Mark your cards. If we go for March/June 2013, the bear will last as long if not longer. We won't see 3,700 until then

Investor fatigue might trigger a bull run. ;-)

Having looked at the market over the last 2/3 months, I think the NSE is unlikely to rise above 4,050 until 2013.
My reasons:
1. The political noise levels have frightened our banks from lending to the common mwananchi which means the economy won’t grow by more than 4.5%-5% and the banks themselves won’t make the kind of profits they did last year. The current noises are like having a neighbor who beats his wife every evening. He keeps you awake and you fear he may whip one evening. Banks are now chasing government securities and will continue to do so supported by
2. Higher interest rates: GoK overspend will continue between now and the new govt in 2013. This will entail higher borrowing (UK has already alluded to this in his budget statement last month).
3. Inflation is going one way: oil prices will probably standing heading downwards, but I expect inflation to stay because of
4. Patchy rains: our climate has changed and I expect rains to be followed by longer dry periods. We can change this (plant more trees), but in the meantime, we’ll see a higher population chasing less food. Patchy rains is also a problem given dependency on hydropower.

the bear market isnot tied to just elections but to also the economic conditions . am praying we see 27xx levels ..or atleast close ...