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Best Stock bet for 2012
GenghisCapitalLtd
#1 Posted : Tuesday, January 03, 2012 4:45:09 PM

Rank: Bona-fide


Joined: 11/2/2011
Posts: 191
Location: Nairobi
The year that was 2011 is over and now 2012 has began in challenging environs but money can still be made in this excruciating but opportunistic environment. My stocks for this year are HFCK, TCL and CfC Stanbic. Why? HFCK's core business is still growing with a potential to be HUGE. Interests are high, this is just a transitory phase that will pass. TCL will gain momentum this year with a well diversified portfolio in industries that are essential yet not fully optimised. CfC Stanbic will have a rights issue so will KQ but I think the CFC one will be better accepted by the public...waited too long for KQ. Watch out also for Agriculture stocks as well. What you guys think?
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“Be a yardstick of quality. Some people aren’t used to an environment where excellence is expected.” Steve Jobs,iGenius
guru267
#2 Posted : Tuesday, January 03, 2012 7:30:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
GenghisCapitalLtd wrote:
Watch out also for Agriculture stocks as well. What you guys think?


Im watching some of these agriculturals real closely!! The valuations and dividend yields are pretty attractive and their balance sheets are the most healthy in the whole market... lets not forget that they are an indirect hedge against kenya shilling weakness and global food inflation..

I expect a FY EPS of 125 for williamson and 67 for kapchorua..
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
erifloss
#3 Posted : Tuesday, January 03, 2012 8:12:16 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
One analyst said it best 2012 is a diversity year and this does not mean in one market.
1. HFCK - Not well diversified regionally.
- Dependent on raising lending capital and under the
current economic environment this is too expensive they
are even contemplating of going to the international
markets and with the current Euro zone debacle everyone
knows what that will do to any trial of this.
- Inflation has reduced people's disposable income
tremendously and with house rents going up, people are
going for cheaper houses making new investments in real
estate a rather unattractive investment as of now.
2. TCL: - With its white elephant project and heavy reliance on EA
Cables, i don't see it making money for investors.
- International commodity prices are on the rise
especially minerals and metal as some are regarded as
the best and safer investment options after the death of
bonds and with it RF Rates. This is bad for TCL's bottom
line because of the industry they are in.
- Tranny is the word. Questions..Why list during an
economic downturn nearing an election through
introduction? Why create so many subsidiaries while
almost nearing the IPO period? Why do the IPO at a PE of
over 35 when the average market PE as at the time is
around 10-15?
3. CFC Stanbic: - Its Cost to Income ratio speaks volumes. Growth
of its top line and its performance in comparison
to its peers is terrible. When a company takes in
so much talent and performs below par for a time
period over a year with no clear strategic path
then don't expect better than good performance
from them.

- They are also all over the place with their
product offerings and are yet to clearly define
their real target market. Remember BBK when
Equity stepped in! History repeating itself!

As said above, for any investment you'll go for this year look at:
1. Regional and product diversity.
2. The lack of or the political patronage a company is linked to.
3. Performance Consistency.
4. Div Yield.
5. Well laid and achievable Strategic path.
6. A competent and consistent performing management.

Investments: KK, Jubilee, NMG, Williamson, EABL, BAT, 2 year Bond & or T Bills.
Strategy:Capital preservation + income while at it.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
Cde Monomotapa
#4 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 3:40:57 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
KCB Group, Uchumi & Kenol Kobil.
Impunity
#5 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 7:04:04 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 26,330
Location: Masada
Miaow.
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

QW25081985
#6 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 7:39:23 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/29/2011
Posts: 1,045
Location: Mtaani
a.k , Olympia,
Sober
#7 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 9:13:50 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
NIC to the end..
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
GenghisCapitalLtd
#8 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 1:28:45 PM

Rank: Bona-fide


Joined: 11/2/2011
Posts: 191
Location: Nairobi
How about MSC? It will launch its 3 projects this year in ethanol distillery, co-generation of electricity and water bottling. It has diversified and cushioned its earnings and once the projects are up and running I think it will be a good investment despite the sugar cane supply declining by almost half.
Follow us on Twitter @genghiscapital
“Be a yardstick of quality. Some people aren’t used to an environment where excellence is expected.” Steve Jobs,iGenius
guru me
#9 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 2:25:39 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 6/27/2011
Posts: 63
KK sounds very interesting to me. Regional diversification. Good market position. Great history of dividend payouts.
2012
#10 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 2:41:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
As much as I hate the way KPLC is managed, and as much as I loved the mwangaza mpya for the numerous candle lit family dinners and house camping over the Christmas - New Year season I cannot see any company with more potential.

I hold quite a few shares here but I think competition is the only thing that would make them improve. I wish Buffet could see huge gaping opportunity in East Africa.

On another note at QW, why is AK northing?

BBI will solve it
:)
mlennyma
#11 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 2:50:01 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,192
Location: nairobi
Buyer in the horizon.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
GenghisCapitalLtd
#12 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 3:02:43 PM

Rank: Bona-fide


Joined: 11/2/2011
Posts: 191
Location: Nairobi
KPLC would be a great counter. How about the banking sector? do you think they will continue their great run in 2012, as in over 11 months in 2011 they hit 80Bn in profitability higher than the figure of 72Bn in the whole of 2010. I think they will still be a force to reckon with. Another sector that will deliver is the construction with ARM and Bamburi - regional presence, well defined strategic plan, continued expenditure on infrastructure in the region,competent and consistent management in both companies.
Follow us on Twitter @genghiscapital
“Be a yardstick of quality. Some people aren’t used to an environment where excellence is expected.” Steve Jobs,iGenius
2012
#13 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 3:08:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
Buyer in the horizon.


For real? scom, airtel, mtn, who?

BBI will solve it
:)
mwekez@ji
#14 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 3:27:23 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
guru me wrote:
KK sounds very interesting to me. Regional diversification. Good market position. Great history of dividend payouts.


Now that Segman has already informed us what to expect from this co., including the YE results, and the share seems to have absorbed most of this info, will it really rally anytime soon.
Just thinking aloud
youcan'tstopusnow
#15 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 3:30:27 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
guru me wrote:
KK* sounds very interesting to me. Regional diversification. Good market position. Great history of dividend payouts.

*Cue Cde to insert KCB in place of KKsmile

But yenyewe KK is an impressive biz.

Banks will continue to grow their profits, not at warp speed though. But as I said before, I fear for the much smaller banks. Will be interesting to see how they perform in Q4 relative to the earlier quarters
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
2012
#16 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 3:32:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
But as I said before, I fear for the much smaller banks.


I fear most for HFCK.

BBI will solve it
:)
youcan'tstopusnow
#17 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 3:42:45 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
2012 wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
But as I said before, I fear for the much smaller banks.


I fear most for HFCK.

What are the mortgage rates saa hii? Is anyone mad enough to take one right now?Sad
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
youcan'tstopusnow
#18 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 3:51:23 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
mwekez@ji wrote:
will it really rally anytime soon.
Just thinking aloud

No one knows really. BUT, I think it really boils down to if you think KK has 'value' at current prices. If you think so, you keep buying. If not you sell. 2 things though:

1. "In the short term, the stock market behaves like a voting machine, but in the long term it acts like a weighing machine"

2. "It isn't as important to buy as cheap as possible as it is to buy at the right time"

Which school of thought do you belong to? 1 or 2? I belong to 1.5smile

GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
youcan'tstopusnow
#19 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 3:59:29 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Here by the way is what the C.E.O of Rich Management, Aly Khan Satchu had to say on the NSE in 2012:

"The equity markets have a lot of bad news baked into them, and little of the good. So I expect a rally of about 30-35 per cent from here before the end of 2012."
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
2012
#20 Posted : Wednesday, January 04, 2012 4:10:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
2012 wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
But as I said before, I fear for the much smaller banks.


I fear most for HFCK.

What are the mortgage rates saa hii? Is anyone mad enough to take one right now?Sad


23%

If you're expected to pay kindo 100k per month for 20yrs for a house worth 5m and fetching rent of 20k (expected to go lower soon), how will you survive?

BBI will solve it
:)
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