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Ksh at its weakest since it floated in 1994
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the deal
#181 Posted : Friday, September 16, 2011 12:54:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
KES now trading at 95 against the USD track it live here http://contrarianinvestingkenya.info
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Mainat
#182 Posted : Friday, September 16, 2011 1:57:15 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
CBK will need to either throw a few more $s, increase CBR to 8.5% or do the intended IB sharpish. All short-term measures.
FX is best earned via selling products abroad. Like coffee (busy uprooting); tea; flowers; sight seeing
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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hisah
#183 Posted : Monday, September 19, 2011 11:42:01 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
USDKES testing 95.40 again... 100 is coming up before year end... Sad

http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-kes
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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FUNKY
#184 Posted : Monday, September 19, 2011 11:53:11 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
Buy now and sell it at hundred in December.
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Mainat
#185 Posted : Monday, September 19, 2011 12:03:19 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
96 is next key pt
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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the deal
#186 Posted : Tuesday, September 20, 2011 10:18:43 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
The Shilling at a fresh all time low...ermeging markets ccy have been nailed as long as the Euro zone crisis persist...
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the deal
#187 Posted : Tuesday, September 20, 2011 10:49:04 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Europe is Kenya's biggest forex earner I.e tourists...Agric produce are sold to the European market so any problems in the Euro zone directly affects Kenya and the Shilling.
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Mainat
#188 Posted : Tuesday, September 20, 2011 11:07:11 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Weirdly, I think most of the produce is paid in $s
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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hisah
#189 Posted : Tuesday, September 20, 2011 11:20:36 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
USDKES - tests 96... I will hold on to the T-Bills until the 91 day rates go to 18%.

http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-kes

Staying short KES until 100 is busted...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Cde Monomotapa
#190 Posted : Tuesday, September 20, 2011 11:33:38 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
EUR/USD flight to safety. That's where the bulk of KES problems lie.
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Mainat
#191 Posted : Tuesday, September 20, 2011 12:44:24 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Repatriations by hedge funds: One of the drivers of the current fx situation which is also related to the NSE long bear is fact that the ongoing EU crisis is forcing western repatriations.
Most Western hedge funds and investment banks have a an edgy fund which invests in frontier markets. However, this EU crisis has made investors nervous and many are asking for their funds back. This is ofcourse impacting Ksh as well as the NSE.
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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'user'
#192 Posted : Tuesday, September 20, 2011 12:57:03 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 12/3/2010
Posts: 1,141
Location: Londokwe
Being a net importer , 100 is very bad for us .Only those in the export business may be laughing.
Cost of fuel , vehicles machinery, hence food ,will continue to go up.And as God is angry , rain has failed .My last weekend visit to Londokwe made me wonder how people continue to survive there.

Public debt and debt financing costs will also increase.
2012 is here.Kenya is Ours.Be Part of The Peace Keeping Mission To Protect Our Motherland.Say No To Violence and Tribal Hatred .If you can read this,wewe ni mtu amesoma, usifikirie kama mtu hajaenda shule .Ni Hayo Tu
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Mblue
#193 Posted : Tuesday, September 20, 2011 4:33:31 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/3/2011
Posts: 197
hisah wrote:
USDKES - tests 96... I will hold on to the T-Bills until the 91 day rates go to 18%.

http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-kes

Staying short KES until 100 is busted...


It has already hit 96.
"..one is only poor only if they choose to be.."-Dolly Partron
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hisah
#194 Posted : Tuesday, September 20, 2011 6:49:52 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@Mblue - Whoa! I was off forex for a while... Just seen 96 was taken out and now its positioned at 96.25. And I was expecting by this Friday or next Friday for 96 to be broken. Sad Sad

The T-Bill auction this Thursday and going forward will not be a funny place for CBK and I expect them to keep hiking the CBR for a while. Lending rates are bound to hit 20% at some point and defaults on mostly unsecured loans will be in plenty... Q4 2011 and full yr bank results will show this NPL spike. So buying bank stocks now is not advisable...

http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-kes
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Mainat
#195 Posted : Tuesday, September 20, 2011 7:24:56 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Dangerous times. CBK has apparently breached the IMF-imposed 4 month fx limit. Please note, IMF will only open its facility if CBK maintains this condition. This means it might not be able to intervene in the market by throwing dollars in. Are we back to increasing the discount window again?
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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QW25081985
#196 Posted : Tuesday, September 20, 2011 7:46:09 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/29/2011
Posts: 1,045
Location: Mtaani
[quote=hisah]@Mblue - Whoa! I was off forex for a while... Just seen 96 was taken out and now its positioned at 96.25. And I was expecting by this Friday or next Friday for 96 to be broken. Sad Sad

The T-Bill auction this Thursday and going forward will not be a funny place for CBK and I expect them to keep hiking the CBR for a while. Lending rates are bound to hit 20% at some point and defaults on mostly unsecured loans will be in plenty... Q4 2011 and full yr bank results will show this NPL spike. So buying bank stocks now is not advisable...

http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-kes[/quote]

so equity at 13.00 and co-op at 9 bob shld be in order . WoW
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kizee1
#197 Posted : Wednesday, September 21, 2011 11:37:38 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
97 paid
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Mainat
#198 Posted : Wednesday, September 21, 2011 11:41:12 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Kizee1-is it true that CBK is selling Ksh?
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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hisah
#199 Posted : Wednesday, September 21, 2011 11:42:34 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-kes - Crap 97 and counting...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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kizee1
#200 Posted : Wednesday, September 21, 2011 11:43:46 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
Mainat wrote:
Kizee1-is it true that CBK is selling Ksh?

techinacally

theyr doin a reverse repo at 400bpts below the overnite market! surely wth is wrong with these guys?
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