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hisah
#2171 Posted : Wednesday, February 15, 2012 7:20:41 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Bullish extreme readings continue to warn of an impending reversal...



Assuming towards US election time the markets will be on a sell-side coupled with an persian offensive mission, a republican will most likely be president and vice versa if these conditions don't occur.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, February 16, 2012 7:25 AM | Reason: Not specified
hisah
#2172 Posted : Wednesday, February 15, 2012 7:58:13 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Iran trumpets nuclear advances, deepening standoff with West - http://www.reuters.com/a...an-idUSTRE81E0RF20120215
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#2173 Posted : Wednesday, February 15, 2012 9:03:33 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
NASDAQ too overbought on daily chart... A selling bout is coming.

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#2174 Posted : Thursday, February 16, 2012 1:35:39 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Brent oil priced in euros. Oops! Euroland is experiencing a recession already & an ugly debt bomb. This cocktail is absolutely poisonous!? Once the persian tensions are resolved, oil prices will nosedive just like in july 2008 as well as global stocks. The lofty markets have lost it fundamentally!

Courtesy - zerohedge & bloomberg.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#2175 Posted : Thursday, February 16, 2012 10:31:51 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Mainat wrote:
KK- I know what a credit event is, but the criteria for defining something as a credit event is very complex. Even if your house burnt down, please note that an insurer only pays out when they are 100% sure that it was an event that fits their criteria for paying out.
Greece will fall over because its society might balk at the required changes.


This bloomberg article says a lot and why a credit event is coming. Note how the top 5 US banks have misrepresented their euroland CDS exposure.

http://www.bloomberg.com...risk-for-u-s-banks.html

Also going thru Moody's current euroland report & the downgrades on several eurobonds shows why Allianz & Generali will likely fall over like AIG when PIIGS CDS get triggered.

http://twitter.com/moodysratings - many report releases per tweet.

In short I don't see anyone taking voluntary haircuts in this euro debt bomb party with everyone falsifying their exposure, which is many times over what is shown on the books.

http://www.bidus.eu/ags-...anz-outlook-to-negative


$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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platinum seeker
#2176 Posted : Thursday, February 16, 2012 11:57:42 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 10/22/2010
Posts: 35
Location: Nairobi
China Reduces Holdings of U.S. Treasuries to Lowest Level Since June 2010
http://www.bloomberg.com...st-level-since-2010.html
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tonicasert
#2177 Posted : Thursday, February 16, 2012 12:19:16 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/10/2008
Posts: 301
Location: Abu Dhabi
hisah wrote:
Mainat wrote:
KK- I know what a credit event is, but the criteria for defining something as a credit event is very complex. Even if your house burnt down, please note that an insurer only pays out when they are 100% sure that it was an event that fits their criteria for paying out.
Greece will fall over because its society might balk at the required changes.


This bloomberg article says a lot and why a credit event is coming. Note how the top 5 US banks have misrepresented their euroland CDS exposure.

http://www.bloomberg.com...risk-for-u-s-banks.html

Also going thru Moody's current euroland report & the downgrades on several eurobonds shows why Allianz & Generali will likely fall over like AIG when PIIGS CDS get triggered.

http://twitter.com/moodysratings - many report releases per tweet.

In short I don't see anyone taking voluntary haircuts in this euro debt bomb party with everyone falsifying their exposure, which is many times over what is shown on the books.

http://www.bidus.eu/ags-...anz-outlook-to-negative





The bloomberg article... The big banks sit on the ISDA board!! On the other hand, we have IIF (read big banks) pushing for their case on Greek debts. Enyewe this is just a ponzi run by big corporates. None wants to take responsibility for the risks they undertook. Its all driven by shareholder and top mgt greed.
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hisah
#2178 Posted : Thursday, February 16, 2012 7:54:52 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
tonicasert wrote:
hisah wrote:
Mainat wrote:
KK- I know what a credit event is, but the criteria for defining something as a credit event is very complex. Even if your house burnt down, please note that an insurer only pays out when they are 100% sure that it was an event that fits their criteria for paying out.
Greece will fall over because its society might balk at the required changes.


This bloomberg article says a lot and why a credit event is coming. Note how the top 5 US banks have misrepresented their euroland CDS exposure.

http://www.bloomberg.com...risk-for-u-s-banks.html

Also going thru Moody's current euroland report & the downgrades on several eurobonds shows why Allianz & Generali will likely fall over like AIG when PIIGS CDS get triggered.

http://twitter.com/moodysratings - many report releases per tweet.

In short I don't see anyone taking voluntary haircuts in this euro debt bomb party with everyone falsifying their exposure, which is many times over what is shown on the books.

http://www.bidus.eu/ags-...anz-outlook-to-negative





The bloomberg article... The big banks sit on the ISDA board!! On the other hand, we have IIF (read big banks) pushing for their case on Greek debts. Enyewe this is just a ponzi run by big corporates. None wants to take responsibility for the risks they undertook. Its all driven by shareholder and top mgt greed.

The date March 23rd 2012.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#2179 Posted : Thursday, February 16, 2012 7:59:25 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Baltic Dry Index...

hisah wrote:
Something interesting about this shipping index... The nosedive since Dec 2011 is now at 64% (68% down since Oct 2011)... Euroland recession or euroland debt bomb... Hard options to pick; all bitter pills.



http://blogs.wsj.com/mar...dry-meltdown-continues/ - Blue pill

http://www.alt-market.co...renewed-market-collapse - Red pill

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#2180 Posted : Thursday, February 16, 2012 8:01:42 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
Inverted H&S on Brent oil long term chart. Target $123 once the bulls takes charge. Sad



No comment! d'oh! Divine intervention time for global economy Pray

If one was to do an elliot wave count on the current brent oil chart pattern, wave 3 is unfolding - the largest wave (rally phase) in this case when applying 1 - 5 wave count.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, February 16, 2012 8:58 PM | Reason: Not specified
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