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Scubidu
#1581 Posted : Sunday, September 25, 2011 6:07:47 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
karanjakinuthia wrote:
The Shilling has accomplished its first target of 98 to the U.S. Dollar despite interventions of the Central Bank of Kenya. This is a clear indication that the influences acting on the Shilling and other East African currencies are international.

With the benefit of hindsight, we can see that most emerging market currencies have been hammered with the emergence of the Greek and wider European debt debacle.

There is the possibility of the Shilling to re-test 82 to the U.S. Dollar, consolidate, then run away to 118 and 160. However, it seems unlikely in the short-term because the U.S. Dollar is strengthening versus major currencies.



Yap, everything EM has taken it in the chin since July slid over...

http://bloom.bg/oeCCSD



I heard traders locally bought the usd being sold on Friday by the Central Bank then pushed the currency higher. isn't that just sad ... intervention is futile. The Central Bank lacks the support from IMF.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
the deal
#1582 Posted : Sunday, September 25, 2011 7:13:01 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Kenya should not dare release its Debt-GDP figures otherwise we will be lending to GoK at 20% if debt to Gdp was at 50.5% in Dec 2010...the Shilling must be causing havoc...
Cde Monomotapa
#1583 Posted : Sunday, September 25, 2011 7:49:42 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
And then the USD & EUR will face major weakness going forward c/o the recession and we'll pay-back half the value Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
hisah
#1584 Posted : Monday, September 26, 2011 6:53:13 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
the deal wrote:
Kenya should not dare release its Debt-GDP figures otherwise we will be lending to GoK at 20% if debt to Gdp was at 50.5% in Dec 2010...the Shilling must be causing havoc...

This is why I'm hiding in T-Bill 91 day & rolling it over for I expect 18% interest to be paid by gubberment & KES will likely test 110 by then. I dont want discuss how damaging this will be to the econ going into an election period, with all the uncertainity. Very sad for mwananchi, but money got no morals & a disorderly money regulator will take it in the chin... Sad
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#1585 Posted : Monday, September 26, 2011 7:02:22 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Scubidu wrote:
hisah wrote:
karanjakinuthia wrote:
The Shilling has accomplished its first target of 98 to the U.S. Dollar despite interventions of the Central Bank of Kenya. This is a clear indication that the influences acting on the Shilling and other East African currencies are international.

With the benefit of hindsight, we can see that most emerging market currencies have been hammered with the emergence of the Greek and wider European debt debacle.

There is the possibility of the Shilling to re-test 82 to the U.S. Dollar, consolidate, then run away to 118 and 160. However, it seems unlikely in the short-term because the U.S. Dollar is strengthening versus major currencies.



Yap, everything EM has taken it in the chin since July slid over...

http://bloom.bg/oeCCSD



I heard traders locally bought the usd being sold on Friday by the Central Bank then pushed the currency higher. isn't that just sad ... intervention is futile. The Central Bank lacks the support from IMF.

@Scubidu - there is a saying in trading pits that says money has no morals. A disorderly regulator will always face a vulture like Mr Market if an opportunity arises. BoJ & SNB have faced a nasty Mr Market enough times since Asia 97 & GFC 2008 crises respectively. IMF has too much to juggle with euroland default looming & a fluffing US econ with equally bogus debt. IMF cant juggle a million pieces, some chips will have to fall down.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#1586 Posted : Monday, September 26, 2011 7:16:52 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Deutsche bank is pretty scared here with the current drought of long term funding since July 2011 in euroland...

http://www.scribd.com/do...-a-Del-Ever-Aging-World

Dexia bank is selling some assets. No estimate of performance for the rest of the year. Still short this stock & it remains a sellers magnet just like most euroland banks. Were it not for the naked short selling ban, some would be valued at pennies...

S&P reminders... http://ca.news.yahoo.com...h-ratings-212702541.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#1587 Posted : Monday, September 26, 2011 7:55:35 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
China installs gold vending machines.

http://timesofindia.indi...rticleshow/10121475.cms

http://www.breitbart.com....3b1&show_article=1
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Mainat
#1588 Posted : Monday, September 26, 2011 10:33:54 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
$2.7trn to rescue Europe. Officially, this is the largest nationalisation exercise ever undertaken. Transferring private debt to public debt. And people keep saying socialism is dead.
Sehemu ndio nyumba
hisah
#1589 Posted : Monday, September 26, 2011 11:06:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Mainat wrote:
$2.7trn to rescue Europe. Officially, this is the largest nationalisation exercise ever undertaken. Transferring private debt to public debt. And people keep saying socialism is dead.

Obviously the nationalization term has now been changed to socialization.

Btw I don't think will stem the selling tide on the market. If these global banks are forced to put the toxic assets on their balance sheets, even $10 Trillion cannot sort the mess! This is a classical replay of 2008. Promises promises promises... By Dec 2011 the script will be clear.

If you trade precious metals (gold/silver/platinum) prepare to load up by year end smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Scubidu
#1590 Posted : Monday, September 26, 2011 12:01:38 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
Scubidu wrote:
hisah wrote:
karanjakinuthia wrote:
The Shilling has accomplished its first target of 98 to the U.S. Dollar despite interventions of the Central Bank of Kenya. This is a clear indication that the influences acting on the Shilling and other East African currencies are international.

With the benefit of hindsight, we can see that most emerging market currencies have been hammered with the emergence of the Greek and wider European debt debacle.

There is the possibility of the Shilling to re-test 82 to the U.S. Dollar, consolidate, then run away to 118 and 160. However, it seems unlikely in the short-term because the U.S. Dollar is strengthening versus major currencies.



Yap, everything EM has taken it in the chin since July slid over...

http://bloom.bg/oeCCSD



I heard traders locally bought the usd being sold on Friday by the Central Bank then pushed the currency higher. isn't that just sad ... intervention is futile. The Central Bank lacks the support from IMF.

@Scubidu - there is a saying in trading pits that says money has no morals. A disorderly regulator will always face a vulture like Mr Market if an opportunity arises. BoJ & SNB have faced a nasty Mr Market enough times since Asia 97 & GFC 2008 crises respectively. IMF has too much to juggle with euroland default looming & a fluffing US econ with equally bogus debt. IMF cant juggle a million pieces, some chips will have to fall down.


Well these IMF chaps should have allowed us to get a eurobond years ago before they got us under their programmes. If they want to dictate how things are done in this country then they need to juggle. It's bad policy giving a country funds, but not paying attention to its use.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
hisah
#1591 Posted : Monday, September 26, 2011 12:42:48 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Scubidu wrote:
hisah wrote:
Scubidu wrote:
hisah wrote:
karanjakinuthia wrote:
The Shilling has accomplished its first target of 98 to the U.S. Dollar despite interventions of the Central Bank of Kenya. This is a clear indication that the influences acting on the Shilling and other East African currencies are international.

With the benefit of hindsight, we can see that most emerging market currencies have been hammered with the emergence of the Greek and wider European debt debacle.

There is the possibility of the Shilling to re-test 82 to the U.S. Dollar, consolidate, then run away to 118 and 160. However, it seems unlikely in the short-term because the U.S. Dollar is strengthening versus major currencies.



Yap, everything EM has taken it in the chin since July slid over...

http://bloom.bg/oeCCSD



I heard traders locally bought the usd being sold on Friday by the Central Bank then pushed the currency higher. isn't that just sad ... intervention is futile. The Central Bank lacks the support from IMF.

@Scubidu - there is a saying in trading pits that says money has no morals. A disorderly regulator will always face a vulture like Mr Market if an opportunity arises. BoJ & SNB have faced a nasty Mr Market enough times since Asia 97 & GFC 2008 crises respectively. IMF has too much to juggle with euroland default looming & a fluffing US econ with equally bogus debt. IMF cant juggle a million pieces, some chips will have to fall down.


Well these IMF chaps should have allowed us to get a eurobond years ago before they got us under their programmes. If they want to dictate how things are done in this country then they need to juggle. It's bad policy giving a country funds, but not paying attention to its use.

Their policy has always been debt entrapment...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Cde Monomotapa
#1592 Posted : Monday, September 26, 2011 1:18:22 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
In the words of Comrade @hisah..this is what Lame Street media failed to report during the weekend rendezvous.

.................
Developing countries from across the world, including Africa, are portraying themselves as "innocent bystanders" of the economic storm boiling out of Europe and the United States, and have joined the chorus calling on the European nations in crisis to bite the bullet of painful economic reforms.

"It is not easy, it is painful, and we went through the pain, and the Europeans must be prepared to go through the pain," African Development Bank President Donald Kaberuka told Reuters in an interview.

He said the reforms needed in the ailing southern European states involved the kind of overhauls of public finances and labor markets and other structural reforms that African nations -- with firm urging from the IMF and World Bank -- had tackled over the last two decades and now had results to show for it.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44661753
Cde Monomotapa
#1593 Posted : Monday, September 26, 2011 1:21:25 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
And when I over and over state here that I expect an avalanche of Portfolio & Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows into Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) out of the crisises abroad....the following statement further/better explains what I mean!!

...But he said emerging markets and low-income countries, the Africans included, had a role to play in trying to relaunch a new global growth momentum. "We have to get the ship moving, that requires all hands on deck," Kaberuka said.

Investment in infrastructure in Africa could help to rekindle aggregate demand for equipment and products from advanced economies, which in turn would put idle manufacturing capacity back into use, he said. This would make Africa's infrastructure agenda part of the global recovery efforts.
Cde Monomotapa
#1594 Posted : Monday, September 26, 2011 1:25:08 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
A genuine question that also invokes laughter on Africa's risk profile Vs. the West.

"But are we more risky than some of these peripheral countries in Europe, which have 150 percent of GDP in debt, 30 percent fiscal deficit?" Kaberuka asked.

"The outside world still sees Africa of yesterday. We believe that this is Africa's time," Kaberuka said.

While acknowledging major challenges on the continent -- huge infrastructure and energy deficits, shortages of skilled labor and the risk of political flare-ups -- he said the moment had come for what he called "a reprofiling of Africa's risk".

Beautiful............
hisah
#1595 Posted : Monday, September 26, 2011 4:05:06 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
A genuine question that also invokes laughter on Africa's risk profile Vs. the West.

"But are we more risky than some of these peripheral countries in Europe, which have 150 percent of GDP in debt, 30 percent fiscal deficit?" Kaberuka asked.

"The outside world still sees Africa of yesterday. We believe that this is Africa's time," Kaberuka said.

While acknowledging major challenges on the continent -- huge infrastructure and energy deficits, shortages of skilled labor and the risk of political flare-ups -- he said the moment had come for what he called "a reprofiling of Africa's risk".

Beautiful............


but who runs the ponzinomics? Not developing nations, so their good econ fundamentals don't matter at the ponzi high table Sad
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Cde Monomotapa
#1596 Posted : Monday, September 26, 2011 5:48:38 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
hisah wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
A genuine question that also invokes laughter on Africa's risk profile Vs. the West.

"But are we more risky than some of these peripheral countries in Europe, which have 150 percent of GDP in debt, 30 percent fiscal deficit?" Kaberuka asked.

"The outside world still sees Africa of yesterday. We believe that this is Africa's time," Kaberuka said.

While acknowledging major challenges on the continent -- huge infrastructure and energy deficits, shortages of skilled labor and the risk of political flare-ups -- he said the moment had come for what he called "a reprofiling of Africa's risk".

Beautiful............


but who runs the ponzinomics? Not developing nations, so their good econ fundamentals don't matter at the ponzi high table Sad

Street protests, foreclosures, bankruptcy, joblessness tell it all. U can fool the pple sometime, but u can't fool the pple all the time.
youcan'tstopusnow
#1597 Posted : Monday, September 26, 2011 5:49:58 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Quant trading: How mathematicians rule the markets
http://bbc.co.uk/news/mobile/business-14631547

Mathematicians, they say, do not understand markets. They deal in absolutes, not the irrational human behaviour that drives so many investment decisions.
As one leading actuary says: "Prices are determined by supply and demand, not by mathematics."
Could it be, then, that academic statisticians are congenitally unsuited to the job they are being paid to do?
Paul Wilmott, a prominent lecturer in quantitative finance, has questioned whether they are "capable of thinking beyond maths and formulas".
"Do they appreciate the
human side of finance, the herding behaviour of people, the unintended consequences?"
And if mathematicians do not, there is little chance the computer programmes they create will.
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
msaliti7
#1598 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 2:00:09 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 9/9/2011
Posts: 11
http://www.zerohedge.com...and-goldman-rules-world

And you thought wazua analysts were off the edge..
hisah
#1599 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 6:58:26 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Quant trading: How mathematicians rule the markets
http://bbc.co.uk/news/mobile/business-14631547

Mathematicians, they say, do not understand markets. They deal in absolutes, not the irrational human behaviour that drives so many investment decisions.
As one leading actuary says: "Prices are determined by supply and demand, not by mathematics."
Could it be, then, that academic statisticians are congenitally unsuited to the job they are being paid to do?
Paul Wilmott, a prominent lecturer in quantitative finance, has questioned whether they are "capable of thinking beyond maths and formulas".
"Do they appreciate the
human side of finance, the herding behaviour of people, the unintended consequences?"
And if mathematicians do not, there is little chance the computer programmes they create will.


Hii mnyama anaitwa HFT - high frequency trading. A Goldman Sachs favourite trading method together with other large hedge funds. HFTs are super front runners. Read about front running a market with HFT & some nasty practice called 'quote stuffing'.

To make money in the casino befriend the owners.

Large funds always make the market, not our pennies Sad
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#1600 Posted : Tuesday, September 27, 2011 7:17:02 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
US gubberment kicks their debt funding can down the road till Nov 18 to avoid another shutdown 4 days away from Sept 30. For those that have forgotten, the previous shutdown was almost attained on Aug 3 2011. So in less than 60 days another shutdown was looming. With the latest extension to Nov 18 that means the timer has been reset to 59 days from now.

Developing nations also do have gubberment funding issues, but for the owner of the global reserve currency unable to fund itself perpetually, but relying on monthly budgets, this ponzi game is done!?

With euroland on a default timer, US debt above $14 trillion, global debt is now unpayable. The only option is to reset the system with debt forgiveness as the main reset component.

http://bit.ly/pWrjr3
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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