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Financial year 2010 results estimates for banks
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:Even if the financial sector reports super results, this has already been priced in by the rejection of the NSE index at 4700pt level. Resistance in the short term is now between 4600 - 4700 zone, which happens to project a double top. The fudged inflation index is above 5% which is the CBK's upper limit, yet MPC lowered the CBR to 5.75% - quite senseless!? Global food inflation is picking up, oil inflation due to middle east civil unrest, possibility of a drought and political risks as we approach 2012 are presenting bullish barriers. This yearly chart portrays a head and shoulders pattern which likely suggests that in coming weeks NSE will reach 4000 points if 4200 support does not hold. If 4000 support does not hold, it will be time to turn defensive and look for cheap attractive blue chip counters. Personally I started getting uncomfortable by the lack of volume in the last quarter of 2010 as the market rallied to 4700. When I posted this chart, NSE was just above 4400. The Head and Shoulder objective has been met (I wish short selling was permitted). Now the index should consolidate losses for a few days/weeks before a relief rally, but the structure is now bearish from neutral after 4000 support gave way. Relief rally should target 4300 before the next leg down to 3600. Defensive trading mode on i.e. bargain hunting mode on... And the rout of the Ksh against the euro, pound and dollar is a bit worrying. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/11/2010 Posts: 1,011 Location: nairobi
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@Hisah spot on. Keep it up dude.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Equity books close 18th March GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Fyatu wrote:hisah wrote:Even if the financial sector reports super results, this has already been priced in by the rejection of the NSE index at 4700pt level. Resistance in the short term is now between 4600 - 4700 zone, which happens to project a double top. The fudged inflation index is above 5% which is the CBK's upper limit, yet MPC lowered the CBR to 5.75% - quite senseless!? Global food inflation is picking up, oil inflation due to middle east civil unrest, possibility of a drought and political risks as we approach 2012 are presenting bullish barriers. This yearly chart portrays a head and shoulders pattern which likely suggests that in coming weeks NSE will reach 4000 points if 4200 support does not hold. If 4000 support does not hold, it will be time to turn defensive and look for cheap attractive blue chip counters. Personally I started getting uncomfortable by the lack of volume in the last quarter of 2010 as the market rallied to 4700. Is this a prophecy of doom?? should we get worried?? Stated back in Feb 2011. Oh my... Seems it was $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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VituVingiSana wrote:KCB has a nasty habit of negative surprises every 2 years!
Let's hope they have made huge recoveries in Uchumi & Triton... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Aguytrying wrote:Yesternight i had a dream.....kcb increased by 3.20 bob to land at 26 point something, couldn't see clearly dreams are hazy. Co-op went by 4bob to become 24. It was so real, i didn't realise it was a dream until i woke. My first dream on shares ever. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:Fyatu wrote: Is this a prophecy of doom?? should we get worried??
No. It is an opportunity to own quality stocks at cheaper prices. Some quality stocks have P/E ratios which are way too high. If nse breaks below 4000 that's the time to bargain hunt. Maybe VVS will get safcom @3.50 then. But I want it lower @3. Money is made as the quality bargains keep getting cheaper. A fat-tail situation where the market under prices the stocks despite rosy fundamentals. Blue chips benefit the most when the market re-prices the undervaluation in the next bullish turn. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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erifloss wrote:dave.kim wrote:ProverB wrote:[quote=erifloss]With pay outs that Cargen, EABL, BOC & now BBK have given, i have a feeling that some boards are now rethinking on their selling points. I'm loving it. ..mhmmmm... suddenly smelling the hand of NSE honchos... is it possibly trying excite the market..by requesting boards to dilute shares with splits/bonuses? maybe..after all..i remember one Jimnah at some time past requesting illiquid expensive counters to split to encourage investing.. maybe something similar is afoot.. maybe. nse was up jana..after a long while.. Could be since the nse was rated as the seventh most expensive bourse in frontier markets ,leading foreign investors to choose other markets. http://www.businessdaily...50/1112294/-/157a31i/-/[/quote] My thoughts exactly! I think the 'big cats' are trying to shade a picture of a market that though rated as expensive in terms of p/e gives good returns in terms of div. yields and bonus issues. The end result capital retention with good returns though the fluctuation of our currency is causing a major setback on this front. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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ProverB wrote:....and unfortunately not aboard KQ. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/14/2011 Posts: 661
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/21/2010 Posts: 514 Location: Nairobi
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erifloss wrote:guru267 wrote:erifloss wrote:If CBK continues to tighten up and cash strap these banks as they are doing right now & continue increasing interest rates, then i don't see the same growth or near the same growth in the banking sector this year as it was last year. Some of these banks made exponential growth from one-off items especially bond trading a good example being DTB. www.businessdailyafrica....8/-/t3mayvz/-/index.html Banks will just pass the rise to the consumer and at the moment demand for loanz is inelastic.. True, though you should remember that we are moving towards less cash chasing more goods and services. People save and invest the excesses thus banks that highly rely on common mwananchi are going to have it rough as compared to the ones that mostly deal with body corporates and high net worth individuals and this is when banks like stanchart make a kill and banks like equity find themselves in the slow growth zone. @madmanlabs, you only go for a mortgage when you are sure you can and will be able to repay and you can only do this with your surplus income thus during this inflationary period, uprising in the middle east, the US debt at an all time high, consumer spending down and commodity prices rising by the day i don't see some of the growth areas flourishing. 'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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''The same would also apply to any attempt to impose controls on loan rates, in the erroneous belief that this might encourage more lending. A vast body of economic literature suggests that when banks cannot price adequately for risk relative to their cost of funds, the impact is likely to be credit rationing rather than further credit extension. Kenya is unlikely to prove the exception to this well-established economic rule. The decision by the Bankers Association to extend the tenure of existing loans, rather than pass on the full impact of higher interest rates is a sound response to the reality of higher interest rates, which should blunt its overall impact on real economic activity. But any attempt to put in place curbs on interest rate spreads would risk undoing a lot of Kenya’s recent success with financial inclusion, perhaps permanently.'' - Razia Khan GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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It is also wise to acknowledge that when worse comes to worst, GoK can always tap into the Consolidated Fund.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:It is also wise to acknowledge that when worse comes to worst, GoK can always tap into the Consolidated Fund. Thus, as personal finance management tool, we should all have a contigency cash pool to see us through a inflationary patch like FY2011 was ;-)
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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"For a very long time it has been cited as a huge dis-advantage the limited participation & intergration of sub-Saharan Africa in global finance, economics & trade. But as it is now and into the foreseeable future, that happens to be our greatest strength and attractiveness to both local & foreign investments especially against the back-drop of the economic turmoil in the advanced economies. Let the good times roll Afrika Oyee!! Thank you." - Uncle James.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:"For a very long time it has been cited as a huge dis-advantage the limited participation & intergration of sub-Saharan Africa in global finance, economics & trade. But as it is now and into the foreseeable future, that happens to be our greatest strength and attractiveness to both local & foreign investments especially against the back-drop of the economic turmoil in the advanced economies. Let the good times roll Afrika Oyee!! Thank you." - Uncle James. Nice. Wakae na shida zao. tukae na zetu. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:Aguytrying wrote:Yesternight i had a dream.....kcb increased by 3.20 bob to land at 26 point something, couldn't see clearly dreams are hazy. Co-op went by 4bob to become 24. It was so real, i didn't realise it was a dream until i woke. My first dream on shares ever. Nice recap of the year. In my defense, KCB eventually rose to 26.00, from 22.00-23.00. This recap shows, that what seems true even in consensus most of the time, IS NOT! The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 11/14/2011 Posts: 50
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by the way kcb is rallying...maybe to about 19 or 20...from 14.70....dont miss this.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Aguytrying wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:"For a very long time it has been cited as a huge dis-advantage the limited participation & intergration of sub-Saharan Africa in global finance, economics & trade. But as it is now and into the foreseeable future, that happens to be our greatest strength and attractiveness to both local & foreign investments especially against the back-drop of the economic turmoil in the advanced economies. Let the good times roll Afrika Oyee!! Thank you." - Uncle James. Nice. Wakae na shida zao. tukae na zetu. Hakuna waAfrika G7 ama G20. Wacha tumpambane na inflation Kazi Ikiendelea!!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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simonmaina71@gmail.com wrote:by the way kcb is rallying...maybe to about 19 or 20...from 14.70....dont miss this. You were on point GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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