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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#1141 Posted : Saturday, November 12, 2011 1:06:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Where are we in the whole Eurozone debt crisis, strengthening local currency, high interest rate. vis a vis the stock market. The dynamics have changed slightly for the better, where does that leave the N.S.E

1. We or our banks have no exposure to Western sovereign debt crisis (same as 08/09), 2. The CBK and the rains are doing a great job taming (import) inflation expectations (stronger KES), 3. Factor no.2 will restore the real economy/mainstreet (remember Kenya is still predominantly a cash economy, thank goodness, thus savings on basics will be felt instantly) 4. Investors will enjoy after factors 2 & 3 are successful and stable and then CBK will loosen the noose on rates and everyone will be happy smile For now we restore the real economy/mainstreet so we can be busy accumulating stocks in anticipation.

Well put @Cde. As our founding father said at Independence, sasa turudi mashambani, although ofcourse people misunderstood him. Man, looking back, i can only say the guy had vision!
Lets roll up our sleeves!
@SufficientlyP
Cde Monomotapa
#1142 Posted : Saturday, November 12, 2011 1:55:08 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Where are we in the whole Eurozone debt crisis, strengthening local currency, high interest rate. vis a vis the stock market. The dynamics have changed slightly for the better, where does that leave the N.S.E

1. We or our banks have no exposure to Western sovereign debt crisis (same as 08/09), 2. The CBK and the rains are doing a great job taming (import) inflation expectations (stronger KES), 3. Factor no.2 will restore the real economy/mainstreet (remember Kenya is still predominantly a cash economy, thank goodness, thus savings on basics will be felt instantly) 4. Investors will enjoy after factors 2 & 3 are successful and stable and then CBK will loosen the noose on rates and everyone will be happy smile For now we restore the real economy/mainstreet so we can be busy accumulating stocks in anticipation.

Well put @Cde. As our founding father said at Independence, sasa turudi mashambani, although ofcourse people misunderstood him. Man, looking back, i can only say the guy had vision!
Lets roll up our sleeves!

smile we have a chance to mind our business and we have a lot to do within our borders/region. Kazi Iendelee!
ericachesa
#1143 Posted : Saturday, November 12, 2011 5:10:18 PM
Rank: Hello


Joined: 11/12/2011
Posts: 1
i am new to the stock exchange.i have just bought shres for kcb and kenya airways how long will it take to get good returns.please advice.i also need a mentor who is 5 years older than me.if you are willing to help please contact me on my email address (ericachesa@yahoo.com)
QW25081985
#1144 Posted : Saturday, November 12, 2011 5:18:40 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/29/2011
Posts: 1,045
Location: Mtaani
ericachesa wrote:
i am new to the stock exchange.i have just bought shres for kcb and kenya airways how long will it take to get good returns.please advice.i also need a mentor who is 5 years older than me.if you are willing to help please contact me on my email address (ericachesa@yahoo.com)



now you are a funny lot : the index has slumped 30% so far from jan and you want to make returns ????? Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you
No you even make a more worse blunder and buy when the index is falling .Ontop of that you bought KQ and its planning to do a right issue . Gai fafaf.I donot mean to be rude but me i think you arenot intouch with the market and you shoudnt even be buying stocks.Let me prepare you mentally YOU'LL NOT GET YOUR RETURNS THIS YEAR !!!!!!! whenever you go to your broker have that in mind.
we are in a bear year and this are bad in the index..
youcan'tstopusnow
#1145 Posted : Saturday, November 12, 2011 5:28:45 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
ericachesa wrote:
i am new to the stock exchange.i have just bought shres for kcb and kenya airways how long will it take to get good returns.please advice.i also need a mentor who is 5 years older than me.if you are willing to help please contact me on my email address (ericachesa@yahoo.com)

No one knows. Hakuna aliyejua.
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
Cde Monomotapa
#1146 Posted : Saturday, November 12, 2011 6:40:44 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
ericachesa wrote:
i am new to the stock exchange.i have just bought shres for kcb and kenya airways how long will it take to get good returns.please advice.i also need a mentor who is 5 years older than me.if you are willing to help please contact me on my email address (ericachesa@yahoo.com)

No one knows. Hakuna aliyejua.

Wazee ni wengi huku experience/participation wise. Stick around and u'll get to choose for yourself who as a mentor. Happy Investing & welcome to Wazua. P.S KCB Group is a.k.a Roar!! or Loar!! in these parts and highly associated to a certain Wazuan smile
Aguytrying
#1147 Posted : Saturday, November 12, 2011 7:02:31 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
[quote=Aguytrying]Where are we in the whole Eurozone debt crisis, strengthening local currency, high interest rate. vis a vis the stock market. The dynamics have changed slightly for the better, where does that leave the N.S.E

1. We or our banks have no exposure to Western sovereign debt crisis (same as 08/09), 2. The CBK and the rains are doing a great job taming (import) inflation expectations (stronger KES), 3. Factor no.2 will restore the real economy/mainstreet ( NICE perspective, things abit clearer now.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Aguytrying
#1148 Posted : Saturday, November 12, 2011 7:08:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
ericachesa wrote:
i am new to the stock exchange.i have just bought shres for kcb and kenya airways how long will it take to get good returns.please advice.i also need a mentor who is 5 years older than me.if you are willing to help please contact me on my email address (ericachesa@yahoo.com)

Welcome to wazua. Before you start buying, learn about stocks. U can start at investopedia.com. You will also learn from some people here. You have to do your own research, don't just rely on people. Your buys are not bad, you have got them at a low price. Kcb give it 2 yrs plus. Kq- around five years. If u are sure about kq, when there's a rights issue, u can get more shares. All the best.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
holycow
#1149 Posted : Saturday, November 12, 2011 8:24:29 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/11/2006
Posts: 972
Location: Home
QW25081985 wrote:
ericachesa wrote:
i am new to the stock exchange.i have just bought shres for kcb and kenya airways how long will it take to get good returns.please advice.i also need a mentor who is 5 years older than me.if you are willing to help please contact me on my email address (ericachesa@yahoo.com)



now you are a funny lot : the index has slumped 30% so far from jan and you want to make returns ????? Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you
No you even make a more worse blunder and buy when the index is falling .Ontop of that you bought KQ and its planning to do a right issue . Gai fafaf.I donot mean to be rude but me i think you arenot intouch with the market and you shoudnt even be buying stocks.Let me prepare you mentally YOU'LL NOT GET YOUR RETURNS THIS YEAR !!!!!!! whenever you go to your broker have that in mind.
we are in a bear year and this are bad in the index..


Yawa Eric Nyamu, peleka your namesake Ericachesa/new member pole pole, he/she might not know what the index, bear, rights issue etc means, so explain like you would to a 5 year old. While at it, dont scare him/her with your Technical Analysis.
the deal
#1150 Posted : Saturday, November 12, 2011 8:40:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@Aguy Europe is the number one source of tourists for Kenya, Europe is also the number one market for Kenya's Agric produce, simply put Europe is the biggest forex earner for Kenya, if Europe goes the Shilling will take a beating cos very little forex inflows, the NSE?? U can gues wat will happen, so watch Europe with a keen eye...its a global issue.
QW25081985
#1151 Posted : Saturday, November 12, 2011 8:41:38 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/29/2011
Posts: 1,045
Location: Mtaani
holycow wrote:
QW25081985 wrote:
ericachesa wrote:
i am new to the stock exchange.i have just bought shres for kcb and kenya airways how long will it take to get good returns.please advice.i also need a mentor who is 5 years older than me.if you are willing to help please contact me on my email address (ericachesa@yahoo.com)



now you are a funny lot : the index has slumped 30% so far from jan and you want to make returns ????? Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you
No you even make a more worse blunder and buy when the index is falling .Ontop of that you bought KQ and its planning to do a right issue . Gai fafaf.I donot mean to be rude but me i think you arenot intouch with the market and you shoudnt even be buying stocks.Let me prepare you mentally YOU'LL NOT GET YOUR RETURNS THIS YEAR !!!!!!! whenever you go to your broker have that in mind.
we are in a bear year and this are bad in the index..


Yawa Eric Nyamu, peleka your namesake Ericachesa/new member pole pole, he/she might not know what the index, bear, rights issue etc means, so explain like you would to a 5 year old. While at it, dont scare him/her with your Technical Analysis.



i donot mean to be rude but when you are unsure about something the last thing you shld do is dip your two feet in .and am sure thats what she has done.
i thought a 30% decline on the index and the worlds worst performing currency might have spooked her. am just saying she need to go abit slow and find other channels for good returns like t-bills etc then come back to stock market
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#1152 Posted : Saturday, November 12, 2011 8:55:47 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,221
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
ericachesa wrote:
i am new to the stock exchange.i have just bought shres for kcb and kenya airways how long will it take to get good returns.please advice.i also need a mentor who is 5 years older than me.if you are willing to help please contact me on my email address (ericachesa@yahoo.com)

Don't attach so much weight on someone's age. Our last born here,@Nabwire(pretty gal) is probably the smartest.lol!
@SufficientlyP
the deal
#1153 Posted : Sunday, November 13, 2011 12:37:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
ericachesa wrote:
i am new to the stock exchange.i have just bought shres for kcb and kenya airways how long will it take to get good returns.please advice.i also need a mentor who is 5 years older than me.if you are willing to help please contact me on my email address (ericachesa@yahoo.com)

just live in reality not in the clouds...i'm barely 2$..so age is nothing, also always have a long term approach & lastly read read...if you read my blog u will learn a lot.
Cde Monomotapa
#1154 Posted : Sunday, November 13, 2011 6:53:28 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Aguytrying wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
[quote=Aguytrying]Where are we in the whole Eurozone debt crisis, strengthening local currency, high interest rate. vis a vis the stock market. The dynamics have changed slightly for the better, where does that leave the N.S.E

1. We or our banks have no exposure to Western sovereign debt crisis (same as 08/09), 2. The CBK and the rains are doing a great job taming (import) inflation expectations (stronger KES), 3. Factor no.2 will restore the real economy/mainstreet ( NICE perspective, things abit clearer now.

Most welcome smile
Cde Monomotapa
#1155 Posted : Sunday, November 13, 2011 6:58:43 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Aguytrying wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
[quote=Aguytrying]Where are we in the whole Eurozone debt crisis, strengthening local currency, high interest rate. vis a vis the stock market. The dynamics have changed slightly for the better, where does that leave the N.S.E

1. We or our banks have no exposure to Western sovereign debt crisis (same as 08/09), 2. The CBK and the rains are doing a great job taming (import) inflation expectations (stronger KES), 3. Factor no.2 will restore the real economy/mainstreet ( NICE perspective, things abit clearer now.

Most welcome smile
Aguytrying
#1156 Posted : Sunday, November 13, 2011 9:35:01 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
the deal wrote:
@Aguy Europe is the number one source of tourists for Kenya, Europe is also the number one market for Kenya's Agric produce, simply put Europe is the biggest forex earner for Kenya, if Europe goes the Shilling will take a beating cos very little forex inflows, the NSE?? U can gues wat will happen, so watch Europe with a keen eye...its a global issue.

i see your point. There's more hope now, than before. Please europe don't sneeze. Either way we are resilient and will come out stronger, better path of least resistance though.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
the deal
#1157 Posted : Sunday, November 13, 2011 10:37:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Financial/economic crisis present a perfect buying opportunity...buy the bears...sell the bulls...NOT the opposite!
erifloss
#1158 Posted : Monday, November 14, 2011 8:50:50 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
This European crisis might be worse than we are trying to perceive it here. Around 4 wks ago when most of us were happy about a Greek deal i asked whether there was a financial institution ready to take a 50% haricut, wks later non is ready.
1. The austerity measures in Greece is making its citizenry poorer thus less taxes collected thus less govt spending thus high unemployment rate then people going for benefits at last making their 'debts' grow. (our coffee gets less consumers and the cost less tourists).
2. Italy with a debt book of $2 trillion becomes another story as many financial institutions are highly exposed there. I think everyone knows where the highest number of 'Coast European' tourists come from.
3. The speed with which Berlusconi has had to resign with and a new govt formed tells alot. The contagion effect was going to be massive.
4. If Italy goes down, the chinese will have lost a huge market and part of their investments. Kenya, no more cheap China loans and grants, cheap projects etc.
5. Having a two tier Eurozone after the crisis will make it hard for the markets to value the Euro. There are already talks that some financial institutions have started revaluing debts, mortgages etc in some of these countries so as to dispose them fast.
All in all a Europe without adequate disposable income means less tourists, reduction of market for our horticulture, reduction of FDI's from both Europe and Asia Pacific (including China). NSE down, govt securities yield up(not always good for the economy). Overnight borrowing rates up making banks become net borrowers. Cheap loans out the window.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
Cde Monomotapa
#1159 Posted : Monday, November 14, 2011 9:46:28 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Kila kitu kina mwanzo na mwisho #Western economic domination. Cause & Effect discriminates not. Prepare yourselves for the New Economic World Order and if U live/invest in SSA (Sub Saharan Africa) put on ur money goggles as @hisah says.
Cde Monomotapa
#1160 Posted : Monday, November 14, 2011 9:56:29 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Capital (especially Private Capital) in its most basic nature pursues growth. Now, with that in mind where U live/invest you now have a general idea of what U have coming over the next decade smile
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