Yes & No. Both businesses produce good returns (though they are lumpy!)

Unga - Year End 30 June 2011 - My forecast EPS 1.75+ thus attractive PER & great assets! The assets (land) is my backup! Land in Nairobi's industrial area which I have seen. It is grossly under-utilized. There are depots in Eldoret & Nakuru (which I have not seen).

Williamson - YE 31 March 2012 - I expect a 'cash' EPS of 25+ (based on 1Q tea prices + forex rate though a long way to go) so a decent PER & the land is my backup!

So even as operating businesses, they are OK in my view. Not high growth but profitable. The land is where I become 'rich' i.e. P/B is very low coz of the land!

@the deal - Ahhh, we were young once too!
The farmer in Kiambu who grew coffee for 30 years made more money from selling his land than he did from farming (which is sad in itself). So I am like that farmer except I am even 'paid' to keep my faith! Even during the 'worst' period in Kenya, the price of land remains 'steady' in many areas.

Spots on.

I can see everyone is touching the NSE with a very long pole. Those who will make money at the bourse are those who will buy at these uncertain times and they will be selling to you when you will be trooping back after the dust has settled.

I have read 3 'dates' for the election:

July/August 2012
Dec 2012
1Q 2013

I hope its July/August as long as IEC is ready to go!

Im sure we all wish it happens July/August, but since these goons still want to eat...and are not sure if they will be re-elected, Im seeing it being pushed somehow, 1Q 2013...

Williamson sells HQ. 1 down 1 to go? Talk of vindication

Ps: You can come out now

Update:

Williamson - Tea prices will remain strong 3Q 2011. Production will be lower than 2010.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Target = 300/-
[Perhaps 300 but not sure though the profits even without biological gains & sale of property will be through the roof]

KenolKobil - The best OMC in Kenya. Also regional expansion. For the patient. I am lucky I can buy these at 10/-. It is a gift.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Target = 13/- [but not for sale until Dec 2013 at 20/-]
[Did you see the 1H 2011 profits? And yummy dividend? And regional expansion? It is a shoo-in at 20/- by Dec 2013]

Kenya Airways - Great African & Asian opportunities as India+China trade with Africa increases + increased intra-Africa travel.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Target = 60/-
[It will announce 1H 2011-12 on 4 Nov 2011 but the price will remain subdued. The Rights Offer is hurting but the profits will be awesome with KES at 100/$]


KPLC - Rain/water/thermal/geothermal sources of power have increased so will sales. Kenya's strong economic growth means continuous need for additional electricity. I believe the 1H 2010-11 results will be very good.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Target = 28/-

[Share price collapsed but revenues are on the way UP in 2011-12 as will profits once the Rights cash is deployed. Great potential over the next 2-3 years]

Unga - [Coz someone asked] This is a 3-year play for me from mid-2010 not a 2011 performer. There is plenty of maize during 1Q 2011. Wheat is always imported so does not concern me as all millers are affected. If I owned 50% of Unga, I would sell the brand names, scrap/sell the machinery then use the cash to develop the land in Industrial Area.
Price on 3 Jan 2011 =
Mid-2013 Target = 20/- [+ dividends]

[Patience is key. Nice dividend. I might have to 'up' the time frame but the profits will continue being spectacular though I still prefer they develop the land!]