hisah wrote:Just seen the tbill 91 day auction results. 100+ bps jump from 17s% to 18s% and a 300+% oversubscription. This means 20% is now a reality on the shortest date paper! So if indeed KE is getting USD loans from intl banks why is siringi becoming expensive for treasury? Smoking mirrors this... USDKES rate is becoming irrelevant as per the money market moves. A major disconnect. Who's cheating who in this USD avalanche environment... What happens when cbk cannot quickly slash the cbr due to funding issues?
dude, please note the CBK has contracted money supply since october, unless new money is created rates will continue edging up! borrowin USDs is a silly move, remember GoKs budget is in KES's and supply of KES's has shrunk(per KNBS stats for oct-M2 stats that is) so if GoK borrows USDs its left with 3 options
1.sell usd's buy kes's= draining kes liquidity jerking rates up higher
2. swap usd's for kes's= same effect as 2
3. keep usd's in fcy reserves= not buyin reserves from mkt= reduced supply of kes's from lack of cbk fcy participation
either way we see higher rates unless offcourse CBK monetize, but with 18pct inflation wud they be that daft, 2012 will be a terrible year for the economy, stay in cash ladies and gents!!