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TRACKING RISK
emlyn ngwiri
#1 Posted : Wednesday, December 07, 2011 7:55:12 AM
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Joined: 8/12/2010
Posts: 129
Location: nairobi
Morning guys,

Wanted to find out if tracking risk/error impacts the performance of the NASI passive investor (stocks or bonds) and if so, how should an investor /portfolio manager structure the portfolio to overcome heruistic driven biases and "churning" to ensure that the investor goals are achieved?

thanks

emlyn
jimmy1
#2 Posted : Wednesday, December 07, 2011 9:44:38 AM
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Joined: 2/11/2011
Posts: 240
Location: jamuhuri ya kenya
your question isn't clear
emlyn ngwiri
#3 Posted : Wednesday, December 07, 2011 5:40:59 PM
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Joined: 8/12/2010
Posts: 129
Location: nairobi
How does tracking risk impact a passive investors and portfolio managers (stocks/ bonds) selection, pegged on the NASI bearing in mind the heuristic judgements they make in achieving their objectives?
Scooby
#4 Posted : Wednesday, December 07, 2011 7:33:42 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
emlyn ngwiri wrote:
How does tracking risk impact a passive investors and portfolio managers (stocks/ bonds) selection, pegged on the NASI bearing in mind the heuristic judgements they make in achieving their objectives?


Emlyn,

Your query is kinda hazy but let me see if I can be of help...

When an investor builds up their portfolio based on a certain benchmark (such as NASI), there will be minimal tracking risk - as the performance of the portfolio is expected to track the performance of the benchmark.

When an investor has certain expectations or needs based on their experiences (what you are referring to as heuristic judgements), they could design their portfolio based on what their knowledge/experience.

That could increase the tracking risk if there are significant deviations between what the portfolio holds and the benchmark contains.

So, its really about handling the investor's heuristic judgments so as to minimise tracking risk.

Hope this helps.

Regards

emlyn ngwiri
#5 Posted : Thursday, December 08, 2011 5:39:03 PM
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Joined: 8/12/2010
Posts: 129
Location: nairobi
@SCOOBY, thanks man
simonkabz
#6 Posted : Thursday, December 08, 2011 6:57:42 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/2/2007
Posts: 8,776
Location: Cameroon
emlyn ngwiri wrote:
Morning guys,

Wanted to find out if tracking risk/error impacts the performance of the NASI passive investor (stocks or bonds) and if so, how should an investor /portfolio manager structure the portfolio to overcome heruistic driven biases and "churning" to ensure that the investor goals are achieved?

thanks

emlyn


Kamae Gai wa matuiní....come srowry.
TULIA.........UFUNZWE!
emlyn ngwiri
#7 Posted : Friday, December 09, 2011 7:58:14 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/12/2010
Posts: 129
Location: nairobi
one more clarification scooby,

doesn't the sucess of a passive investor lie on how successful the returns match that of the NASI and not the absolute returns generated? this necessitates constant reballancing Right? rebalancing means costs(churning)

how would one ensure effective rebalancing at minimal costs?
Scooby
#8 Posted : Friday, December 09, 2011 7:12:10 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
emlyn ngwiri wrote:
one more clarification scooby,

doesn't the sucess of a passive investor lie on how successful the returns match that of the NASI and not the absolute returns generated? this necessitates constant reballancing Right? rebalancing means costs(churning)

how would one ensure effective rebalancing at minimal costs?


Hi Emlyn,

When an investor decides to invest in either an index fund (or buy the shares in the index), they do so in the belief that the market is already effecient. Hence, there will be no need for one to deviate from the index weightings to gain additional return (alpha).

The success of such an investor would therefore be how closely related their return is related to the index return. Another success factor is their tracking risk - and if you combine the two is the active ratio.

As regards balancing, you would rarely expect the investor to rebalance their portfolio. One reason is that there are few instances where when a share is being added,replaced or deleted from the index.

Assuming that you have the NSE 20 as your benchamrk index, you would have decided to replace CMC Holdings by Uchumi Supermarkets today. NSE decided to make that change yesterday - on 8 December 2011 (See the media centre section on the NSE website).

The other instance would be incase of a corporate action such as exercing a rights issue - only if the action would not materially affect the weighting of that share in the index.

FYI, the index would automatically adjust for other corporate actions like a bonus share issue or stock split.

Hope this helps.

Regards
emlyn ngwiri
#9 Posted : Wednesday, December 14, 2011 7:58:10 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/12/2010
Posts: 129
Location: nairobi
yes scooby i understand you very well.

but as regards your ststement

"FYI, the index would automatically adjust for other corporate actions like a bonus share issue or stock split".

in kenya, our market is not efficient at the semi strong form.Tests regarding event studies and predicting cross sectional retrurns prove that for a fact coz of insider trading and crude practices by security analysts.

Having said the above, automatic adjustments to the actions said above may make a stock to either over adjust or under adjust.

This necesitates rebalancing don't you think? (passively)
Scooby
#10 Posted : Thursday, December 15, 2011 7:41:34 PM
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Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Emlyn,

It is true that such automatic adjustments could necessitate rebalancing.

But what I have seen over time is that an investor would initially decide to set a tolerance limit for any share in the index.

For instance, if the percentage holding for Uchumi within the index is 2.5%, then an investor may allow the holding to vary between 2% and 3% of the portfolio.

That way, one avoid many instances of rebalancing of the index thereby reducing transaction costs and net returns.

Regards


emlyn ngwiri
#11 Posted : Friday, December 16, 2011 7:57:01 AM
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Joined: 8/12/2010
Posts: 129
Location: nairobi
how would one vary the percentage holding in a given stock? (passively)

rgds

GGK
#12 Posted : Friday, December 16, 2011 8:33:25 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 608
Location: Ruiru
This is one of those threads that I can't contribute. But it is enlightening all the same.
"..I am because we are. "― Ubuntu, Umtu,
Scooby
#13 Posted : Monday, December 19, 2011 9:34:31 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Emlyn,

The decision to vary the percentage holding (what am referring to as tolerance limit) is to some extent, influenced by an investor’s risk appetite.
Let me try to expain with the following fictional examples...

A young investor who has recently left campus, and is employed, is likely to desire a wider tolerance limit as s/he believes that the value of their portfolio will increase in the long term. In addition, the investor will recover the losses from future employment income.

In contrast, another investor who has kids in school would have a lower tolerance limit as they do not want to loose a lot of their investments bearing in mind their parental obligations. They also don’t have a “longer” time to work hence would want to save as much as they can.

Hope this helps.

Regards
emlyn ngwiri
#14 Posted : Tuesday, December 20, 2011 7:44:46 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/12/2010
Posts: 129
Location: nairobi
Thanks scooby.

do we have an active or passive bond market index in kenya (running)?
Scooby
#15 Posted : Tuesday, December 20, 2011 10:39:13 PM
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Joined: 9/2/2006
Posts: 121
Emlyn,

We dont have a passive market in Kenya. Am yet to see our so called investment banks introducing an index fund that contains all the shares in NSE 20 Share Index or NSE All Share Index.

Also, we could also have sub indices based on a particular sector. That way, one can be able to easily judge if an investor made returns based on their skill and knowledge or while riding the wave.

I can say we do have some form of an active market.

What am seeing in the market is that fund managers are determining the "index return" and comparing their performance against it. The index return is simply equal to (ending index value less beginning index value)/ beginning index value.

Ideally, the starting point for any active manager is an index fund. We can then find out, to what extent, their performance is attributed to the return on index and the other on their skill and knowledge in generating alpha (i.e. returns over an above the index return).

Regards
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