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KQ 1Q 2011 Passenger Numbers up 28%
VituVingiSana
#21 Posted : Monday, August 01, 2011 9:52:59 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
KENYA AIRWAYS OPERATING PERFORMANCE; 1
st
QTR – APRIL to JUNE 2011
Kenya Airways releases its operating results for the first quarter ended 30
th
Jun 2011.
The company put into the market place capacity totalling 3,386m seat kilometres which was 20.3%
better than last year’s level as a result of incremental destinations launched in the second half of 2010
to Rome(Italy), Luanda(Angola), Nampula(Mozambique), Malindi(Kenya), N’Djamena(Chad) and direct
flights to Malabo(Equatorial Guinea) and Nsimalen(Cameroun).
Capacity offered into Europe grew by 26.3% owing to the introduction of Rome and increased
frequencies to London (20.0%) and Amsterdam (12.3%) compared to the same quarter in prior year.
The Middle East, Far East and Asia regions registered a capacity growth of 22.3% as a result of
increased frequencies to Dubai via Muscat.
The Northern Africa region grew by 6.4% in capacity owing to the introduction of daily flights into Juba
in Southern Sudan on the Embraer aircraft. Capacity availed into the East African region grew by 7.5%
compared to last year due to increased utilisation of the Embraer fleet on short haul sectors especially
Kigali flights via Bujumbura.
The highest seat kilometre increase was registered in West Africa region. The 27.2% growth was due
to use of the larger B767 into Lagos and Freetown via Accra. Capacity offered in the Central Africa
region grew by 13.2% mainly from increased frequencies to Bangui and Libreville via Douala and
Kisangani route connecting through Entebbe. Capacity in Southern Africa grew by 6.8% due to
introduction of Nampula, increased frequencies to Harare via Lusaka and Lubumbashi via Ndola.
In the Domestic front, capacity grew by 62.5% compared to same period prior year largely due to
additional frequencies on Mombasa route named Mombasa Shuttle due to the average 10 daily
frequencies and the introduction of Malindi flights. Kisumu steadily grew by 95.8% after the reopening
of Kisumu airport that had been closed for runway upgrade and renovation.
Uptake of total production at 2,308m revenue passenger kilometres represents a 22.0% growth
compared to last year while the total passenger tally, which closed on 850,908 increased by 27.6%.
The growth underpins increased long haul customer travel to Europe, Middle East and Far East
Regions. The resulting average cabin factor at 68.1% was marginally above prior year’s 67.2%.
Cargo tonnage at 15,286 increased by 19.8% compared to last year’s level emphasizing the improved
business atmosphere.
Passenger uplift to Europe at 108,835 indicates a 16.9% year on year growth on the back of improved
capacity base resulting to 65.2% occupancy level which was however, 5.8 points lower to same period
prior year.

In the Middle East, Far East and Asia regions passenger traffic increased by 30.8% against a capacity
growth of 22.3%. The realised cabin factor of 78.3% was 4.7 points better than prior year’s 73.6%.
Within Africa but excluding Kenya, total enplanements totalled 432,366 being a 18.1% growth
compared to 13.3% capacity growth resulting to passenger load factor of 64.1%. This was 3.2 points
better than same period prior year.

Passengers uplifted within Kenya at 184,845 were 65.0% above prior year’s level of 112,020. The
resulting cabin factor of 71.9% remained largely flat compared to 71.7% achieved last year.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#22 Posted : Tuesday, August 02, 2011 12:13:41 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
KQ at a PE of 4.2 is a big bargain...i'm praying for a Rights Issue sorry current shareholdets...but my gut tells me thete is money to be made here...
StatMeister
#23 Posted : Tuesday, August 02, 2011 9:11:28 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
VituVingiSana wrote:
I repeat:

Fire all the staff, sell all the planes, pay off all the debts, shut the business. Distribute the cash!

I will be much happier considering the cash on hand after all the above will be over 45/- per share!



KQ had annual fleet cost of 9,622m. If the decided to double their fleet, they would need an additional 9b in their P&L. I assume the new aircraft will generate the additional revenue required to offset this extra cost.

And that leaves me wondering what they actually need the additional (undisclosed) billions capital for.
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
StatMeister
#24 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 7:42:00 AM
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Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
Ok, this is not rolling out well, the treasury wants a smaller piece of the cake after all.

http://www.businessdaily...n/-/hak94ez/-/index.html
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
mlennyma
#25 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 8:11:41 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,191
Location: nairobi
22b from a dying market,i wonder what the rights price would be after factoring in books close.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
StatMeister
#26 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 8:21:21 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
mlennyma wrote:
22b from a dying market,i wonder what the rights price would be after factoring in books close.


22b for a company with a market cap of 14b. Lets see what the market thinks of this info.
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
Gordon Gekko
#27 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 1:30:07 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
StatMeister wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
22b from a dying market,i wonder what the rights price would be after factoring in books close.


22b for a company with a market cap of 14b. Lets see what the market thinks of this info.


What if KLM took extra rights (and also control of the company)?
hisah
#28 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 4:29:18 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Meanwhile KQ loses the 30/- handle... Mpesa and KQ shareholders are indeed made of steely nerves. I hope the rights can push this stock to 17/- back to 2009 lows for a good buy load up...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
the deal
#29 Posted : Saturday, September 10, 2011 7:30:37 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Matching increase in capacity with demand, avoiding overexpansion and competition will be the challenges post rights...
VituVingiSana
#30 Posted : Sunday, September 11, 2011 1:32:04 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
It's a business. Of course, there are challenges. Expecting anything on a platter is stupid & short-sighted.

What KQ needs is a strong will by KACC & GoK to go to each African country & say STOP protecting inefficient carriers.

I believe huge demand exists at the RIGHT price but African countries are 'greedy' for easy money.

Nairobi - Mombasa 45 mins for 11,000/-
Nairobi - Entebbe 60 mins for 33,000/-
Nairobi - Kigali 60 mins for 33,000/-
Nairobi - Dar 75 mins for 40,000/-
Nairobi - London 420 mins for 75,000/-

As you can see that the 'fees' tacked on for EAC flights are crazy!

Let all EAC flights be charged landing fees & taxes as DOMESTIC flights. Then we will see a HUGE boom in air travel.

Ghana charges $80 per passenger per (international) segment! Crazy for the small airport with few amenities vs Amsterdam or London or even Nairobi!

I like KQ's focus on smaller fuel-efficient Embraers that can use smaller African airports but can turn around faster so increased use in the air earning money than sitting on the ground.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#31 Posted : Tuesday, September 13, 2011 9:50:15 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
I hear there will be a big announcement this week...,!
2012
#32 Posted : Tuesday, September 13, 2011 10:05:24 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
I hear there will be a big announcement this week...,!


Figures or about the aircraft they bought from Brazil?
Kudos to KQ for ditching Boeing who have been snobbing them for bigger players.

BBI will solve it
:)
the deal
#33 Posted : Tuesday, September 13, 2011 10:16:21 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
2012 wrote:
the deal wrote:
I hear there will be a big announcement this week...,!


Figures or about the aircraft they bought from Brazil?
Kudos to KQ for ditching Boeing who have been snobbing them for bigger players.

It's about the Rights issue actually smile
mlennyma
#34 Posted : Tuesday, September 13, 2011 10:29:11 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,191
Location: nairobi
My rights price is 22-24 above this i'd rather be diluted and get in later at 18 to average.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
the deal
#35 Posted : Wednesday, September 14, 2011 2:40:31 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
A review of KQ's 1Q 2011/12 Passenger Numbers



1. Average Load Factors for the 1Q of 2011 came in around 68.1% slightly lower the 69.2% load factors achieved in FY 2010/2011. KQ's break even load factors for 2010/11 were 63.6%

2. Total passengers airlifted in 1Q of 2011 stood at 850908 which is 27.4% of the total passengers airlifted in FY 2010/2011

3. Considering KQ's Revenue per Available Seat Kilometer (RASK) for FY 2010/11 was 6.67 USc, one can easily estimate revenue for 1Q 2011/12 to be around Sh23.7 Billion if RASK increased by 5%

So as you can see from the above KQ started FY 2011/12 with a Bang!

Read more here http://www.contrarianinv...reliminary-analysis.html
VituVingiSana
#36 Posted : Wednesday, September 14, 2011 3:38:35 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
@the deal - Compare both FY numbers i.e. 1Q pax for both years as well as 1Q 2011-12 vs FY 2010-11. I believe 2Q (or is it 3Q) that is the busiest season?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#37 Posted : Wednesday, September 14, 2011 3:55:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
@the deal - Compare both FY numbers i.e. 1Q pax for both years as well as 1Q 2011-12 vs FY 2010-11. I believe 2Q (or is it 3Q) that is the busiest season?

Yep 3Q and 4Q are the busiest I have been testing my formula...its been pretty accurate in estimating revenue...2011/12 looks strong but not as strong as last year...i'm worried about the recent salary hike...it my temper with margins.
VituVingiSana
#38 Posted : Thursday, September 15, 2011 10:16:12 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,224
Location: Nairobi
@the deal - OK, whatever you say just dont confuse Revenue with Profits. I expect Revenue to grow strongly over 2010-11 (10%+) but not so sure about profits...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Cde Monomotapa
#39 Posted : Thursday, September 15, 2011 10:31:26 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
With South Sudans International Investor Conference in Oct.it will be BOOMING biz for KQ and if they like what they see it'll be avalanche repeat biz going forward.
the deal
#40 Posted : Thursday, September 15, 2011 10:39:19 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
@the deal - OK, whatever you say just dont confuse Revenue with Profits. I expect Revenue to grow strongly over 2010-11 (10%+) but not so sure about profits...

LoL net profit margins X revenue=profits....20% salary hike...i expect costs to be quiet high due to the weak Sh and inflation also huge fuel bill for unhedged fuel component...high airport taxes so net profit margins of 6% (IATA predicts net profit margins for the industry to be 1.4%) would translate to Sh6.4 Billion net profits if revenue clock Sh108 Billion...i call that the power of margins...
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