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guru267
#2111 Posted : Tuesday, January 31, 2012 8:18:53 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
guru267 wrote:
@hisah what about when the crisis in Europe is finished and the 2012 politics in kenya is over and the rains bring harvest and the inflation rate goes back below 5% and the kshs is at 86bob to the USD...

How will your current critism of the new inflation formula as one of the causes of the current fall in the currency and rise in inflation sound then??


I expect another inflation model manipulation to reverse the trend since the damage done by the KES devaluation can only be hidden by such a move.


@Guru - Remember this conversation back in Oct 11 2011. And that is precisely what IMF is recommending and is well covered by the biz daily article published yesterday. Exactly 4 months later and the script unfolds as I expected. Freakonomics or ponzinomics is becoming too easy to predict. Very boring this game masters, we need to start throwing rotten tomatoes/eggs to get them off stage Eh? Sick

http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=255188#post255188



smile
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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StatMeister
#2112 Posted : Tuesday, January 31, 2012 10:06:44 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
I must say that many people are assuming good dividend returns, especially banks.

If you were the CEO of one of the banks, would you issue more dividends or retain to cover the uncertainties ahead?
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
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hisah
#2113 Posted : Wednesday, February 01, 2012 3:39:49 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Dwindling KE gok tax revenues means tax hikes coming up as funding becomes a real burden. What does that do to price of goods and inflation? Clearly it is time for a new inflation model... So let me offer the model thugs a suggestion - cut the airtime component since telcos will hike tariffs increasing the inflation rate. Remove maize/wheat since mwananchi is living on oxygen. Remove fuel since mwananchi is now walking more & batteries are running cars. Bure kabisa!?

http://bit.ly/yk5fzX
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#2114 Posted : Wednesday, February 01, 2012 5:18:08 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Morgan Stanley to lead book-a-face IPO...

http://www.bloomberg.com...working-site-s-ipo.html


@guru - see some earnings parade here as more keep the dismal pace thru Q1 2012. And not yet factoring a disorderly portugreece debt bomb...

http://www.bloomberg.com...icter-budget-rules.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, February 01, 2012 5:19 AM | Reason: Not specified
hisah
#2115 Posted : Wednesday, February 01, 2012 4:39:42 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Something interesting about this shipping index... The nosedive since Dec 2011 is now at 64% (68% down since Oct 2011)... Euroland recession or euroland debt bomb... Hard options to pick; all bitter pills.



http://blogs.wsj.com/mar...dry-meltdown-continues/ - Blue pill

http://www.alt-market.co...renewed-market-collapse - Red pill
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, February 01, 2012 5:06 PM | Reason: Not specified
Thiong'o
#2116 Posted : Thursday, February 02, 2012 9:44:09 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 10/14/2011
Posts: 661
[quote=hisah]And more on why the sanctions by the west on Iran is just a complete waste of time. China, Japan, Russia and now India joins in to continue trading with the persians. And in the process bypassing the petrodollar hegemony. The asians are sending a strong message of discontent to the west and also reminding them they're their credit masters. Interesting times this smile

http://www.reuters.com/a...n-idUSL3E8CK3C120120120[/quote]

The economic sanctions seem to bite

Many Iranians are rushing to convert their savings into dollars and as a result Iran's currency – (the rial), has plunged to record lows in the past couple of weeks.
"The rate for foreign currency is rising by the hour."
and
In another sign of just how seriously the government is taking the situation, Iranians recently found that not only had the authorities blocked access to financial websites showing real-time exchange rates, but it was no longer possible even to use keywords like "dollar".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/new...ld-middle-east-16813248
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hisah
#2117 Posted : Thursday, February 02, 2012 3:36:59 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Thiong'o wrote:
[quote=hisah]And more on why the sanctions by the west on Iran is just a complete waste of time. China, Japan, Russia and now India joins in to continue trading with the persians. And in the process bypassing the petrodollar hegemony. The asians are sending a strong message of discontent to the west and also reminding them they're their credit masters. Interesting times this smile

http://www.reuters.com/a...n-idUSL3E8CK3C120120120[/quote]

The economic sanctions seem to bite

Many Iranians are rushing to convert their savings into dollars and as a result Iran's currency – (the rial), has plunged to record lows in the past couple of weeks.
"The rate for foreign currency is rising by the hour."
and
In another sign of just how seriously the government is taking the situation, Iranians recently found that not only had the authorities blocked access to financial websites showing real-time exchange rates, but it was no longer possible even to use keywords like "dollar".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/new...ld-middle-east-16813248

That's expected. But it will take more than that to make the persian state flip over. This is unfolding just like in 1973.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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platinum seeker
#2118 Posted : Thursday, February 02, 2012 3:58:12 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 10/22/2010
Posts: 35
Location: Nairobi
Global Strategists Abandoning Bearish Views...
http://www.bloomberg.com...after-missing-rally.html
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hisah
#2119 Posted : Thursday, February 02, 2012 4:48:27 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
[quote=platinum seeker]Global Strategists Abandoning Bearish Views...
http://www.bloomberg.com...fter-missing-rally.html[/quote]

Quote:
The MSCI All-Country World Index (MXWD) climbed 5.7 percent in January, surprising strategists at Bank of America Corp. (BAC), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Barclays Plc (BARC) who had forecast first-half losses because of Europe’s debt crisis. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Citigroup Inc. (C), which predicted the rally in stocks, say it will continue as the U.S. housing market rebounds and China eases lending restrictions to bolster economic growth.
Any declines in emerging-market equities are a buying opportunity, Geoffrey Dennis, the global emerging-market equity strategist at Citigroup, said in a phone interview on Jan. 30. The New York-based strategist, who wrote in a December report that stocks would probably gain at the start of the year, predicts that the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) will climb to 1,225 this year, about 20 percent above its current level.

This is tea being sold as coffee smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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platinum seeker
#2120 Posted : Thursday, February 02, 2012 5:46:13 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 10/22/2010
Posts: 35
Location: Nairobi
[/quote]
This is tea being sold as coffee smile[/quote]
Applause Applause
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