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Precision Air IPO
mwekez@ji
#1 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2011 9:17:25 AM
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Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Precision Air IPO open to Kenyan Buyers

http://www.businessdailyafrica....38/-/12p6sy/-/index.html
mlennyma
#2 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2011 9:31:26 AM
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Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,192
Location: nairobi
Tanzanian's are very retrogressive,i heard that a kenyan living in tanzania is the only eligible participant,as we cry to get foreign investors tz chases them away.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
tony stark
#3 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2011 9:34:07 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/8/2008
Posts: 947
Why are the selling???
People will be left holding monkeys with a lot of this IPOs.
Looking at the Kenya Tanzania travel how much do we expect this to increase? The current taxes are a bit high so numbers will not increase dramatically. The EA Community will help to increase travel between the 2 countries but if that is the only business they are pegging to increase their growth outlook is very poor.
If they say they are going to increase destinations to outside TZ and Kenya now they are in KQ turf which is difficult to penetrate. unless they try to compete as low cost carriers and at current international air travel taxes between African countries is not cheap low cost will be difficult.
So business prospects don't look great or good so why are they having an IPO.
Plain and simple KQ is cashing out when the tidings are good. Their prospectus will look good, their past 5 years also very good but their future is bleak.
I will be waiting for the prospectus.
Barrywhite
#4 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2011 9:59:57 AM
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Location: Nairobi
Whose share is being diluted? The Tanzanians or KQ's?
The laudable is more often than not rendered laughable by overclaim
Sober
#5 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2011 10:03:19 AM
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Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
this thing has been on and off for a very long time. even KQ is running out of patience
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
Gordon Gekko
#6 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2011 10:14:16 AM
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Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Barrywhite wrote:
Whose share is being diluted? The Tanzanians or KQ's?


PW is issuing authorized but unissued shares, which will have the effect of reducing KQ and Mr Shirima stakes. KQ will go down from 49% to slightly over 31%.

The objectives of the issue are 1. Capital for fleet renewal and 2. Involvement of TANZANIANS in the airline.

While KQ's holding will be reduced, the effect is that there will be more cash available to PW, meaning the KQ's share will be more valuable in the long run. The effect of the second objective will possibly be more use of the airline by Tanzanians, thereby increasing profits.

Bottom line - it is not a bad thing.
Barrywhite
#7 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2011 10:36:48 AM
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Joined: 12/2/2009
Posts: 286
Location: Nairobi
GG; its probably too early to tell as numbers are not out; but assuming the PW IPO & MTN Rwanda IPO come round about the same time, where would you put your money? Gut feel?
The laudable is more often than not rendered laughable by overclaim
VituVingiSana
#8 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2011 11:00:47 AM
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Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
KQ is not cashing out. The shares to be sold are 'new' shares thus diluting KQ & Shirima's stake [Note: I have no idea whether Shirima is selling his shares]

I may be mistaken but I think the idea is per @GG

1. Capital for fleet renewal
2. Involvement of (more) TANZANIANS in the airline (ownership)

Why?

1. Tanzania is HUGE. It is tough to move around the country by road so flying is popular (for those who can afford it).
2. Tanzanians are xenophobic about Kenyans. The dead Air Tanzania has been designated a National Airline & the same courtesy was not accorded to 'larger' PW. I do not know the current status.

As a National Airline, PW can access routes subject to bilateral agreements i.e. more destinations are opened.

Many Tanzanians DIRECTLY fly to Dubai, London, etc & they use BA, Emirates, etc but now PW can compete in this market. KQ will lose some traffic but OVERALL the gain is higher to the KQ/PW combo.

Another advantage is that if there is a delay on a KQ flight from Dubai-Nairobi, you can use PW from DBX-DSM-NBO instead of being 'stuck' in Dubai or being put on Emirates.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Mainat
#9 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2011 11:02:15 AM
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Joined: 11/21/2006
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Thought it was also related to reducing KQ capital requirement so that KQ doesn't have to do a rights issue soon.
Sehemu ndio nyumba
the deal
#10 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2011 3:00:32 PM
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Joined: 9/25/2009
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Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
PW can pass too..last year they made a los...
VituVingiSana
#11 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2011 4:13:08 PM
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Location: Nairobi
Mainat wrote:
Thought it was also related to reducing KQ capital requirement so that KQ doesn't have to do a rights issue soon.

How?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mwekez@ji
#12 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2011 6:06:09 PM
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Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121

.
mwekez@ji
#13 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2011 9:26:54 PM
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Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
the deal wrote:
PW can pass too..last year they made a los...


PW is holding an IPO immediately after displaying such a performance. It doesn't make sense at all
VituVingiSana
#14 Posted : Tuesday, September 06, 2011 11:09:01 AM
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Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
mwekez@ji wrote:
the deal wrote:
PW can pass too..last year they made a los...

PW is holding an IPO immediately after displaying such a performance. It doesn't make sense at all
Its now or never, the Tanzanians have dragged this on for 2 years.

Folks - Just general comments.

Sometimes firms growth is in the future not behind them. The overall profitability [not just one year] is what counts.

I learnt that with EABL which had a terrible year sometime in the 90s. It was a consolidation year with lots of problems. They did a Rights which Kenyans eschewed. The next 3 years for EABL were WONDERFUL... The Rights Price seemed a super discount at that point!

Of course, management matters...

A firm I wish I had invested in was (loss-making) Apple - just 4-5 years ago... Windows was still strong. People were dissing the iPod as an expensive toy. Competitors were coming out with their cheaper versions.

Then came the iPhone. Critics all over. Expensive. Who wants a touchscreen. Businesses will not buy iPhones. Blackberry will kill them.

The iPad. Even more critics. They criticized the price, the size, some called it a larger iPod. Today Apple sells more iPads (Tablets) than ALL other manufacturers COMBINED.

Even the Apple laptops are now in the top 3 sellers. Yes, even though more Windows computers are sold but Apple is a top brand vs Dell, HP, etc.

Precision (& KQ) are banking on the future of Africa. I see PW being used by KQ as its arm to service many smaller Southern Africa destinations while KQ concentrates on the larger cities in Central, West & North Africa.

The 787s will help open more Asian destinations. I have a feeling KQ will lease 1-2 787s to PW as well.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#15 Posted : Tuesday, September 06, 2011 2:07:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
the deal wrote:
PW can pass too..last year they made a los...

PW is holding an IPO immediately after displaying such a performance. It doesn't make sense at all
Its now or never, the Tanzanians have dragged this on for 2 years.

Folks - Just general comments.

Sometimes firms growth is in the future not behind them. The overall profitability [not just one year] is what counts.

I learnt that with EABL which had a terrible year sometime in the 90s. It was a consolidation year with lots of problems. They did a Rights which Kenyans eschewed. The next 3 years for EABL were WONDERFUL... The Rights Price seemed a super discount at that point!

Of course, management matters...

A firm I wish I had invested in was (loss-making) Apple - just 4-5 years ago... Windows was still strong. People were dissing the iPod as an expensive toy. Competitors were coming out with their cheaper versions.

Then came the iPhone. Critics all over. Expensive. Who wants a touchscreen. Businesses will not buy iPhones. Blackberry will kill them.

The iPad. Even more critics. They criticized the price, the size, some called it a larger iPod. Today Apple sells more iPads (Tablets) than ALL other manufacturers COMBINED.

Even the Apple laptops are now in the top 3 sellers. Yes, even though more Windows computers are sold but Apple is a top brand vs Dell, HP, etc.

Precision (& KQ) are banking on the future of Africa. I see PW being used by KQ as its arm to service many smaller Southern Africa destinations while KQ concentrates on the larger cities in Central, West & North Africa.

The 787s will help open more Asian destinations. I have a feeling KQ will lease 1-2 787s to PW as well.

The only reason KQ is keeping PW is its key role as a feeder for its long haul routes i.e London-->NBO--->Dar and Vice versa, thats why does give a heck about PW, well the Apple story might not apply to PW i.e Apple is computers/technology while PW is an airline..its always good to look at each case on its own
VituVingiSana
#16 Posted : Tuesday, September 06, 2011 2:32:23 PM
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Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
@thedeal - Apple was just an example on how a visionary (& smart) management can turn the fortunes of a loss-making firm no matter what sector! Look at RyanAir, AirAsia or SouthWest vs their competitors!

I believe PW has its own 'future' independent of KQ. It will remain a key plank of KQ's foray into Tanzania but PW is banking on the Tanzanians flying internally + internationally.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mwekez@ji
#17 Posted : Tuesday, September 06, 2011 6:10:18 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
@VVS, how would PW justify the KES 384M loss in year 2010/2011 from a profit of KES 158M in year 2009/2010. That's a whopping 343% drop!!! No wonder the regulatory body has been denying them the approvals. PW has a lot to do in order to prove that it can live up to the airline madness else Wanjikus will buy a monkey while Michael Shirima will be laughing all the way …
the deal
#18 Posted : Tuesday, September 06, 2011 9:33:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
@thedeal - Apple was just an example on how a visionary (& smart) management can turn the fortunes of a loss-making firm no matter what sector! Look at RyanAir, AirAsia or SouthWest vs their competitors!

I believe PW has its own 'future' independent of KQ. It will remain a key plank of KQ's foray into Tanzania but PW is banking on the Tanzanians flying internally + internationally.

I'm buying a certain bank in a certain African country i recently visited just because a certain company (which i respect) bought a majority stake in the business..the Company was subject to a hostile take over bid from ABSA/Barclays recently..now that company costs less than Eveready with revenues the size of DTB..yes its been loss making for the past 2 years!

Now back to PW, the later has alot of factors going against it:-

1. Competition-the competition on the local and domestic routes is fierce even KQ has/is taking a beating
2. Lack of a Commercial Hub-KQ has JKIA while Emirates has Dubai if you look at the most successful airlines, the precense of a strong hub has been a contributing factor unfortunatelly Dar has not lived at his billing
3. Lack of Government Support-for PW to expand into Africa it needs to leverage on the Tanzanian Governments diplomatic shuttle..KQ has been ggod at that.
4. KQ-for PW to be great..they have to enter into Africa where the yields arethe highest...that means going against KQ.
VituVingiSana
#19 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 12:45:30 AM
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Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
@the deal

1) What competition does it face in the local/domestic market? Please elaborate with examples & facts.
2) PW's (current) ambitions seems to be confined to Tanzania (a huge country) + some neighboring routes so not a hub airline.
3) See (2) above. Of course, I expect PW to leverage its presence to serve Tanzanians traveling on DIRECT flights to Dubai & London NOT as a hub but point to point travel.
4) LOL... Get serious. Let PW walk before it runs. KQ's startegy & PW seem different. PW is buying ATRs + 737s while KQ is buying Embraers + 787s though it would surprise me if KQ were to lease 1-2 to PW in 3-4 years.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Cde Monomotapa
#20 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 5:02:00 AM
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Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
RSE a wake up call for DSE.
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