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Family Bank is the Sh30 Price Tag Justifiable?
the deal
#1 Posted : Tuesday, August 30, 2011 4:52:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Family Bank is a Kenyan Lender which initially started out as a building society in 1984, Family Bank was converted into a fully-fledged commercial bank on 1st May 2007 and today boosts an asset base of more than Sh20 Billion, has more than 600,000 customer’s, an over Sh11 Billion loan book, 63 branches country wide and over 1000 employees. Family Bank plans to list by way of introduction on 31st of October 2011 on the financial segment of the Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE), the company is more likely to list at an introductory price of Sh30 valuing the bank at Sh7.3 Billion, the stock currently has 242 Million shares. AfricInvest a Mauritius based private equity (PE) firm bought a 25% stake in Family bank worth Sh1.2 Billion, implying that the private equity firm paid Sh19.8 a share to get the 60.5 Million shares which are equivalent to 25% of Family Bank.

Read more http://www.contrarianinv...prehensive-analysis.html
Mainat
#2 Posted : Wednesday, August 31, 2011 12:06:45 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Deal-good piece. Your game is getting sharper. AfricInvest holds 22%. Imho, its worth around Ksh16. On a good day. If HFCK was priced ksh16, I'd buy over FamBank. Shoddily run and unambitous.
Sehemu ndio nyumba
earthvoice
#3 Posted : Wednesday, August 31, 2011 12:47:47 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/29/2011
Posts: 257
Mainat wrote:
@the deal - good piece. Your game is getting sharper.

Hear! Hear! Applause Applause
"All intelligent investing is value investing -- acquiring more than you are paying for. You must value the business in order to value the stock." - Charlie Munger.
the deal
#4 Posted : Wednesday, August 31, 2011 10:30:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
earthvoice wrote:
Mainat wrote:
@the deal - good piece. Your game is getting sharper.

Hear! Hear! Applause Applause

Thanks guyssmile
underweight
#5 Posted : Wednesday, August 31, 2011 11:07:44 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/25/2009
Posts: 184
Location: For now El-Fashier - Darfur
I've been trying to exit over the counter at that price of 30 but in vain. Hope to exit the 1st day it lists at any price above 24 and buy back as soon as it finds its correct price. Obviously downwards! We can take a bet on this. Rem the right issue wasn't taken fully up!
"A bad decision made now is beta that a good one made later!!"
stocksmaster
#6 Posted : Wednesday, August 31, 2011 12:55:30 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 450
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
Mainat wrote:
Deal-good piece. Your game is getting sharper. AfricInvest holds 22%. Imho, its worth around Ksh16. On a good day. If HFCK was priced ksh16, I'd buy over FamBank. Shoddily run and unambitous.


NIC Bank which i would choose over Family bank is trading at a trailing P/E of 6.5.......why would i pay three times more (P/E of 18) for Family Bank?

It would be more advisable for the Bank not to list until the NSE Financial sector stock prices improve. The current OTC prices seem more favourable to its shareholders than what they will get on listing......A sub Ksh 20 price will surely prevail.

I have a feeling that after the Britak shares hit the market, the ensuing price massacre will make Family Bank think twice!

Happy Hunting
Mainat
#7 Posted : Wednesday, August 31, 2011 2:15:06 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
The rationale for the IPO and its timing. Something that I never used to consider as much, but key this year. Doing an IPO this yr implies the anchor shareholders are desperate to get out.
Sehemu ndio nyumba
stocksmaster
#8 Posted : Wednesday, August 31, 2011 3:49:13 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 450
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
Mainat wrote:
The rationale for the IPO and its timing. Something that I never used to consider as much, but key this year. Doing an IPO this yr implies the anchor shareholders are desperate to get out.


My thoughts exactly......why is everyone in a hurry to exit positions that they have held for years at the worst possible time? Doesn't make sense at all?

Happy hunting....
VituVingiSana
#9 Posted : Wednesday, August 31, 2011 5:01:43 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
Not sure about FB but most 'new' listings have some sort of restriction on sales by 'insiders'...

Many investment funds prefer 'listed' firms too...

At 30/-... I have many more choices!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Mainat
#10 Posted : Thursday, September 01, 2011 10:08:26 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Vitu-they are listing by introduction. The trend now is that anchor shareholders can sell upto 50% of holdings within the first two years and the rest thereafter
Sehemu ndio nyumba
kenyainvestor
#11 Posted : Thursday, September 01, 2011 12:44:09 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/12/2011
Posts: 194
If it is banks you are interested in, there is a host of better opportunities than Family Bank at 30 bob. Usual pre-listing rally at play here...
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kangi
#12 Posted : Thursday, September 01, 2011 6:07:25 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/23/2009
Posts: 526
stocksmaster wrote:
Mainat wrote:
The rationale for the IPO and its timing. Something that I never used to consider as much, but key this year. Doing an IPO this yr implies the anchor shareholders are desperate to get out.


My thoughts exactly......why is everyone in a hurry to exit positions that they have held for years at the worst possible time? Doesn't make sense at all?

Happy hunting....

d'oh! Sad d'oh! Sad Pray
BE Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Accept no one's definition of your life; define your life.
Kenyan Oracle
#13 Posted : Friday, September 02, 2011 11:45:10 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 254
stocksmaster wrote:
Mainat wrote:
The rationale for the IPO and its timing. Something that I never used to consider as much, but key this year. Doing an IPO this yr implies the anchor shareholders are desperate to get out.


My thoughts exactly......why is everyone in a hurry to exit positions that they have held for years at the worst possible time? Doesn't make sense at all?

Happy hunting....


I've been shouting myself hoarse, why the rush by Tranny, Britak & Family to list before year end. As per history of 2007 the Wanjiku's we made fools of. Remember Kenya Re IPO, Mumias split? My opinion is that THIS IS A REPEAT PERFORMANCE only different companies, same cast. Food for Thoughts: Is Dyer & Blair featuring anywhere?
You lose money chasing women, but you never lose women chasing money - NAS
VituVingiSana
#14 Posted : Friday, September 02, 2011 6:20:37 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
No idea why the rush to go public but FB is NOT raising cash so the 30/- in merely indicative... Just wait for it to fall in price as folks sell out! I would rather buy Equity at 20/- than FB at 30/-
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Hunderwear
#15 Posted : Saturday, September 03, 2011 5:01:58 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/14/2011
Posts: 639
This thread sends shivers down my spine.Got a sizable amount and I have been dreaming big about them.I will look beyond the bear and wait.Anyway the price wil surely go past 30 given they are with few hands.
VituVingiSana
#16 Posted : Saturday, September 03, 2011 9:54:20 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
Hunderwear wrote:
This thread sends shivers down my spine.Got a sizable amount and I have been dreaming big about them.I will look beyond the bear and wait.Anyway the price wil surely go past 30 given they are with few hands.

Good luck... but why would someone want FB at 30/- vs Equity at 20/-?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
gatoho
#17 Posted : Saturday, September 03, 2011 10:10:14 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/1/2010
Posts: 518
Location: kandara, Murang'a
VituVingiSana wrote:
Hunderwear wrote:
This thread sends shivers down my spine.Got a sizable amount and I have been dreaming big about them.I will look beyond the bear and wait.Anyway the price wil surely go past 30 given they are with few hands.

Good luck... but why would someone want FB at 30/- vs Equity at 20/-?





Or Muramati @ 10. My next big thing
Foresight..
VituVingiSana
#18 Posted : Saturday, September 03, 2011 10:19:38 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
gatoho wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Hunderwear wrote:
This thread sends shivers down my spine.Got a sizable amount and I have been dreaming big about them.I will look beyond the bear and wait.Anyway the price wil surely go past 30 given they are with few hands.

Good luck... but why would someone want FB at 30/- vs Equity at 20/-?

Or Muramati @ 10. My next big thing
I was amazed to see muramati all over the place in Muranga! I had no idea how extensive their network was until then...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
QW25081985
#19 Posted : Saturday, September 03, 2011 10:33:03 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/29/2011
Posts: 1,045
Location: Mtaani
[quote=the deal]Family Bank is a Kenyan Lender which initially started out as a building society in 1984, Family Bank was converted into a fully-fledged commercial bank on 1st May 2007 and today boosts an asset base of more than Sh20 Billion, has more than 600,000 customer’s, an over Sh11 Billion loan book, 63 branches country wide and over 1000 employees. Family Bank plans to list by way of introduction on 31st of October 2011 on the financial segment of the Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE), the company is more likely to list at an introductory price of Sh30 valuing the bank at Sh7.3 Billion, the stock currently has 242 Million shares. AfricInvest a Mauritius based private equity (PE) firm bought a 25% stake in Family bank worth Sh1.2 Billion, implying that the private equity firm paid Sh19.8 a share to get the 60.5 Million shares which are equivalent to 25% of Family Bank.

Read more http://www.contrarianinv...rehensive-analysis.html[/quote]


Guys arent kiddin when they call you Mr.Media man , lol . u tryin to hype FB up ???? i hope guys learnt from britak ..
Hunderwear
#20 Posted : Sunday, September 04, 2011 7:30:40 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/14/2011
Posts: 639
[quote=the deal]Family Bank is a Kenyan Lender which initially started out as a building society in 1984, Family Bank was converted into a fully-fledged commercial bank on 1st May 2007 and today boosts an asset base of more than Sh20 Billion, has more than 600,000 customer’s, an over Sh11 Billion loan book, 63 branches country wide and over 1000 employees. Family Bank plans to list by way of introduction on 31st of October 2011 on the financial segment of the Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE), the company is more likely to list at an introductory price of Sh30 valuing the bank at Sh7.3 Billion, the stock currently has 242 Million shares. AfricInvest a Mauritius based private equity (PE) firm bought a 25% stake in Family bank worth Sh1.2 Billion, implying that the private equity firm paid Sh19.8 a share to get the 60.5 Million shares which are equivalent to 25% of Family Bank.

Read more http://www.contrarianinv...rehensive-analysis.html[/quote]
>interestingly Africinvst paid only 2 bob per share for their 54 mil shares!
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