Is a green monday a signal of a +ve week?the rains have started pounding many parts including ukambani,.some corporate announcements expected..any excitement?

Some greens might have been envisaged, but the volumes are not any encouraging. Getting into the counters is becoming more and more difficult. It's time to start piling.

i'm thinking along those lines, this is likely the bear period, and 2012 will be less bearish, not more bearish as many expect. However, i think the market is yet to go down completely, dont be fooled by the green colour.

I would still go for stocks now and chase them to the very bottom i always think t-bills is for lazy investors a smart investor should only use t-bills to store an emergency fund which you then rollover. But with the current low values for stocks when a rebound comes stocks will still bring greater capital gains than the 14% for t-bills. It's time to accumulate stocks

Hi guys,
I have read, re-read, taken notes, studied, and repeated the process all over again on this particular thread.

my conclusion is, no one really knows when the bottom is coming.
Going by mwananchi,hisa, aguytrying, provedd, stocksmaster and mukiha, i have settled my mind to simply "follow the cash"
the big cash. institutional investors. and right now those ones are in TBILLs.

As hisa points out, for the next 12 months or so, as long as inflation gets higher, and MPC keeps rising base rate, not discounting cash already being dished out by politicians as elections nigh, the bottom remains a mirage.

i think.

question..
bearing all you have said above.. is Maili likely to make a return on investments within foreseeable future by buyin stocks or tbills?

moral authority is not an investment strategy...but preserving capital, ensuring a return and minimising risk are..and unfortunately..ceteris paribus.. tbills are in.

who did what or why is neither here nor there. Fact is...billionaires..which u aspire to be..are fashioned in economic downturns.

just a thought... effectively turning over 200k alternatively in tbills about thrice between june 2011 and june 2012.. with overall average int rate at 13%..or thereabout... what is your likely return within the period? what stock can with certainty give you that within same period?

its funny how guys castigating CBK are really enjoying returns on tbills/bonds.

jus saying.

@ProverB, let's take your argument to its logical conclusion, i run a number of small businesses i have 12 staff members who have in employment for the last four years, the company is doing and has healthy reserves but right now business is low and staff are idle and we have to service our loans and i'm actively thinking of firing half of them in December shifting to a virtual office to cut down on rent until things pick up again. So i will pick up the savings on staff costs and rent and pack it in t-bills and 6 kenyans will have no jobs including the office messenger who was hoping to get married in December. Like they say business is not charity. Just saying

Couldn't agree more.

I still don't get what the problem is. Knowing the bottom of a stock market is as simple as knowing when to plant your farm. You can read the signs of a gathering rain season.

Same case applies in the stock market, when interest on bonds keeps going up, you know the bear run is on high street. When interest on bonds start leveling, the stock market has hit rock bottom. When the interest rates on bonds start coming down, you better already be in stocks. Its like a level where one side is Bonds and the other Side is Stocks. Both sides cannot be high at the same time or low at the same time. But they can be level at the same time but with either of them heading in the oppossit direction.

any further dip will give me a heart attack