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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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hisah wrote:Btw anyone noticed that NSE20 index closed the month of Jan 2012 less than 1% up... 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:Btw anyone noticed that NSE20 index closed the month of Jan 2012 less than 1% up... Be thankful that it is up amidst all this uncertainty Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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mwekez@ji wrote:hisah wrote:Btw anyone noticed that NSE20 index closed the month of Jan 2012 less than 1% up... ... but i was a bear so i wasnt expecting any goodies. And unless the market proves otherwise, am still a bear
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Rank: User Joined: 1/24/2012 Posts: 1,675 Location: In Da Hood
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mwekez@ji wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:hisah wrote:Btw anyone noticed that NSE20 index closed the month of Jan 2012 less than 1% up... ... but i was a bear so i wasnt expecting any goodies. And unless the market proves otherwise, am still a bear i totally agree w/ u . its safer to go with the trend until the bear trend is broken ...
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Rank: User Joined: 1/24/2012 Posts: 1,675 Location: In Da Hood
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the deal wrote:hisah wrote:We will need huge entry (buy) volume to breakdown 3400 - 3500 resistance (selling zone). As in enough buyers to clean out the sellers around that level. The other critical selling zone is 4000 - 4100. When this is cleared, the bulls will be ready to go forward without fear. Still a long way before the party starts...
Also the number of NSE firms issuing profit warnings (blue chips to boot) is not yet well reflected by the prices. The bad news is not yet baked into the market IMHO esp now that I've come across a number of 'analysts' reports saying so (i.e. the market has baked it in). The optimism is still high. These analysts' reports need to become bearish to signal a major turnaround.
Support for now is still 3000 - 3070. If that breaks, it won't be funny. I see alot of life in that chat, as long as the NSE20 does not trade below 3078 we have bottomed, a break out above 3500 will confirm the bottom...for now we are still trading in the 1 year bearish channel. those weak volumes will take the index nowhere !
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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NSE20 - Volume spread say 3000 is coming up... Get ready.  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/30/2010 Posts: 1,635
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I think good results from Agricultural counters will not let the NSE fall to 3000.
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Rank: User Joined: 1/24/2012 Posts: 1,675 Location: In Da Hood
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as long as we arent making new highs i dnt care what the index does coz its goin down !
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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FUNKY wrote:I think good results from Agricultural counters will not let the NSE fall to 3000. Other than Sasini (whose performance was a disaster), is there any other listed agricultural in the NSE-20? GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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hisah wrote:NSE20 - Volume spread say 3000 is coming up... Get ready. Cartoons.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:NSE20 - Volume spread say 3000 is coming up... Get ready. I tend to believe these graphs and trend lines are meaningless in the undeveloped market context.. Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: User Joined: 1/24/2012 Posts: 1,675 Location: In Da Hood
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Rank: User Joined: 1/24/2012 Posts: 1,675 Location: In Da Hood
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guru267 wrote:hisah wrote:NSE20 - Volume spread say 3000 is coming up... Get ready. I tend to believe these graphs and trend lines are meaningless in the undeveloped market context.. @ guru . i just hope you are jokin'
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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QW25091985 wrote:i have predicted the market too may times with graphs and it has worked ! and this time it will work soon . I thought according to your charts we were supposed to be below 2700 on the NSE 20 index.. I thought according to your charts KCB & equity is supposed to be at 12bob.. I thought according to your charts access kenya and eveready should be rallying.. If this is technical analysis I think i'll just stick to my fundamentals... Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: User Joined: 1/24/2012 Posts: 1,675 Location: In Da Hood
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guru267 wrote:QW25091985 wrote:i have predicted the market too may times with graphs and it has worked ! and this time it will work soon . I thought according to your charts we were supposed to be below 2700 on the NSE 20 index.. I thought according to your charts KCB & equity is supposed to be at 12bob.. I thought according to your charts access kenya and eveready should be rallying.. If this is technical analysis I think i'll just stick to my fundamentals... i never gave a DATE !!!!! and when i said the index should be fallin i never said access kenya and eveready will rally when i called for the correction bounce . hebu get your facts right ... i have been bearish for quite a while now .and i dnt think i will be changing that anytime soon...but if you want to be bullish its okay go ahead and buy !
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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guru267 wrote:hisah wrote:NSE20 - Volume spread say 3000 is coming up... Get ready. I tend to believe these graphs and trend lines are meaningless in the undeveloped market context.. Back in Feb & March 2011.
Then it was Feb 17, now I'm 7 days earlier. There is something interesting about February & stock markets everywhere both in bull times & bear times. Globally STI, HSI, ASX 200, NASDAQ, DJIA and S&P 500 are signalling a significant topping process... Last year it was euroland stocks. The law of one applies in globalisation - everything is interconnected.
T+38 days on countdown...
http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=156061#post156061
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/27/2012 Posts: 851 Location: Nairobi
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@QW, i would think for a "projection" to qualify as such, there HAS to be some time guidelines. Anything LESS than that is just groping in the dark in the hope of getting hold of something,which surely,you WILL. If i forecast/project about rains,with no timeline,100% i will be right,coz, i mean,the last rains couldn't have been the LAST rains EVER,could they?
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Rank: User Joined: 1/24/2012 Posts: 1,675 Location: In Da Hood
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mkeiy wrote:@QW, i would think for a "projection" to qualify as such, there HAS to be some time guidelines. Anything LESS than that is just groping in the dark in the hope of getting hold of something,which surely,you WILL. If i forecast/project about rains,with no timeline,100% i will be right,coz, i mean,the last rains couldn't have been the LAST rains EVER,could they? no pun but an sure you have no clue about technical analysis . even investment banks give a buy or sell recommendation reports do they give dates ? its impossible to pinpoint when a share price will rally to a certain price ! all technical analysis does it to give a guide to what MIGHT HAPPEN !and i have said over and over again technical analysis isNOT 100% and will sometimes fail so will fundamental analysis !
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Down with cartoons..simple.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/27/2012 Posts: 851 Location: Nairobi
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QW25091985 wrote:i have PREDICTED the market TOO may times with graphs and it has WORKED ! and this time it will work soon . just lookin at that that @hisah has posted its clear we are making lower lows ...if you want to say we will rally you might wanna have a brain check up ( no pun intended)  After using such words, why are you going back to a word like MIGHT? Investment banks DON'T give dates, but they DO give time guidelines. You do know investments are about TIMING,don't you? Technical analysis do work most of the times, but our NSE is in a different league. While you stick with your "technical" analysis about the index dipping,i made and pocketed a return of about 24% on KCB, 10% on Kenol and another 10% on Total all between early Dec 2011 and early Feb 2012. When you will be buying after the prices dip, i'll be right there,BUYING. Whose ANALYSIS is taking them somewhere? Your "technical analysis" are STOPPING you from making money. What's the point of doing technical analysis for the sake analyzing? Knowledge is POWER, but power need direction or else it wrecks havoc. I'm afraid of your power.
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