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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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Cde Monomotapa
#601 Posted : Sunday, September 04, 2011 4:48:16 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Ali Baba wrote:
The BEARS are quite happy at the moment.If this trend continues its great and awesome.We(the bears) will accumulate a good chunk before the bulls arrive.And when(bulls) do finally arrive;we will slaughter them.Anybody for a T-bone steak!!!!Ha,ha,ha......
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sparkly
#602 Posted : Sunday, September 04, 2011 4:53:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Ali Baba wrote:
The BEARS are quite happy at the moment.If this trend continues its great and awesome.We(the bears) will accumulate a good chunk before the bulls arrive.And when(bulls) do finally arrive;we will slaughter them.Anybody for a T-bone steak!!!!Ha,ha,ha......

I want a piece of the bulls. I am sensing an approaching bottom or at least a temporary support. most stocks have been falling on thin volumes. capitulation has started in some counters like centum. buy buy buy... am taking a loan towards the end of the year.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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'user'
#603 Posted : Sunday, September 04, 2011 5:09:46 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 12/3/2010
Posts: 1,141
Location: Londokwe
the bear is here to stay may be till march 2013 after 2012 erections.with the ever rising inflation ;fuel;interest rates ;who has the money to bottom out the nse anyway


2012 is here.Kenya is Ours.Be Part of The Peace Keeping Mission To Protect Our Motherland.Say No To Violence and Tribal Hatred .If you can read this,wewe ni mtu amesoma, usifikirie kama mtu hajaenda shule .Ni Hayo Tu
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hisah
#604 Posted : Sunday, September 04, 2011 5:48:59 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Ah... now I see why PPT has let the NSE to slide without a strong bounce from the months of overselling. The brokers & CMA are throwing tomatoes at each other here...

NSE demutualization
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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sparkly
#605 Posted : Sunday, September 04, 2011 8:39:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
hisah wrote:
Ah... now I see why PPT has let the NSE to slide without a strong bounce from the months of overselling. The brokers & CMA are throwing tomatoes at each other here...

NSE demutualization

Forgive me, who is PPT?
Life is short. Live passionately.
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hisah
#606 Posted : Sunday, September 04, 2011 8:47:01 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
More statistics on NSE

- Sold for 12 straight weeks - even the bear trend in 2008/2009 can't beat that?!

- RSI is below 20 for the year reading 18 - bearish extreme levels... Coincidentally the RSI for elephant aka mpesa is above NSE.

The idea here is to look for stocks that are oversold more than the NSE. Those will bounce the most when the short term rebound comes.

And one of them is NBK with an RSI of 17. From the high of 46.25 in 21/02/2011 it has fallen more than 50% t0 23.50. but would you buy NBK @23.50 or NIC @31... The NBK H1 results must be really bad to tank this counter 50% down...

Interesting to note that SCB's RSI is almost catching up with NSE's...

Despite uchumi's nosedive, its RSI is yet to catch up with NSE. I'm waiting for this one at 6/- after selling immediately on re-listing. Got trapped during the infamous bankruptcy and I can hardly wait to revenge all those yrs of being stuck...

EAPC - this one is tempting, but the yen loan will kill it for a while.

Kenya RE - Interesting volume moves in Aug while the market was falling... I don't think it will tank below 7/- but we will see...

Centum... this one got dumped at 19 in late July. Very huge exit volume...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#607 Posted : Sunday, September 04, 2011 8:50:39 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
sparkly wrote:
hisah wrote:
Ah... now I see why PPT has let the NSE to slide without a strong bounce from the months of overselling. The brokers & CMA are throwing tomatoes at each other here...

NSE demutualization

Forgive me, who is PPT?

PPT - Plunge Protection Team as in those forces that don't like the market tanking despite Mr. Market wanting to tank as per the mood or the fundamentals...
PPT's work is to hold up the market for PR or perception purposes. It is a good thing they've let the NSE to slide. In Europe & US the markets were due to crash last year in Aug, but their PPT goosed them up using QE2 and look at where we are now... It is very hard to bully Mr. Market just like CBK has realized that USDKES will be above 90 come what may!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#608 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2011 10:45:59 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@Deal - I can see CFC is going back to that 40/- handle... Are you ready...

BBK has been taking it in the chin for 2 weeks now... prints a low of 12.15 today...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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lovely2010
#609 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2011 10:51:11 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/25/2010
Posts: 519
Location: nairobi
'user' wrote:
the bear is here to stay may be till march 2013 after 2012 erections.with the ever rising inflation ;fuel;interest rates ;who has the money to bottom out the nse anyway
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'user'
#610 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2011 10:56:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 12/3/2010
Posts: 1,141
Location: Londokwe
lovely2010 wrote:
'user' wrote:
the bear is here to stay may be till march 2013 after 2012 erections.with the ever rising inflation ;fuel;interest rates ;who has the money to bottom out the nse anyway





Pun intended , Am a clubsk county citizen after all.had Just strayed into the investment county .
2012 is here.Kenya is Ours.Be Part of The Peace Keeping Mission To Protect Our Motherland.Say No To Violence and Tribal Hatred .If you can read this,wewe ni mtu amesoma, usifikirie kama mtu hajaenda shule .Ni Hayo Tu
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the deal
#611 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2011 2:50:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
hisah wrote:
@Deal - I can see CFC is going back to that 40/- handle... Are you ready...

BBK has been taking it in the chin for 2 weeks now... prints a low of 12.15 today...

Yes @Hisah i have been offline since Thursday...i was in Lusaka...only to check today and see it at Sh44.25... i bet Sh35 will print...burgains all over...tell you what 2012 is the year to buy banks....smile
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hisah
#612 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2011 4:56:57 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Today is an interesting up day for funny stocks...

Tranny closed 7.8% up today. That someone that bought it at 60/- on introduction will need a lot of steely nerves.

Paka too was up 2%+ to close @1.85...

I wonder who are trading these 2 counters...

And finally uchumi closes sub 8/- Still waiting for this one at 6/- for my revenge to start in earnest after all those wasted years I got trapped. Yes, this one has an emotion scratch on me...

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Hunderwear
#613 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2011 5:07:16 PM
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Joined: 4/14/2011
Posts: 639
Nse 20share indx down 31.47 pts to close at 3366.36.The annihilation continues and its only monday!3k here we come by friday.
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Sober
#614 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2011 5:30:19 PM
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Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,604
Hunderwear wrote:
Nse 20share indx down 31.47 pts to close at 3366.36.The annihilation continues and its only monday!3k here we come by friday.


not friday, maybe at the end of the month.
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
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futurestrader
#615 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2011 5:49:50 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 8/26/2011
Posts: 16
word of advise - - - the more ocampo talk the more foreigners run off :) = Friday is also my bet - -the biggest dip will be when Jomo's son is on the stand
Quote:
Audaces Fortuna Iuvat
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youcan'tstopusnow
#616 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2011 5:56:17 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
3K now seems a very real possibility. Equity closes at 18.50 with a low of 18. KK still above 10 and saw a spike in volumes traded today
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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youcan'tstopusnow
#617 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2011 5:58:37 PM
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Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
futurestrader wrote:
the biggest dip will be when Jomo's son is on the stand

And what would happen if someone 'snitched' on 'the 2 principals?'
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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hisah
#618 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2011 6:11:14 PM
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Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
1st world has the debt bomb while we have ocampo bomb...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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youcan'tstopusnow
#619 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2011 6:31:51 PM
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Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
hisah wrote:
1st world has the debt bomb while we have ocampo bomb...

Their debt bomb may yet affect us also. DOUBLE TRAGEDY!
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Cde Monomotapa
#620 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2011 7:56:21 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
hisah wrote:
1st world has the debt bomb while we have ocampo bomb...

Their debt bomb may yet affect us also. DOUBLE TRAGEDY!

@ycsun kwani ur Kenyan bank stock bought CDS & CDO too? U have till Wednesday to sue. LoL!!
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