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Total issues a profit warning
VituVingiSana
#21 Posted : Wednesday, October 05, 2011 12:06:56 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
KK makes money through the entire chain. As @Stocksmaster pointed out & said many times in this forum... volumes beget 'lower' costs per unit & KK is pushing that through Deal Poa.

It's a virtuous cycle for KK. Volumes allow 'cheaper' fuel which it pushes through using Deal Poa which increases volumes... [All relative to other players]

The 'middlemen' or smaller OMCs are dying. KK remains an active seller in the Wholesale Market but it favors its RETAIL sales i.e. push more volumes through KK stations for higher margins than sell to middlemen.

An interesting phenomenon is that Petrol Stations in Nairobi are not increasing in number/density since land prices have jumped. This means the EXISTING stations can sell more at lower cost/unit...

All-in-all KK will have a great 2011 but 2012 looks even better as others 'die' off! I am sure the market share for KK will jump to 30% in 2012...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mkonomtupu
#22 Posted : Wednesday, October 05, 2011 3:59:20 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
KK cannot move beyond 25% market share otherwise they will have to sell assets just like Total was forced to sell the chevron assets. KK is now at 23.8%. unless you control 35% market share volumes doesn't mean much the margins still remain the same, the pricing formula only benefits oil companies if oil prices are very low which is unlikely
Sober
#23 Posted : Wednesday, October 05, 2011 8:11:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
i have been a trader of Total kenya for the last 4 years always buying at 28 and selling just before the books close at 33. This has always worked for me apart from thom this trend where it dropped to 26 when i had bought quite a volume at post 28. I cut down on the losses by buying more only for it to drop more.
I am proud to declare here that i made a loss by selling at 25.00 and i dont know where this share will end up.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
Realtreaty
#24 Posted : Wednesday, October 05, 2011 8:55:07 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 8/16/2011
Posts: 2,360
Sad d'oh! These are companies that operate under foreign parent company. They first serve their parent companies before they serve you. They have been found to cook results buy offering softloans but get hard inerests that must be paid as per demand. Through such behaviours the shareholder money is given away and govt looses tax money!Sad
McReggae wrote:
Total kenya has issued a profit warning, details to follow!!!

VituVingiSana
#25 Posted : Wednesday, October 05, 2011 9:59:09 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
mkonomtupu wrote:
KK cannot move beyond 25% market share otherwise they will have to sell assets

Where is that info from? Is it a regulation/law? Please let us know.

*Unless it is an acquisition not organic growth which in KK's case is the case*
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
StatMeister
#26 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2011 9:19:10 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
VituVingiSana wrote:
mkonomtupu wrote:
KK cannot move beyond 25% market share otherwise they will have to sell assets

Where is that info from? Is it a regulation/law? Please let us know.

*Unless it is an acquisition not organic growth which in KK's case is the case*


I think there is some such regulation
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
mkonomtupu
#27 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2011 5:37:50 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
VituVingiSana wrote:
mkonomtupu wrote:
KK cannot move beyond 25% market share otherwise they will have to sell assets

Where is that info from? Is it a regulation/law? Please let us know.

*Unless it is an acquisition not organic growth which in KK's case is the case*


@vvs this is the thinking at the Monopolies dept. which is now an authority under the Competition Act during the total takeover of chevron they said the big five controlled 84% so anyone above 25% market share will create competition concerns

Anyone in total will be interested in this- read carefully


Total SA (FP) says it’s confident of a “big find” in Kenya as France’s largest oil company makes East Africa a focus of investments in exploration.

“We are going there because we believe in it,” said Jacques Marraud des Grottes, head of Africa exploration and production for the Paris-based Total. The company is considering acquiring more permits in the Democratic Republic of Congo, or DRC, and could complete a deal to buy a share in Ugandan fields “very soon,” he said.

East Africa could hold more than 10 billion barrels of oil equivalent, according to a Total strategy outlook given in London today that said the company is creating a “new pole in a promising area.”

http://www.bloomberg.com...old-oil-discoveries.html
Cde Monomotapa
#28 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2011 6:10:40 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Please let's not inter-change down-stream & up-stream oil businesses. I.e Total Ke & Total SA (FP) respectively. We'll get burnt for mis-conception.
youcan'tstopusnow
#29 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2011 9:23:27 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Please let's not inter-change down-stream & up-stream oil businesses. I.e Total Ke & Total SA (FP) respectively. We'll get burnt for mis-conception.

Yeah. True that. But how will a 'big find' affect the fortunes of the two listed companies?
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
Cde Monomotapa
#30 Posted : Thursday, October 06, 2011 9:46:31 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Please let's not inter-change down-stream & up-stream oil businesses. I.e Total Ke & Total SA (FP) respectively. We'll get burnt for mis-conception.

Yeah. True that. But how will a 'big find' affect the fortunes of the two listed companies?


I think more volumes due to lower pump-prices c/o local production less pirates Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
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