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Rank: New-farer Joined: 10/22/2010 Posts: 35 Location: Nairobi
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Interesting article: http://www.pambazuka.org...category/features/79417
TRANSITIONS: END OF DOLLAR HEGEMONY AND THE NEW INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL ARCHITECTURE. China/Japan currency swap: ‘This decline of the dollar might take more than a decade, but it could happen even sooner if the US did not get its financial house in order. If China and other countries were to diversify their reserve holdings away from the dollar — and they eventually will — the United States would suffer. It would take a long time for the renminbi to become a reserve currency, but it could happen. The resulting downfall of the dollar may be only a matter of time.’ 'China is beginning a move up the value chain into industries and jobs that were until recently considered the prerogative of the Western world. This is the real China challenge. It is not being produced by Beijing's currency manipulation or hidden subsidies but by strategic investment and hard work. The best and most effective response to it is not threats and tariffs but deep, structural reforms and major new investments to make the U.S. economy dynamic and its workers competitive.’
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Portuguese CDS is smoldering today. 5yr bond yield above 50%. Indeed competing with Greece on the race to the bottom. 4 months away before the boiler room turns portugreece.... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Wazuans are quite creative. Githae of the infamous wananchi can eat rats call back in 2009 doesn't fit as a treasury head. Re- rating the KE econ. http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...&m=255199#post255199$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Yes, how convenient that bwana Githae has taken up the post when the economy is in a rut... GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Some 'awesome' debt charts... http://www.ftense.com/20...c-european-debt.html?m=1$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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[quote=hisah]Wazuans are quite creative. Githae of the infamous wananchi can eat rats call back in 2009 doesn't fit as a treasury head. Re- rating the KE econ. http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=255199#post255199[/quote] Interesting that you also peep at club sk's posts albeit not posting. Wazua is kinda an addiction. “small step for man”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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http://bit.ly/wdMqPD - GE upgrade KE office to regional hub for SSA. Something cooking. Need to start following this money now... http://markmwangi.me.ke/...ine-and-dump-the-media/ - I can see someone else has got issues with lame stream media... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi
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[quote=hisah]Some 'awesome' debt charts... http://www.ftense.com/20...-european-debt.html?m=1[/quote] Indeed 'awesome'. I guess that's why our CB stopped publishing our balance sheet. Look at the local ccys debt crisis we might face over the next two year and the fact that we breached our external debt ceiling last year. Why hide our level of indebtedness unless you can't explain why you incurred it. “We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Greek football squeezed... The translation is not that good, but it passes the message. http://babelfish.yahoo.c...n&btnTrUrl=Translate$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:guru267 wrote:@hisah what about when the crisis in Europe is finished and the 2012 politics in kenya is over and the rains bring harvest and the inflation rate goes back below 5% and the kshs is at 86bob to the USD...
How will your current critism of the new inflation formula as one of the causes of the current fall in the currency and rise in inflation sound then?? I expect another inflation model manipulation to reverse the trend since the damage done by the KES devaluation can only be hidden by such a move. @Guru - Remember this conversation back in Oct 11 2011. And that is precisely what IMF is recommending and is well covered by the biz daily article published yesterday. Exactly 4 months later and the script unfolds as I expected. Freakonomics or ponzinomics is becoming too easy to predict. Very boring this game masters, we need to start throwing rotten tomatoes/eggs to get them off stage  
http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=255188#post255188
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:guru267 wrote:@hisah what about when the crisis in Europe is finished and the 2012 politics in kenya is over and the rains bring harvest and the inflation rate goes back below 5% and the kshs is at 86bob to the USD...
How will your current critism of the new inflation formula as one of the causes of the current fall in the currency and rise in inflation sound then?? I expect another inflation model manipulation to reverse the trend since the damage done by the KES devaluation can only be hidden by such a move. @Guru - Remember this conversation back in Oct 11 2011. And that is precisely what IMF is recommending and is well covered by the biz daily article published yesterday. Exactly 4 months later and the script unfolds as I expected. Freakonomics or ponzinomics is becoming too easy to predict. Very boring this game masters, we need to start throwing rotten tomatoes/eggs to get them off stage
http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=255188#post255188
 Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/23/2010 Posts: 868 Location: La Islas Galápagos
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I must say that many people are assuming good dividend returns, especially banks. If you were the CEO of one of the banks, would you issue more dividends or retain to cover the uncertainties ahead? A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Dwindling KE gok tax revenues means tax hikes coming up as funding becomes a real burden. What does that do to price of goods and inflation? Clearly it is time for a new inflation model... So let me offer the model thugs a suggestion - cut the airtime component since telcos will hike tariffs increasing the inflation rate. Remove maize/wheat since mwananchi is living on oxygen. Remove fuel since mwananchi is now walking more & batteries are running cars. Bure kabisa!? http://bit.ly/yk5fzX
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Morgan Stanley to lead book-a-face IPO... http://www.bloomberg.com...working-site-s-ipo.html
@guru - see some earnings parade here as more keep the dismal pace thru Q1 2012. And not yet factoring a disorderly portugreece debt bomb... http://www.bloomberg.com...icter-budget-rules.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Something interesting about this shipping index... The nosedive since Dec 2011 is now at 64% (68% down since Oct 2011)... Euroland recession or euroland debt bomb... Hard options to pick; all bitter pills.  http://blogs.wsj.com/mar...dry-meltdown-continues/ - Blue pill http://www.alt-market.co...renewed-market-collapse - Red pill $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/14/2011 Posts: 661
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[quote=hisah]And more on why the sanctions by the west on Iran is just a complete waste of time. China, Japan, Russia and now India joins in to continue trading with the persians. And in the process bypassing the petrodollar hegemony. The asians are sending a strong message of discontent to the west and also reminding them they're their credit masters. Interesting times this http://www.reuters.com/a...n-idUSL3E8CK3C120120120[/quote] The economic sanctions seem to bite Many Iranians are rushing to convert their savings into dollars and as a result Iran's currency – (the rial), has plunged to record lows in the past couple of weeks. "The rate for foreign currency is rising by the hour." and In another sign of just how seriously the government is taking the situation, Iranians recently found that not only had the authorities blocked access to financial websites showing real-time exchange rates, but it was no longer possible even to use keywords like "dollar". http://www.bbc.co.uk/new...ld-middle-east-16813248
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Thiong'o wrote:[quote=hisah]And more on why the sanctions by the west on Iran is just a complete waste of time. China, Japan, Russia and now India joins in to continue trading with the persians. And in the process bypassing the petrodollar hegemony. The asians are sending a strong message of discontent to the west and also reminding them they're their credit masters. Interesting times this http://www.reuters.com/a...n-idUSL3E8CK3C120120120[/quote] The economic sanctions seem to bite Many Iranians are rushing to convert their savings into dollars and as a result Iran's currency – (the rial), has plunged to record lows in the past couple of weeks. "The rate for foreign currency is rising by the hour." and In another sign of just how seriously the government is taking the situation, Iranians recently found that not only had the authorities blocked access to financial websites showing real-time exchange rates, but it was no longer possible even to use keywords like "dollar". http://www.bbc.co.uk/new...ld-middle-east-16813248
That's expected. But it will take more than that to make the persian state flip over. This is unfolding just like in 1973.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 10/22/2010 Posts: 35 Location: Nairobi
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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[quote=platinum seeker]Global Strategists Abandoning Bearish Views... http://www.bloomberg.com...fter-missing-rally.html[/quote] Quote:The MSCI All-Country World Index (MXWD) climbed 5.7 percent in January, surprising strategists at Bank of America Corp. (BAC), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Barclays Plc (BARC) who had forecast first-half losses because of Europe’s debt crisis. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Citigroup Inc. (C), which predicted the rally in stocks, say it will continue as the U.S. housing market rebounds and China eases lending restrictions to bolster economic growth.
Any declines in emerging-market equities are a buying opportunity, Geoffrey Dennis, the global emerging-market equity strategist at Citigroup, said in a phone interview on Jan. 30. The New York-based strategist, who wrote in a December report that stocks would probably gain at the start of the year, predicts that the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF) will climb to 1,225 this year, about 20 percent above its current level. This is tea being sold as coffee $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 10/22/2010 Posts: 35 Location: Nairobi
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[/quote] This is tea being sold as coffee [/quote] 
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