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Is Safaricom responsible?
Wakanyugi
#31 Posted : Tuesday, February 21, 2012 5:38:44 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/3/2007
Posts: 1,635
@MaichBlack

I believe we have beaten this horse enough and ask to sign of too. Before I too, here are the answers to a few of your questions:

1. You challenge me to name a product that has been affected by the change in velocity of money. I already gave the example of sugar prices in the country, a good that used to be a luxury but has rapidly become an inelastic necessity.

2. You insist your cucu buying sugar weekly instead of monthly has no effect on prices - yes it does a) when she used to receive money via an unpredictable schedule she would sometimes forgo sugar (and no, don't argue that she would simply buy more when the money finally arrived) b) change in the purchase cycle has an effect on an industry like sugar production which is in turn dependent on inelastic production factors like weather and fixed plant.

3. There is one reason why Governor Ndungu would ignore the inflation causing effect of a variation in money velocity - the fact that with time the market will adjust to meet the demand occurring out of phase. But it takes time.

4. Finally markets normally respond to signals like demand which in turn are indicated by change in prices - not the other way round. These price changes are not always caused by increased production costs. Sometimes they are caused by a temporary shortage owing to inefficiencies in the demand/supply pipeline. As a result too much money ends up chasing too few goods - in other words, inflation.

P.S. As for that crack about smooth roads causing accidents, they do. It is one of the prices we pay for having good roads - the benefit may ultimately outweigh the price but it does not discount it. Just like we were told, for years, that new technology does not cause loss in jobs. Now economists finally come around to the fact that in fact it does. M-pesa causes temporary inflation, should we therefore do without it it? NO.

Have a good day

"The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)
Drunkard
#32 Posted : Tuesday, February 21, 2012 6:03:05 PM
Rank: User

Joined: 5/3/2011
Posts: 559
I strongly believe in objective analysis at the same time, I understand that economic theories most of the time reflect a line of thinking which sometimes could be wrong so dropping an economic theory to argue a point is sometimes not objective, you can site a theory but we cannot based an entire argument on a theory.

We not only have to see it from theories stand point but also real life situation and if you understand inflation then this discussion was won a long time ago.

@MaichBlack, you're right in some ways but, I am afraid you know Wakanyugi is very right on the effects of the velocity of money but you're arguing for the sake of it. First we know that velocity of money can cause short time inflation based on the movement along the money supply curve, we also know that increase in velocity of money cannot equal to increase in supply of money, but the impact of movement along the curve can be felt in short term just like increase in supply of money.

Now lets go back to Mkeiy point, he is right in a sense and this is not based on theories in economics, Mpesa increase the availability of money, call it liquidity of the economy. Stretch this to probability theories and think through it, you do not need probability models to understand that spliting money to many people increases the chances of spending than when I hold all the money in Nairobi and only come home to my village end month.
Aguytrying
#33 Posted : Tuesday, February 21, 2012 10:36:30 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Economics 202. I'm in class here, awesome.

@genghis. Deal and QW would cause some very nasty fights on this thread where there are divergent views, hauwajui vizuri. smile (wazua banter)
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
the deal
#34 Posted : Tuesday, February 21, 2012 11:46:30 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Mpesa enables Kenyans...1. to have easy Access to their cash--->product penetration>banking sector...people don't carry cash in their wallets these days...as long as u have mpesa you can pay for goods and services...its the new wallet 2. Allows them to easily circulate their cash among themselves 3. Stimulates Spending (demand driven inflation) bcos of 1. Just try it yourself put 5K in your Mpesa and another one in your savings a/c. Just watch how fast you will be able to circulate and spend the 5k on your Mpesa. I dont keep money on my mpesa bcos of 3.
Aguytrying
#35 Posted : Wednesday, February 22, 2012 8:49:23 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Btw its true. When i have cash on mpesa i have a tendency to spend more on airtime than when i don't.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
kenmac
#36 Posted : Wednesday, February 22, 2012 9:47:02 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/26/2009
Posts: 1,793
interesting read.

The major trigger of inflation was the low interest rates on borrowing that cbk used to spur economic growth. This triggerred a wave of investments and mass borrowing.

E.g. As people borrowed for construction projects, they increased their spending by buying materials and hiring labour. The fundis and suppliers had more money and increased their spending. The money ended up in the villages through mpesa transmissions. With increased disposable income, matched with unchanged supply of goods, prices had to be adjusted upwards to meet demand at a higher equilibrium. This triggered inflation but was commensurate with the increased investments.

So did mpesa contribute to inflation. Yes, partly. By increasing the efficiency of money velocity, the market was more responsive to the increased money supply from borrowings. Without mpesa, there would have been a delayed inflationary effects, but it would have still caught up. Therefore, mpesa did partly contribute in accelerating the rate of inflation through increased velocity. However, mpesa had no effect on the amount of money supply, which was the core source of inflation.
......Ecclesiastes
GenghisCapitalLtd
#37 Posted : Wednesday, February 22, 2012 12:07:47 PM

Rank: Bona-fide

Joined: 11/2/2011
Posts: 191
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
Economics 202. I'm in class here, awesome.

@genghis. Deal and QW would cause some very nasty fights on this thread where there are divergent views, hauwajui vizuri. smile (wazua banter)

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Wakiskia hivyo si watatupa their two cents chap chap. Naona the deal ameandika and I do support point 3 yake, I have fallen victim to that on many occassions. Aguytrying ur two cents?
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“Be a yardstick of quality. Some people aren’t used to an environment where excellence is expected.” Steve Jobs,iGenius
Aguytrying
#38 Posted : Wednesday, February 22, 2012 2:26:07 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
GenghisCapitalLtd wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Economics 202. I'm in class here, awesome.

@genghis. Deal and QW would cause some very nasty fights on this thread where there are divergent views, hauwajui vizuri. smile (wazua banter)

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Wakiskia hivyo si watatupa their two cents chap chap. Naona the deal ameandika and I do support point 3 yake, I have fallen victim to that on many occassions. Aguytrying ur two cents?

here i'm more of a spectator, learning about cause of inflationary pressures and money velocity.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
poundfoolish
#39 Posted : Wednesday, February 22, 2012 4:12:12 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/2/2009
Posts: 2,458
Location: Nairobi
my head is spinning.. and im horribly lost
but i just beg to ask.. whats the definition of inflation..?

then i ask.. has MPesa increased the goods or the amount of money...?

The only explanation is that Mpesa has probably taken money that was relatively hard to 'reach' from banks and 'banked' it within everybody's reach..
Too much liquid out here..

then again if i have 30K to spend in a month.. and it would take me 5 days to access the 30K as compared to 10days previously..does it mean i can purchase more goods? Its still my 30K

Why didnt this phenomena by MPesa hit during the earlier years?..only now..?

as VV puts it.. the effects of Mpesa should be very minimal to inflation.. unless MPESA agents are creating virtual money..

that brings me to the question.. float or no float.. can MPesa create virtual money..? i can give the guy 4K ask him to 'load' me 8K promising ill pay back the extra 4K immediately the deal goes through.
Wakanyugi
#40 Posted : Wednesday, February 22, 2012 6:26:35 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/3/2007
Posts: 1,635
[quote=poundfoolish]my head is spinning.. and im horribly lost
but i just beg to ask..

Not to re-open this debate, but let me see if I can put your spinning head to some kind of rest:

whats the definition of inflation..?

The popular definition of inflation is 'too much money chasing two few goods. But even that should be taken with a pinch of salt as the Forbes piece posted earlier by Genghis indicated.


then i ask.. has MPesa increased the goods or the amount of money...?

Neither...but, see below

The only explanation is that Mpesa has probably taken money that was relatively hard to 'reach' from banks and 'banked' it within everybody's reach..
Too much liquid out here..

This is true. Mpesa has enabled money that would have been kept under the proverbial mattress to circulate. However I don't think this has a very big effect on inflation, in my opinion.

The big effect, IMHO, is from the fact that M-pesa has enabled money to pass through more hands than would have been the case before. In my explanation, each change of hands is equivalent to a commercial transaction where good/services are demanded and supplied.

Therefore a demand/supply transaction that would have happened say once before a tranche money comes to 'rest' happens, say, three times or more (same money) within a set time period. In an ideal situation this new demand would create wealth and economic growth. In a less than ideal situation, like ours, it also creates demand inflation, which is temporary.


You could argue that by increasing velocity of money, M-pesa creates virtual money - just like banks create virtual money by giving out a loan. Since the economy is not flexible enough to produce the goods/services this extra money demands (money is only good if exchanged for something) inflation occurs.


"The opposite of a correct statement is a false statement. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth." (Niels Bohr)
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