme.

KenolKobil at 9 piasmile
And if anyone is a longtermer as they say, the 'high' dividend yields WILL be maintained for them as they will continue holding after buying at a cheap price, ama? I mean, we've heard of guys getting higher dividends (on absolute terms) than the buying price.
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
QW25091985
#7 Posted : Sunday, February 26, 2012 4:55:39 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/24/2012
Posts: 1,675
Location: In Da Hood
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Best buy last year was more KCB @14.7 smile cum 1.5=10% cum 1.75=13% on that purchase smile only in KE as @young says. Here pessimism goes beyond extreme.

KenolKobil at 9 piasmile
And if anyone is a longtermer as they say, the 'high' dividend yields WILL be maintained for them as they will continue holding after buying at a cheap price, ama? I mean, we've heard of guys getting higher dividends (on absolute terms) than the buying price.



lol. You guyz make investin look so easy.
youcan'tstopusnow
#8 Posted : Sunday, February 26, 2012 5:48:50 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
QW, you make FOREX trading look easy;-)
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
youcan'tstopusnow
#9 Posted : Sunday, February 26, 2012 5:50:25 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
QW, you make FOREX trading look easy;-)
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
Aguytrying
#10 Posted : Sunday, February 26, 2012 9:19:09 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
I totally concur with young, its the best of both worlds. Get dividends as you await long term capital gains.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Aguytrying
#11 Posted : Sunday, February 26, 2012 9:22:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
I totally concur with young, its the best of both worlds. Get dividends as you await long term capital gains.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
anika66
#12 Posted : Sunday, February 26, 2012 9:52:35 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/25/2010
Posts: 158
QW25091985 wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Best buy last year was more KCB @14.7 smile cum 1.5=10% cum 1.75=13% on that purchase smile only in KE as @young says. Here pessimism goes beyond extreme.

KenolKobil at 9 piasmile
And if anyone is a longtermer as they say, the 'high' dividend yields WILL be maintained for them as they will continue holding after buying at a cheap price, ama? I mean, we've heard of guys getting higher dividends (on absolute terms) than the buying price.



lol. You guyz make investin look so easy.


We buy shares to make money, not to hold them to internity. If a stock price goes higher than the expected divided, sell it. Take your profit and wait for a few months to pass and you will get it again at almost the same low price. Repeat this yearly. We are in stocks for business and the business is to get returns from investment. Holding longterm is okay for those who have no time to flip their money over but if you are new in the business and you are keen on growing your money quickly flip it, flip so long as you are breaking even when you do it. However I suggest you consider the commissions you are charged when you buy and when you sell, so long as you factor these and you can still make a good profit in capital gains, well and good. In the bear market my target rate of return is at least 15% after factoring in commissions
Keeping it all in the family
Cde Monomotapa
#13 Posted : Monday, February 27, 2012 12:34:32 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Best buy last year was more KCB @14.7 smile cum 1.5=10% cum 1.75=13% on that purchase smile only in KE as @young says. Here pessimism goes beyond extreme.

KenolKobil at 9 piasmile
And if anyone is a longtermer as they say, the 'high' dividend yields WILL be maintained for them as they will continue holding after buying at a cheap price, ama? I mean, we've heard of guys getting higher dividends (on absolute terms) than the buying price.

That does happen n' that's some good stuff to earn dividends over & above capital invested. Gotta put in work though to achieve that kind of HOLD horizon. You know, that really long & patient capital. We'll get there 1 day comrade.
erifloss
#14 Posted : Monday, February 27, 2012 8:33:19 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
I concur with Young on this. Recently had a conversation with a land baron of sorts & a guy from a fairly large investment firm & what i came out with was that the best strategy for any investor is always flip & split & that you can only be a real long term investor if & when you are the owner of the firm or asset. We are all in it for the profit motive & whether i make the same in a month, months, year or years, i'll still have made what i wanted.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
VituVingiSana
#15 Posted : Monday, February 27, 2012 9:55:29 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,129
Location: Nairobi
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
QW, you make FOREX trading look easy;-)

LOL... And the score is You 3 - 0 QW Liar Liar Liar
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
QW25091985
#16 Posted : Monday, February 27, 2012 10:12:47 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/24/2012
Posts: 1,675
Location: In Da Hood
VituVingiSana wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
QW, you make FOREX trading look easy;-)

LOL... And the score is You 3 - 0 QW Liar Liar Liar


sometimes when i dnt agree i usually do this : ┌П┐(⌣́_⌣̀)┌П┐
young
#17 Posted : Monday, February 27, 2012 12:15:16 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Please let us not divert this thread to something else.
It is all about NSE stocks not FOREX trading.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
dunkang
#18 Posted : Sunday, January 20, 2013 11:41:47 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
As per @young, BAT is still cheap (Div. Yield 6% at 500 bob per share and 30 bob dividend).

A 1:10 BAT split will see wanjikus stream in like nobody's business. Currently, an investor needs atleast 55K to just afford the minimum allowed 100 BAT shares.
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

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