@Horton - KK uses the information they have (OTS + KK's imports) whereas ERC uses information from the entire industry (including private imports) thus ERC has more data.
In addition, who verifies the ERC numbers? I checked the website but the info ERC uses is not available. The formula is useless without the INPUT INFORMATION.
When KQ first reported hedges, the information provided was so scant, we could not figure out what was happening. So unless ERC provides ALL the info, how do we know their calculator is working?
Finally, I read KK's latest notice. It was an AVERAGE of 2.36 so if you look at ERC's numbers for Nairobi you find the AVERAGE tends towards +2.36 when you take into account Diesel +2.86 & Kerosene +2.86. It just happens more diesel is sold than petrol in Kenya.
BTW, what if the rise in price if you include the 'pricier' (vs Nairobi) Rift Valley + Nyanza?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett