hi,

am looking to buy some shares,any one with advice on best performing shares to invest in for 2 to 3yrs?

Don't forget to put some money in KENGEN

Power demand is in over-drive. Have you seen the number of huge industries coming up? Two new cement factories in Athi River for example. Add the planned investment in new power projects and in 2-3yrs from now you will thank me!

Make sure you count the 4.2% commision before making any sell order otherwise you just be making money for your broker without making any money for yourself.




Everybody has a plan `till they get hit -Mike Tyson

I don't fully understand the insurance market. I can't clearly tell if it is growing or not...

Access at 30bob,NBK at 57bob,TPS at 60bob,Equity at 270bob,KCB @ 27. All of them shall have made some very nice capital gains and hence thou can sell at very good profits!

For a 2-3 year period,consider investing in a company where the top management /CEO holds a sizeable portion of the shares/ has a substantial interest in the company.Such a management will always strive to maximize on profitability and ensure the share price is always rising.

Based on the above argument,consider the following Companies:


EQUITY BANK

The company has consistently posted doubling of profits since it was listed and this trend is bound to continue within your investment horizon of 2-3 years.The CEO owns about 5% of the company.


ACCESS KENYA & SCANGROUP

Management has considerable interest/shareholding in the companies.Good growth prospects within 2-3 years.


KENYA RE

A new and determined CEO(the shareholding argument above does not apply here).The management is liquidating most fixed assets eg sold MOMBASA RE PLAZA to University of Nairobi to increase liquidity of its assets.In the process of selling more fixed assets to improve nature of its assets.A wonderful share to hold for the next 2-3 years.Good growth prospects.However,there is always the risk of a major calamity wipping a good portion of their profits.Limited also in the amount of dividends payable since they must retain a good portion of their profits.


KCB

A good buy especially now that the share is trying to find its market price after a 1:9 rights issue.Good returns within a 2-3 year window.

Some companies I have issues with (best avoided if better options available):


KQ

So long as the price of fuel keeps shooting to the stratosphere,the returns on investment on this share will keep suffering.The risks associated with the aviation industry are enormous eg rising global oil prices,terrorism/security challenges,political instability that negativily impacts on tourism.Coupled to this risks is the associated large capital outlay needed to purchase planes.This extensive capital requirements explains why the company can make KSH 12 per share but give out only KSH 1.75 as dividends.


SAFARICOM(I know majority will not agree with me here)

The comapny may be the most profitable in E.Africa but what is its growth prospects?Growing at a conservative 20% means it may be at plateau phase.The unit price of below Ksh6 may look attractive but what is the return on the Ksh 6? Ksh 0.05.

The company has also alot of capital requirements to keep ahead of its competitors and the CEO has talked of a possible Rights issue.That means additional shares for the already excessive supply in the market.

The much talked about MPESA product of the company is huge in turnover but what are the returns to the company? What little it brings,the lions share goes to the mother company(Read the IPO prospectus to see my point on this issue)


KENGEN

The cost of electricity in Kenya is about eight times that of Egypt.Reason is our inefficiency in power generation.Our drying dams are forcing generation of elec to be largely thru diesel generators.That leads me back to the issue of global oil prices and any industry that relies on this commodity will surely suffer.

The elc generation capacity by KENGEN needs to be upgraded and that means capital(low dividend payout)

You may consider TOTAL KENYA- if your focus is on dividend payable to you yearly-almost 10% return on investment every year on dividends(but expect little on price gain-price seems to be eternally stagnant between Ksh 30-33).

HAPPY HUNTING



Stocksmaster-For well researched market analysis

You're pick is strikingly similar to mine. I remove Scangroup throw in CMC.

Why not NMG post-split?

@franc5 2.5 dividend is 8.4% of the share value at the moment which is around 30.

With the large amount of shares safcom has will there not be a significant drop in price due to the cut in demand during co-op ipo and people wanting to get off and buy co-op,me I`m thinking of riding both of them buy safcom at during the co-op ipo at say 4.5 then get off at anything above 5.5 then buy co-op during the first days it trades.



Everybody has a plan `till they get hit -Mike Tyson

Check at the volume cfc is moving and u'l c how difficult it is to get them. 4000 (four thousand!)

If i become half a percentage smarter each year,I'll be a genius by the time i die.