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Economic growth drops to 1.7%
mwanahisa
#1 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2009 4:51:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
It's now official that the Kenyan economy grew by a shockingly low 1.7%,lower than even the most pessimistic pundits (including World Bank and IMF) had predicted. Kimunya and Njuguna should be made to eat humble pie in public! The report on the past year is an exercise of looking in the rear view mirror,which while useful in guiding policy for corrective actions is limited with regard to providing investors with pointers for which areas of the economy will do well going forward. All the same,what are your expectations of which sectors will do well and by extension which companies will prove to be resilient in the face of the ongoing global economic turmoil?

Opportunity calls but few respond.
jammo
#2 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2009 5:11:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/12/2008
Posts: 345
Kenya is broke becaused we 'thinked' it broke!

First half of year was generally due to effects of post elections drama settling in...the latter part of the year was TOTALLY uncalled for..the country reacted to global crisis like an errant mischiev-ius boy reacts psychologically as accomplices get punished befor him! We spoke our selves into a recession yet as the plannin minister rightly put out..the recession is YET to FIRMLY IMPACT the country!..by end of 1st quarter 09 impact was greatly limited to Tourism..now It's spread to agric,service sector,financial n manufacturing...

DISCLAIMER: This is the opinion of one Jammo,CFA,CPA,Opinionated and Loud,based in nairobi. Whilst care has been taken in compiling the data to be as most factual n logical,he doesn't accept any responsibility of accuracy or completeness of info contained herein..neither does he purport to be a genius!
Djinn
#3 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2009 5:29:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/13/2008
Posts: 1,565
You cannot blame Kimunya and Ndungu for the global crisis which has affected tourism,exports,services,investment in Kenya. We are lucky to have 1.7% - other economies have shrunk...half full glass ok? Otherwise nay saying will take us to hell.

The problem with equality is that we desire that it be with those that have more than us rather that those that have less
jammo
#4 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2009 6:26:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/12/2008
Posts: 345
..
..just a thought..

Government froze hiring late last year..albeit load of people bein retired,retrenched,fired,incapacitated or dead,or hav quit..

Accordin to FKE..50% of firms in kenya will lay off employees this year,all in all...about 30% of current workforce will be sent off..
New jobs n employees taken up will be less than 5%overall applicants...

With all graduants of universities n tertiary institutions,employees seekin greaner pastures..
2009-2010 is goin to be quite a season.

Global financial crisis...mhmmm! Karibu kenya! Hakuna Matata.

DISCLAIMER: This is the opinion of one Jammo,CFA,CPA,Opinionated and Loud,based in nairobi. Whilst care has been taken in compiling the data to be as most factual n logical,he doesn't accept any responsibility of accuracy or completeness of info contained herein..neither does he purport to be a genius!
FundamentAli
#5 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2009 6:31:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/4/2008
Posts: 1,289
Location: Nairobi
I wonder what our population growth rate was. It must be higher than 1.7%. That means our per capita income reduced and therefore we are poorer.

Fundamentals + Sentiments = Position
Mainat
#6 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2009 6:56:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
In some ways,this is now history. It happened last yr and the concern should be what needs to be done the economy back to 6%+ growth.


Corruption- back in a huge way
Security-
Agriculture- its been raining and I still see no aggressive rain-harvesting measures. Can we stock/manufacture fertilisers and other imported farm inputs as a hedge against oil price rises next yr? Dairy farming needs to become a blueprint for maize farming.
Infrastructure-getting roads and internet will help. But planning especially in the building industry is so needed and wider economy. Lots of intiatives but nobody seems to do some joined-up thinking
CDF-why is this being neglected and could really help grow the economy?
Export brains-lots of educated graduates-rather than aid that goes into pockets why not sign some agreements to send some of our graduates on placements abroad?
Typing errors-this is a a primary school exercise...


www.mjengakenya.blogspot.com
Sehemu ndio nyumba
Djinn
#7 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2009 11:19:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/13/2008
Posts: 1,565
@Mainat 'Export brains-lots of educated graduates-rather than aid that goes into pockets why not sign some agreements to send some of our graduates on placements abroad?' I recall some story this week of the OPPOSITE happening - Kenyan firms are looking at wooing back Kenyans in the Diaspora - esp since they out there are facing downsizing.

The problem with equality is that we desire that it be with those that have more than us rather that those that have less
jammo
#8 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2009 11:50:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/12/2008
Posts: 345
Most income is spent on consumption n end user goods..than on infrastructural n intermediate processes... Teachers takin biggest chunk for a product whose utility can't be guaged.

DISCLAIMER: This is the opinion of one Jammo,CFA,CPA,Opinionated and Loud,based in nairobi. Whilst care has been taken in compiling the data to be as most factual n logical,he doesn't accept any responsibility of accuracy or completeness of info contained herein..neither does he purport to be a genius!
Ruchwarsteve
#9 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2009 2:29:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/8/2009
Posts: 34
This measure is unreliable and invalid. To base investment decision sorely on it is folly.


RUCHWARSTEVE -super surfing
murenj
#10 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2009 5:25:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/22/2008
Posts: 851
Location: nairobi
When the economy was growing,they credited it to kibaki. Now it is declining we should blame it on the kikuyu.

Guka killer.
caesar
#11 Posted : Friday, May 22, 2009 7:55:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/25/2007
Posts: 149
I blame it on coalition government

The unnessesary payroll of 40 ministers

MPs who just sit in Parliament and never pass any useful legislation

Failure to rain

Rising Oil prices

Unrest and insecurity

Global crisis

This is what we are capable of changing

1. Decreasing Parliamentary,cabinet,and excecutive related payroll

2. Unrest and insecurity,because people determined can just change their attitudes

3. MP's gaining a sense of urgency and acting decisively on reforms
jokes
#12 Posted : Monday, May 25, 2009 3:38:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/1/2008
Posts: 323
i think this is the best time to invest. prices are low and it will not last forever.

have you noticed how house and land prices have dropped in posh areas?

have you noticed the governments appetite for money?

have you noticed the gradual increase in the nse index?



A Journey begins with the first step.
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