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CBK’s liquidity squeeze set to raise cost of goods
beiyangu
#1 Posted : Tuesday, November 22, 2011 10:17:59 AM
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Joined: 7/11/2011
Posts: 50


The much anticipated appreciation of the shilling might not result in affordable commodity prices despite a marked decline in key raw material prices on the world market.
Importers of raw materials such as oil and steel who rely on financing from banks are being forced to pay higher interest rates after the Central Bank of Kenya hiked its lending rate from 11 per cent to 16.5 per cent early this month. Read more.

Compare Supermarket Prices in Kenya | BeiYangu
Cde Monomotapa
#2 Posted : Tuesday, November 22, 2011 10:33:04 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
I think the impact of the cost of credit as component/percentage of the cost of sales is over-rated.
kizee1
#3 Posted : Tuesday, November 22, 2011 10:36:27 AM
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Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
this article makes NO sense! PPM(purchasing power of money) is inversely proportional to quantity of money, thus if the quantiy of money is reduced(tightening)how will the price of goods increase?
Cde Monomotapa
#4 Posted : Tuesday, November 22, 2011 11:14:19 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Like a cement co.will say its biggest cost is energy or KQ-jet fuel or E.A Cables/Sameer/Neveready-intl.metal/commodity prices. See what i mean?
VituVingiSana
#5 Posted : Tuesday, November 22, 2011 11:31:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Depends on the LEVERAGE the firm employs in its business (both Long-term & Short-term)...

KenolKobil (like most OMCs) borrow short-term money (now at 24% or higher even for AAA firms) thus those costs will be passed on in some form or fashion. For KK, it means only import that which sells ASAP if under price controls i.e. do not import fuel for sales to the Wholesale Market.

Many banks will only lend to AAA customers at Overnight Rates [The bank can lend in the Overnight Market at 33% so why lend at less than that to a Customer?]

ARM will be affected as it is highly leveraged. Thanks to competition it might not raise its prices but if one competitor raises prices so do others.

Retail Segment e.g. Uchumi, etc... all will raise prices as their suppliers raise prices.

Simple calculation:

KES 50mn gets you 20% (even 25%) for short-term deposits. As a business, if you have cash... put it in T-Bills or Deposits. Why take the risk of fluctuating forex, high interest rates, etc to make 25% margin... when you can sit back & relax?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Cde Monomotapa
#6 Posted : Tuesday, November 22, 2011 12:17:33 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Like in the latest ERC review, OMCs were awarded 0.69cts to cater for interest hike but as U can tell Forex rates & Murban Crude prices are what is causing the most pain.
2012
#7 Posted : Tuesday, November 22, 2011 1:11:29 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
kizee1 wrote:
this article makes NO sense! PPM(purchasing power of money) is inversely proportional to quantity of money, thus if the quantiy of money is reduced(tightening)how will the price of goods increase?


The price of goods will increase because the trader needs to make enough profits to repay the expensive bank loan and sustain the business.

BBI will solve it
:)
kizee1
#8 Posted : Tuesday, November 22, 2011 1:35:09 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
2012 wrote:
kizee1 wrote:
this article makes NO sense! PPM(purchasing power of money) is inversely proportional to quantity of money, thus if the quantiy of money is reduced(tightening)how will the price of goods increase?


The price of goods will increase because the trader needs to make enough profits to repay the expensive bank loan and sustain the business.

how will the price increase be sustained amidst lower supply of money?
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