Rank: Bona-fide Joined: 11/2/2011 Posts: 191 Location: Nairobi
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The CBK got an injection of forex funds from the IMF to the tune of US$144Mn  quot; (my reaction exactly). Yesterday they used REPOs to mop up Kes.2Bn and today they are in the market again to mop up a further Kes.4Bn, all this to support the shilling which is trading at 87.3 to the US$. We had predicted it will close the year at 87.5 but now things are looking better, how low do you think it can go? I'm thinking 84 by end year, what are your thoughts? Follow us on Twitter @genghiscapital
“Be a yardstick of quality. Some people aren’t used to an environment where excellence is expected.” Steve Jobs,iGenius
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Tomorrow banks comply with new CRR levels (4.75% to 5.25%) read somewhere that that is approx. a further 7.5B off the table. USD/KES @80 is my target.
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Rank: Bona-fide Joined: 11/2/2011 Posts: 191 Location: Nairobi
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Tomorrow banks comply with new CRR levels (4.75% to 5.25%) read somewhere that that is approx. a further 7.5B off the table. USD/KES @80 is my target. Read that too so might we see it below the 80 mark? Follow us on twitter @genghiscapital for latest forex info Follow us on Twitter @genghiscapital
“Be a yardstick of quality. Some people aren’t used to an environment where excellence is expected.” Steve Jobs,iGenius
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/25/2010 Posts: 939 Location: Nai
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GenghisCapitalLtd wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Tomorrow banks comply with new CRR levels (4.75% to 5.25%) read somewhere that that is approx. a further 7.5B off the table. USD/KES @80 is my target. Read that too so might we see it below the 80 mark? Follow us on twitter @genghiscapital for latest forex info around 78 am that optimistic 
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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jamplu wrote:GenghisCapitalLtd wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Tomorrow banks comply with new CRR levels (4.75% to 5.25%) read somewhere that that is approx. a further 7.5B off the table. USD/KES @80 is my target. Read that too so might we see it below the 80 mark? Follow us on twitter @genghiscapital for latest forex info around 78 am that optimistic When we get to 80 then upper 70s will be a possibilty. Let's see.
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Rank: User Joined: 11/10/2010 Posts: 550 Location: Junction
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Why are we fascinated by dollars. Does America have a Kenya shilling reserve? I thought we should be having Yuans, Ugandan/Tz shillings and the likes if our biggest trading partners are what matters. I mean, why buy the car from japan in dollars when the japs have yen? By inference, the man is all that Mr Phantom is not: an untrustworthy radical, divisive, too many enemies, a dictator, and a persistent liar...Gaitho dialogues.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,261 Location: Nairobi
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Kihangeri wrote:Why are we fascinated by dollars. Does America have a Kenya shilling reserve? I thought we should be having Yuans, Ugandan/Tz shillings and the likes if our biggest trading partners are what matters. I mean, why buy the car from japan in dollars when the japs have yen? Well, coz we hardly export anything to Japan/China so where do we source Yen/Yuan from? I can understand your views on Uganda & Tanzania but the 'catch' is their exporters want $$$. Also we export much more to them than the imports so its a 'net inflow' for us i.e. they send us $$$. Also a little more reading might help you... Yuan trading is very limited. Not fully liberalized like US$. China restricts the use of Yuan in foreign markets or trades. The Chinese firms quote $$$ for their products for export. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Oil & other commodities (which we import) on the international mkt are quoted in which currency?? And that's why USD/KES remains a big deal.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Oil & other commodities (which we import) on the international mkt are quoted in which currency?? And that's why USD/KES remains a big deal. Nevertheless, I agree 100% on need to expand/diversify our FX reserves to contain currencies of our major trading partners.
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 608 Location: Ruiru
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vicious cycle: strong KSh, more and more unnecessary imports. We need an import policy. "..I am because we are. "― Ubuntu, Umtu,
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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GGK wrote:vicious cycle: strong KSh, more and more unnecessary imports. We need an import policy. A sober fiscal policy. That should fix the huge gap.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:jamplu wrote:GenghisCapitalLtd wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:Tomorrow banks comply with new CRR levels (4.75% to 5.25%) read somewhere that that is approx. a further 7.5B off the table. USD/KES @80 is my target. Read that too so might we see it below the 80 mark? Follow us on twitter @genghiscapital for latest forex info around 78 am that optimistic When we get to 80 then upper 70s will be a possibilty. Let's see. CBK printing USD via IMF swap lines... Indeed freakonomics with a mighty KES to boot!
Since it is pointless to fight this CBK bazooka, for now banks should short EURKES with 90/- as the target. Then the rotation in Q2 2012 will be to short GBPKES to 100. Money cycles are very interesting i.e. funds flows... We will see how euroland debt bomb deflates.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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GGK wrote:vicious cycle: strong KSh, more and more unnecessary imports. We need an import policy. High interest rate regime should curtail discretionary imports (I think/hope)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/28/2008 Posts: 2,276 Location: Kibish
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Around 80 . Nadondosha meli kubwa seuze ngalawa!
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Rank: Bona-fide Joined: 11/2/2011 Posts: 191 Location: Nairobi
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We have, for some time now, been calling for USD/KES to hit 87.50 which had earlier forecast as our "worst case scenario" for the month of December. While we note that the VWAP on USD/KES trade was much higher at 88.15, we feel confident that further forays into the market by the Central Bank will see KES continue to strengthen for the reminder of the year. We therefore turn our focus to our base case which was for USD/KES to hit 85.55 and highlight this as our next target. Our best case for the month remains 82.15. Follow us on Twitter @genghiscapital
“Be a yardstick of quality. Some people aren’t used to an environment where excellence is expected.” Steve Jobs,iGenius
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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GenghisCapitalLtd wrote:We have, for some time now, been calling for USD/KES to hit 87.50 which had earlier forecast as our "worst case scenario" for the month of December. While we note that the VWAP on USD/KES trade was much higher at 88.15, we feel confident that further forays into the market by the Central Bank will see KES continue to strengthen for the reminder of the year. We therefore turn our focus to our base case which was for USD/KES to hit 85.55 and highlight this as our next target. Our best case for the month remains 82.15.
Cool...
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/16/2009 Posts: 1,464
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Sorry guys,
Pls enlighten me, what does 'REPO-MEN' refer to?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/2/2007 Posts: 8,776 Location: Cameroon
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Pierce wrote:Sorry guys,
Pls enlighten me, what does 'REPO-MEN' refer to? A certain movie about a powerful cartel leasing artificial organs and violently dealing with defaulters. Hence REPO=Repossession. TULIA.........UFUNZWE!
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Rank: Bona-fide Joined: 11/2/2011 Posts: 191 Location: Nairobi
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Pierce wrote:Sorry guys,
Pls enlighten me, what does 'REPO-MEN' refer to? It is a play of words since the CBK is using REPOs as a tightening policy strategy to support the shilling therefore coining the word REPO-MEN refers to the CBK and the strategy employed. I hope it makes sense Pierce and besides it just stands out doesn't it?  Follow us on Twitter @genghiscapital
“Be a yardstick of quality. Some people aren’t used to an environment where excellence is expected.” Steve Jobs,iGenius
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Rank: Bona-fide Joined: 11/2/2011 Posts: 191 Location: Nairobi
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simonkabz wrote:Pierce wrote:Sorry guys,
Pls enlighten me, what does 'REPO-MEN' refer to? A certain movie about a powerful cartel leasing artificial organs and violently dealing with defaulters. Hence REPO=Repossession. Thank you simonkabz and it was a good movie with Forrest Whittaker but I didn't mean it in that context, please refer to the above explanation I just wrote for Pierce. Follow us on Twitter @genghiscapital
“Be a yardstick of quality. Some people aren’t used to an environment where excellence is expected.” Steve Jobs,iGenius
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