wazua Sun, Sep 21, 2025
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In

43 Pages«<2425262728>»
Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
hisah
#501 Posted : Wednesday, November 23, 2011 9:30:09 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@youcant - siringi got to break below 90 yesterday as per expectations, but NSE is still limping...

A long thread about siringi's heroics ran all day yesterday, but still nothing is fixed! @vvs/kizee/scubidu/mainat will like what Linus thinks - http://www.nation.co.ke/...ndex.html#commentsAnchor
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
kizee1
#502 Posted : Wednesday, November 23, 2011 10:06:52 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
At an overnight yield of 33pct the KES can do whatever it wants
hisah
#503 Posted : Thursday, December 01, 2011 11:40:20 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977


@kizee - siringi almost meeting H&S objective of 88 then 85. But at some point the econ will dearly pay for this market intervention aka manipulation.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
kizee1
#504 Posted : Thursday, December 01, 2011 11:46:52 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:


@kizee - siringi almost meeting H&S objective of 88 then 85. But at some point the econ will dearly pay for this market intervention aka manipulation.


a crush already looking inevitable, next year will be rough, gues thats why Uk is doin a eurobond, if they monetize next year to revamp things then they will face stagflationary issues rite? why cant GoK just balance the books? how hard is it to do this?
hisah
#505 Posted : Thursday, December 01, 2011 12:30:43 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@kizee - the real question is why aren't they balancing the books... Now that euroland is smoking so badly that the Fed bank cut USD swap rates yesterday (veiled QE) in cohorts with other 5 major CBs, why would anyone want to float a eurobond with the underlying financial distress. A Eurobond will end up costing the gok sizable interest rate payments. Not a smart move by any means. The sad part is the tape points to KE econ biting a mini recession or worse stagflation.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
RVP
#506 Posted : Friday, December 16, 2011 1:52:58 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 5/3/2010
Posts: 69
Now at 83.35. This is now overkill. Laughing out loudly
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#507 Posted : Friday, December 16, 2011 2:18:16 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Great!But expecting our manufaturers i.e Mumias et al to reduce prices and thus bring down inflation is another story altogether.
Not when we have cartels!
@SufficientlyP
FUNKY
#508 Posted : Friday, December 16, 2011 2:35:29 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
Prices will come down in a couple of months. It's obvious the prices of goods will not come down the same day as the dollar drops.
Cde Monomotapa
#509 Posted : Friday, December 16, 2011 4:17:22 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
hisah wrote:
@kizee - the real question is why aren't they balancing the books... Now that euroland is smoking so badly that the Fed bank cut USD swap rates yesterday (veiled QE) in cohorts with other 5 major CBs, why would anyone want to float a eurobond with the underlying financial distress. A Eurobond will end up costing the gok sizable interest rate payments. Not a smart move by any means. The sad part is the tape points to KE econ biting a mini recession or worse stagflation.

Uko nyuma men...GoK is getting $600M from foreign private banks in place of Euro bond @Libor "plus a few points" - PS Kinyua.
Cde Monomotapa
#510 Posted : Friday, December 16, 2011 4:19:14 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
hisah wrote:
@kizee - the real question is why aren't they balancing the books... Now that euroland is smoking so badly that the Fed bank cut USD swap rates yesterday (veiled QE) in cohorts with other 5 major CBs, why would anyone want to float a eurobond with the underlying financial distress. A Eurobond will end up costing the gok sizable interest rate payments. Not a smart move by any means. The sad part is the tape points to KE econ biting a mini recession or worse stagflation.

Uko nyuma men...GoK is getting $600M from foreign private banks in place of Euro bond @Libor "plus a few points" - PS Kinyua.

And this is also part of what's contributing to KES gaining like a stock.
hisah
#511 Posted : Saturday, December 17, 2011 8:06:25 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
hisah wrote:
@kizee - the real question is why aren't they balancing the books... Now that euroland is smoking so badly that the Fed bank cut USD swap rates yesterday (veiled QE) in cohorts with other 5 major CBs, why would anyone want to float a eurobond with the underlying financial distress. A Eurobond will end up costing the gok sizable interest rate payments. Not a smart move by any means. The sad part is the tape points to KE econ biting a mini recession or worse stagflation.

Uko nyuma men...GoK is getting $600M from foreign private banks in place of Euro bond @Libor "plus a few points" - PS Kinyua.

When I posted this the private bank loans were in the pipeline. I saw something in the fx news wires that JP Morgue, Goldman Sucks et al banksters will lend to gok slightly above LIBOR rate - not sure if it is the lesser evil than eurobond. I guess finally that PD (market making for cbk via these intl banks) thing will come online in 2012...

It's becoming hazy trying to read the KE econ tape. Too many cooks in the kitchen...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Cde Monomotapa
#512 Posted : Saturday, December 17, 2011 12:21:23 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
hisah wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
hisah wrote:
@kizee - the real question is why aren't they balancing the books... Now that euroland is smoking so badly that the Fed bank cut USD swap rates yesterday (veiled QE) in cohorts with other 5 major CBs, why would anyone want to float a eurobond with the underlying financial distress. A Eurobond will end up costing the gok sizable interest rate payments. Not a smart move by any means. The sad part is the tape points to KE econ biting a mini recession or worse stagflation.

Uko nyuma men...GoK is getting $600M from foreign private banks in place of Euro bond @Libor "plus a few points" - PS Kinyua.

When I posted this the private bank loans were in the pipeline. I saw something in the fx news wires that JP Morgue, Goldman Sucks et al banksters will lend to gok slightly above LIBOR rate - not sure if it is the lesser evil than eurobond. I guess finally that PD (market making for cbk via these intl banks) thing will come online in 2012...

It's becoming hazy trying to read the KE econ tape. Too many cooks in the kitchen...

Welcome the avalanche...
hisah
#513 Posted : Monday, December 19, 2011 9:21:52 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Just seen the tbill 91 day auction results. 100+ bps jump from 17s% to 18s% and a 300+% oversubscription. This means 20% is now a reality on the shortest date paper! So if indeed KE is getting USD loans from intl banks why is siringi becoming expensive for treasury? Smoking mirrors this... USDKES rate is becoming irrelevant as per the money market moves. A major disconnect. Who's cheating who in this USD avalanche environment... What happens when cbk cannot quickly slash the cbr due to funding issues?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
kizee1
#514 Posted : Monday, December 19, 2011 11:41:22 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
Just seen the tbill 91 day auction results. 100+ bps jump from 17s% to 18s% and a 300+% oversubscription. This means 20% is now a reality on the shortest date paper! So if indeed KE is getting USD loans from intl banks why is siringi becoming expensive for treasury? Smoking mirrors this... USDKES rate is becoming irrelevant as per the money market moves. A major disconnect. Who's cheating who in this USD avalanche environment... What happens when cbk cannot quickly slash the cbr due to funding issues?



dude, please note the CBK has contracted money supply since october, unless new money is created rates will continue edging up! borrowin USDs is a silly move, remember GoKs budget is in KES's and supply of KES's has shrunk(per KNBS stats for oct-M2 stats that is) so if GoK borrows USDs its left with 3 options
1.sell usd's buy kes's= draining kes liquidity jerking rates up higher
2. swap usd's for kes's= same effect as 2
3. keep usd's in fcy reserves= not buyin reserves from mkt= reduced supply of kes's from lack of cbk fcy participation

either way we see higher rates unless offcourse CBK monetize, but with 18pct inflation wud they be that daft, 2012 will be a terrible year for the economy, stay in cash ladies and gents!!
hisah
#515 Posted : Monday, December 19, 2011 12:18:43 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
kizee1 wrote:
hisah wrote:
Just seen the tbill 91 day auction results. 100+ bps jump from 17s% to 18s% and a 300+% oversubscription. This means 20% is now a reality on the shortest date paper! So if indeed KE is getting USD loans from intl banks why is siringi becoming expensive for treasury? Smoking mirrors this... USDKES rate is becoming irrelevant as per the money market moves. A major disconnect. Who's cheating who in this USD avalanche environment... What happens when cbk cannot quickly slash the cbr due to funding issues?



dude, please note the CBK has contracted money supply since october, unless new money is created rates will continue edging up! borrowin USDs is a silly move, remember GoKs budget is in KES's and supply of KES's has shrunk(per KNBS stats for oct-M2 stats that is) so if GoK borrows USDs its left with 3 options
1.sell usd's buy kes's= draining kes liquidity jerking rates up higher
2. swap usd's for kes's= same effect as 2
3. keep usd's in fcy reserves= not buyin reserves from mkt= reduced supply of kes's from lack of cbk fcy participation

either way we see higher rates unless offcourse CBK monetize, but with 18pct inflation wud they be that daft, 2012 will be a terrible year for the economy, stay in cash ladies and gents!!

Wow! This is a deer caught in headlamps moment for treasury! That squeeze is going to hurt as the belt tightens to uncomfy levels with a limping econ... Definitely labour strikes will be a common feature next year.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
kizee1
#516 Posted : Monday, December 19, 2011 9:48:07 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
hisah wrote:
Just seen the tbill 91 day auction results. 100+ bps jump from 17s% to 18s% and a 300+% oversubscription. This means 20% is now a reality on the shortest date paper! So if indeed KE is getting USD loans from intl banks why is siringi becoming expensive for treasury? Smoking mirrors this... USDKES rate is becoming irrelevant as per the money market moves. A major disconnect. Who's cheating who in this USD avalanche environment... What happens when cbk cannot quickly slash the cbr due to funding issues?



dude, please note the CBK has contracted money supply since october, unless new money is created rates will continue edging up! borrowin USDs is a silly move, remember GoKs budget is in KES's and supply of KES's has shrunk(per KNBS stats for oct-M2 stats that is) so if GoK borrows USDs its left with 3 options
1.sell usd's buy kes's= draining kes liquidity jerking rates up higher
2. swap usd's for kes's= same effect as 2
3. keep usd's in fcy reserves= not buyin reserves from mkt= reduced supply of kes's from lack of cbk fcy participation

either way we see higher rates unless offcourse CBK monetize, but with 18pct inflation wud they be that daft, 2012 will be a terrible year for the economy, stay in cash ladies and gents!!

Wow! This is a deer caught in headlamps moment for treasury! That squeeze is going to hurt as the belt tightens to uncomfy levels with a limping econ... Definitely labour strikes will be a common feature next year.


when all else fails they can monetizesmile
Cde Monomotapa
#517 Posted : Tuesday, December 20, 2011 9:24:11 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
How about inflation going forward? Especially fuel & energy? The outlook is major decrease and that has everything to do with a stronger KES. That's what matters now. GoK will pay you back even @30% they own the printer anyway :)
Cde Monomotapa
#518 Posted : Tuesday, December 20, 2011 9:28:30 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
And as inflation ease so will GoK debt auction rates. I think T-Bill rates have topped. By H2 2012 things will be very different inflation wise.
hisah
#519 Posted : Tuesday, December 20, 2011 9:33:40 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
How about inflation going forward? Especially fuel & energy? The outlook is major decrease and that has everything to do with a stronger KES. That's what matters now. GoK will pay you back even @30% they own the printer anyway :)

Freakonomics... KES is strong due to a USD avalanche while the econ spits its guts... They can cheat now just as they did with the fudging of the inflation model. It'll once again blow up. Watch as inflation falls but your purchasing power still trims back! This is why I see labour unrest in 2012 - an election yr to boot Sad
Biz unusual coming next to you...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Cde Monomotapa
#520 Posted : Tuesday, December 20, 2011 9:43:37 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
hisah wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
How about inflation going forward? Especially fuel & energy? The outlook is major decrease and that has everything to do with a stronger KES. That's what matters now. GoK will pay you back even @30% they own the printer anyway :)

Freakonomics... KES is strong due to a USD avalanche while the econ spits its guts... They can cheat now just as they did with the fudging of the inflation model. It'll once again blow up. Watch as inflation falls but your purchasing power still trims back! This is why I see labour unrest in 2012 - an election yr to boot Sad
Biz unusual coming next to you...

Well, I wish U accepted that the attack on inflation is both technical & fundamental. I know the latter bores U to death :) but i'll have U know that 7-forks is @ overflow level and we have enough LOCAL food stock to see is us well into next year.
Users browsing this topic
Guest (3)
43 Pages«<2425262728>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Copyright © 2025 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.