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Strong Shilling: Winners and Losers
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the deal
#1 Posted : Tuesday, January 24, 2012 9:40:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
The Shilling the currency for East Africa's biggest economy has gained more than 19% against the US Dollar (USD) since trading at 107 an all time low against the green back late last year. The obvious loser in the Shilling's ascend has been inflation, the price monster declined for the first time in 13 month last December to stand at 18.93% thanks to the Shilling's exploits against the USD. In the past one month and this month we have seen electricity bills, pump prices and yields on T-Bills come down giving fresh hopes that inflation will further comedown this month.

So who are the Losers and Winners in the Shilling's Ascend?

I can't post everything here read more on this link http://www.contrarianinv...ng-winners-and-loserssmile
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hisah
#2 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2012 4:29:27 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
KES has gained 19% vs. USD. The question that needs to be answered is what has strengthened the KES? Are the gains economically backed?

The inflation model got fudged in Feb 2010, a year later the cooking got exposed... I continue to treat the KES strength the same way esp looking at those piling deficits. Will gok soon admit by trimming the June budget with elections around... Will KE see a 2000 note freshly minted...

On the same deficit note, Japan has recorded the 1st trade deficit after 31 years!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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the deal
#3 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2012 2:51:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
hisah wrote:
KES has gained 19% vs. USD. The question that needs to be answered is what has strengthened the KES? Are the gains economically backed?

The inflation model got fudged in Feb 2010, a year later the cooking got exposed... I continue to treat the KES strength the same way esp looking at those piling deficits. Will gok soon admit by trimming the June budget with elections around... Will KE see a 2000 note freshly minted...

On the same deficit note, Japan has recorded the 1st trade deficit after 31 years!

I agree but on the investment side, a strong Shilling has really changed fortunes of several counters i.e Agricultural stocks, KQ, TPS etc
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FUNKY
#4 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2012 3:21:00 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
Kakuzi has traded 201,000 shares today which is very rare for this counter to trade such a huge amount. Any good news we are expecting as it is a Agriculutural counter?
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the deal
#5 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2012 3:34:36 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
FUNKY wrote:
Kakuzi has traded 201,000 shares today which is very rare for this counter to trade such a huge amount. Any good news we are expecting as it is a Agriculutural counter?

Rea Vipingo traded 620,000 Shares today...Q1 2012 tea output is expected to drop by 17% due to dry weather and the current frost...overhead on Twitter from a Bloomberg reporter.
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FUNKY
#6 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2012 4:04:34 PM
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Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
I just noticed WTK also traded 100,300 shares today.
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hisah
#7 Posted : Wednesday, January 25, 2012 4:24:46 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Hmmm... methinks from the look of volume spread on WTK, Vipingo and Sasini, a rally is likely in coming weeks...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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The optimist
#8 Posted : Thursday, May 23, 2013 11:39:32 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/14/2010
Posts: 521
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
The Shilling the currency for East Africa's biggest economy has gained more than 19% against the US Dollar (USD) since trading at 107 an all time low against the green back late last year. The obvious loser in the Shilling's ascend has been inflation, the price monster declined for the first time in 13 month last December to stand at 18.93% thanks to the Shilling's exploits against the USD. In the past one month and this month we have seen electricity bills, pump prices and yields on T-Bills come down giving fresh hopes that inflation will further comedown this month.

So who are the Losers and Winners in the Shilling's Ascend?

I can't post everything here read more on this link http://www.contrarianinv...ng-winners-and-loserssmile


@The deal, what do you have to say about the current shilling strength.What stocks should we be looking at
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BestCloserKenya
#9 Posted : Thursday, May 23, 2013 11:19:16 PM
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Joined: 5/23/2013
Posts: 5
The volumes have been attributed to positive tea prices in the global market. However,i forsee a drop especially in Q1 due to bad weather and low crop productivity.
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