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Realities of Forex Investment
hisah
#1241 Posted : Monday, August 29, 2011 7:26:28 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
USDJPY - The trap for yen longs has been laid - https://mninews.deutsche...new-tools-cope-high-yen

Meanwhile USDCNY set at record high by PBOC - 6.3883.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Ceinz
#1242 Posted : Monday, August 29, 2011 8:59:46 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/7/2009
Posts: 1,032
Location: Sea of Transquility
hisah wrote:
USDJPY - The trap for yen longs has been laid - https://mninews.deutsche...new-tools-cope-high-yen

Meanwhile USDCNY set at record high by PBOC - 6.3883.


Im with you on this one. This is a trap. An intervention is imminent.
“small step for man”
Ceinz
#1243 Posted : Monday, August 29, 2011 11:22:12 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/7/2009
Posts: 1,032
Location: Sea of Transquility

Currency Intervention not Working? Time for a New Approach!

http:....html
“small step for man”
hisah
#1244 Posted : Wednesday, August 31, 2011 6:29:18 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
AUDUSD & NZDUSD have retraced nicely smile Waiting to see them hit 76-78% retracement before shorting. If bernanke fires the printers for QE3, shorting will be dangerous & I'll be forced to go long... Which means the same happens to USDSGD & USDZAR.

QE3 would also rocket oil & gold again & other commodities. This is a big headache for the money printers esp with food inflation & global civil unrest. A rock & a hard place this one...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Cde Monomotapa
#1245 Posted : Wednesday, August 31, 2011 6:59:53 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
No more zero calorie dollars please!! Just basics; to expand we have to contract (austerity).
hisah
#1246 Posted : Friday, September 02, 2011 4:38:17 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
NFP disappoints and global stocks thus feel the cold. Euro equities have erased all week's gains and the US markets too look poised to end the week the same way.

Gold, despite the overstretched weekly technicals still wants to test $2000 before a meaningful correction ensues...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#1247 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2011 7:30:42 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Anybody noticed the EURUSD has been in consolidation since May 2011 despite panic central. This sideways action has created a large triangle for months.
EURUSD has quietly fallen 400pips for the week since topping 1.45s. At the current spot 1.41 it is testing the lower triangle line.
When 1.4050 breaks down, the breakout plunge will be huge. Caution trading this pair until the triangle is resolved - up or down. This will comfirm if its time for euro bears or bulls to take control for the month.

Me thinks it'll be a sizable plunge from the EURCHF moves, down almost 600 pips for the week.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
QW25081985
#1248 Posted : Monday, September 05, 2011 7:43:36 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/29/2011
Posts: 1,045
Location: Mtaani
hisah wrote:
Anybody noticed the EURUSD has been in consolidation since May 2011 despite panic central. This sideways action has created a large triangle for months.
EURUSD has quietly fallen 400pips for the week since topping 1.45s. At the current spot 1.41 it is testing the lower triangle line.
When 1.4050 breaks down, the breakout plunge will be huge. Caution trading this pair until the triangle is resolved - up or down. This will comfirm if its time for euro bears or bulls to take control for the month.

Me thinks it'll be a sizable plunge from the EURCHF moves, down almost 600 pips for the week.


the move that will come from there will be huge ...bt there's some heavy support on 200 ma on weekly chart.
am still short with + 100 pips so far.target is at 200 ma on daily chart.
it seems we are going to have a slow monday today coz of bank holiday in US
dave.kim
#1249 Posted : Tuesday, September 06, 2011 11:37:43 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/25/2010
Posts: 176
http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news/
SNB sets minimum exchange rate at 1.20 EURO and result was 1000+ pip rally within minutes!!!
Rule No.1 is never lose money. Rule No.2 is never forget rule number one
QW25081985
#1250 Posted : Tuesday, September 06, 2011 1:36:10 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/29/2011
Posts: 1,045
Location: Mtaani
Gbp/chf . wow !!!!! 1200 pips . damn !!!!!!!!!!!!
dave.kim
#1251 Posted : Tuesday, September 06, 2011 2:11:31 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/25/2010
Posts: 176
i caught 178 pips.anyone else profit from that rally?
Rule No.1 is never lose money. Rule No.2 is never forget rule number one
QW25081985
#1252 Posted : Tuesday, September 06, 2011 2:21:29 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/29/2011
Posts: 1,045
Location: Mtaani
the easiest trade right now is to buy eur/chf and put a stop at below 1.2000 , lol
hisah
#1253 Posted : Tuesday, September 06, 2011 2:55:15 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
EURCHF up 1big figure for the day as well as GBPCHF!!!

Almost all swissie cross up 9% for the day.

As you are aware SNB has decided to do what I have been expecting them to do since last month. They've brought on the battle field a tomahawk launcher after spending all their bazooka ammo... CHF bulls time to run away. CHF longs will get a huge squeeze here.

Will their resolve to hold EURCHF above 1.20 sustain before the end of the year? SNB has had a number of bazooka CHF shots since 2009, there was 1.50 then 1.30 and now 1.20... The former two floors were emphatically broken down by Mr. Market. So will 1.20 survive.

For now, CHF carry trade is confirmed. AUD, NZD, GBP will be most profitable as the excessive months of overselling gets reset.

Gold bulls - caution!

Happy trading...

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Cde Monomotapa
#1254 Posted : Tuesday, September 06, 2011 3:57:42 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Let some of these guys buy up the KES as we have real economic projects going on here Laughing out loudly we'll even raise the CBR mid-September 50-100 basis pts. to spice it up Laughing out loudly
hisah
#1255 Posted : Tuesday, September 06, 2011 4:01:10 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@Cde- our CBR is already higher than the G10 currencies interest rates!?

Btw with the USDCHF having tested 0.8550, this now opens up the possibility of turning this cross bullish for months to come aiming 0.9300 before parity is tested.

I'm snooping on AUDCHF, NZDCHF, GBPCHF and CADCHF to see how to play them in coming months.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Cde Monomotapa
#1256 Posted : Tuesday, September 06, 2011 4:06:48 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
All the best boss as I bet that a sudden realization is on its way, slowly but fast, that SSA is less riskier (by far) than the West & the East (net-exporters) as well. Laughing out loudly
hisah
#1257 Posted : Tuesday, September 06, 2011 6:51:22 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
EURUSD - below 1.4050... The triangle has broken and it has test a low of 1.3970. If it closes below 1.3940 today, downside risks will be confirmed...

With SNB putting the ante up and shouting to all the EURCHF cross bears that a "DNT - don't touch - floor will be maintained at 1.20, at least if EMU goes kaboom with defaults, one can sell those crappy euros to SNB...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Ceinz
#1258 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 7:28:04 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/7/2009
Posts: 1,032
Location: Sea of Transquility
hisah wrote:

Gold bulls - caution!



Thanks for the warning. Xau back to $1800. Lets wait and see whether it will find support here, or go down to $1700. You had earlier on hinted on $1500 to $1600, but I think these are unlikely.

Happy trading.
“small step for man”
hisah
#1259 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 9:05:09 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Ceinz wrote:
hisah wrote:

Gold bulls - caution!



Thanks for the warning. Xau back to $1800. Lets wait and see whether it will find support here, or go down to $1700. You had earlier on hinted on $1500 to $1600, but I think these are unlikely.

Happy trading.

On the daily chart, I think the 1920 zone confirms a double top.
The weekly chart is forming a dark cloud candlestick formation - bearish signal. Interesting to note on the monthly chart that the monthly candlestick is forming a gravestone pattern. Eh, if confirmed by end of month, time to sell gold for some weeks...?!

But I still expect this thing to top above $2000 due to the debt storms still lurking around esp from November onwards...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Ceinz
#1260 Posted : Wednesday, September 07, 2011 9:37:29 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/7/2009
Posts: 1,032
Location: Sea of Transquility
hisah wrote:


On the daily chart, I think the 1920 zone confirms a double top.
The weekly chart is forming a dark cloud candlestick formation - bearish signal. Interesting to note on the monthly chart that the monthly candlestick is forming a gravestone pattern. Eh, if confirmed by end of month, time to sell gold for some weeks...?!

But I still expect this thing to top above $2000 due to the debt storms still lurking around esp from November onwards...


Insightful. Gratias.
“small step for man”
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