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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Cde Monomotapa
#521 Posted : Monday, August 29, 2011 5:21:42 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
incognito wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
@incognito..Soon you'l come to find it profitable to do the opposite of what QW says Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly


Which is?

What is contained in this thread Laughing out loudly
Aguytrying
#522 Posted : Monday, August 29, 2011 6:34:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Now people are talking about 2500!!! what. got a glimpse of my portfolio today(since last month) and almost fainted. though not that bad, i expected worse than 12%. This market can sure make an investor look dim. You buy a stock thinking its hit rock bottom only for it to continue falling. Scan today touched 40.75! equity 19.20!! Barclays 12.90. un-frakking believable.often of late when going through the daily prices i gasp in shock.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Cde Monomotapa
#523 Posted : Monday, August 29, 2011 7:02:25 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
@aguy..since the NSE isn't responding to its own +ve economic fundamentals but fixated on matters abroad (tis good to b ambitious but not unreasonably) then I figure we swiftly move down technically to 2,500pts get it over with and bounce back #period#
holycow
#524 Posted : Monday, August 29, 2011 7:46:56 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/11/2006
Posts: 972
Location: Home
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
@aguy..since the NSE isn't responding to its own +ve economic fundamentals but fixated on matters abroad (tis good to b ambitious but not unreasonably) then I figure we swiftly move down technically to 2,500pts get it over with and bounce back #period#


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
CDE for CMA/NSE Chairman.
Cde Monomotapa
#525 Posted : Monday, August 29, 2011 7:58:29 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
holycow wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
@aguy..since the NSE isn't responding to its own +ve economic fundamentals but fixated on matters abroad (tis good to b ambitious but not unreasonably) then I figure we swiftly move down technically to 2, 500pts get it over with and bounce back #period#


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
CDE for CMA/NSE Chairman.

Gracias... I am honored smile
youcan'tstopusnow
#526 Posted : Monday, August 29, 2011 8:03:21 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Cde Monomotapa finally admits that markets the world over are connected *PROUD*
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
Cde Monomotapa
#527 Posted : Monday, August 29, 2011 8:23:24 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Cde Monomotapa finally admits that markets the world over are connected *PROUD*

Hey! I've been misquoted Laughing out loudly coz I believe if we weaned ourselves off relying on foreign investors to drive our markets yet we have our own potential domestic market makers like public & private pension and investment funds i.e NSSF, ICEA, Insurance Co.s, Investment Groups e.t.c exposes ignorance of our domestic economic realities. Our companies report superior returns and yet we fail to co-relate it through the NSE as if our companies operate on Mars and yet it is us fueling at KK, shopping at Uchumi, banking at KCB, adding Mumias sugar to our tea every so often. That's how these companies make money to pay us dividends. Foreign investors don't even spend a dime in our real economy!!
Cde Monomotapa
#528 Posted : Monday, August 29, 2011 8:37:18 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
I admit that we have challenges domestically like cyclical food inflation, high cost energy, a weak shilling e.t.c BUT we are still at a net positive economically! We don't have a soveriegn debt crisis here as our debt to GDP is healthy @53%* unlike in the West where they are over leveraged at both personal & national level. Our Govt.spending (national budget) is growing with a lot going into development and infrastructure UNLIKE the West who are implementing austerity measures by cutting public spending. SO when I find Kenyan investors overly fixated on happenings abroad it almost brings me to tears. If it wasn't for the bargains presented to me courtesy of such dislocations with economic reality...i'd probably be cardiac by now Laughing out loudly
the deal
#529 Posted : Monday, August 29, 2011 8:58:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Well my thinking is, instead of fasting, engaging in prayers or spending endless hours analyzing charts why don't you monitor the performance of a few stocks which might provide key leads to where the market is headed, i call such stocks bell-weathers. The term bell-weather was initially used to describe a sheep which leads a flock, the sheep usually a castrated Ram would have a bell to attract other sheep's thus the sheep determined where others would go.

Read more here http://www.contrarianinv...the-bellweathers.htmlsmile
youcan'tstopusnow
#530 Posted : Monday, August 29, 2011 9:35:30 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
They say even the CRAP rises with the tide...
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
QW25081985
#531 Posted : Monday, August 29, 2011 9:38:38 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/29/2011
Posts: 1,045
Location: Mtaani
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
They say even the CRAP rises with the tide...


are you trying to call access kenya crap !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! wewew ....
Cde Monomotapa
#532 Posted : Monday, August 29, 2011 9:56:26 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
QW25081985 wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
They say even the CRAP rises with the tide...


are you trying to call access kenya crap !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! wewew ....

Kwani u keep reincarnating?? What's up u r rank "hello" again??
youcan'tstopusnow
#533 Posted : Monday, August 29, 2011 10:27:28 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
QW25081985 wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
They say even the CRAP rises with the tide...


are you trying to call access kenya crap !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! wewew ....

Kwani u keep reincarnating?? What's up u r rank "hello" again??

Haven't you ever heard of lost twin brother? This QW managed to find the others (QW and qw)
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
Equator
#534 Posted : Monday, August 29, 2011 10:28:15 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 5/24/2011
Posts: 18
I am praying the index continues in its downward trend. I see interesting times ahead for those who will timely pick highly discouted counters.I remember the meteoric rise of the index as from year 2003 and how millionaires were made. This could be a period when millionaires are being "formed".
Well, constraint is always cash otherwise it is the best time to start sinking millions.

erifloss
#535 Posted : Monday, August 29, 2011 10:43:09 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Cde Monomotapa finally admits that markets the world over are connected *PROUD*

Hey! I've been misquoted Laughing out loudly coz I believe if we weaned ourselves off relying on foreign investors to drive our markets yet we have our own potential domestic market makers like public & private pension and investment funds i.e NSSF, ICEA, Insurance Co.s, Investment Groups e.t.c exposes ignorance of our domestic economic realities. Our companies report superior returns and yet we fail to co-relate it through the NSE as if our companies operate on Mars and yet it is us fueling at KK, shopping at Uchumi, banking at KCB, adding Mumias sugar to our tea every so often. That's how these companies make money to pay us dividends. Foreign investors don't even spend a dime in our real economy!!

@Cde, the paradox is that efficiency & the banking system are to blame for the interconnectivity. When transferring USD to lets say Zambia, SA or wherever, the routing bank will be JP Morgan or another American settling bank house or when transferring Euros the routing bank might be deustche bank etc. World reserve currency is the other culprit due to its volatility, the world credit markets & cheap debt. KCB, Equity etc will have to have enough USD to sell or lend to Mumias to be able to purchase a yen denominated grinder from Japan or a Euro denominated one from Italy etc. The world markets whether we like it or not are interconnected in more ways than one coz we can never produce every good required or deliver all the services required, there'll always be a shortfall that will always have to be filled by an outsider.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
QW25081985
#536 Posted : Monday, August 29, 2011 10:44:28 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/29/2011
Posts: 1,045
Location: Mtaani
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
QW25081985 wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
They say even the CRAP rises with the tide...


are you trying to call access kenya crap !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! wewew ....

Kwani u keep reincarnating?? What's up u r rank "hello" again??

Haven't you ever heard of lost twin brother? This QW managed to find the others (QW and qw)

hisah
#537 Posted : Monday, August 29, 2011 10:51:25 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
This old farmer thinks @3,000 points then we will surely rapidly descend to 2,500. The sell off will be on wider spreads, thinner volumes. Unless bank Q3 results are good, 2,500 will be here in November.

Banks Q1 came & went as well as Q2 aka H1. Any change... If they show haircuts which I expect from Q3 onwards, expect more selling of bank stocks.

And the headline article of tomorrows biz daily is preparing more pigs for the slaughter... Stay tuned...

3600 was the spillway, 3500 was the flood gate. Bado floods... Relax & go with the down flow.

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#538 Posted : Monday, August 29, 2011 10:59:08 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
NSE 3439. Sub 3400 this week.
BBK sub 13 @12.90. SCB still clinging but sub 200 is coming.
Centum - sliding. Sub 17 soon.
Scangrp is getting some hard kicking since last week.
MSC - still on the bounce. 7/- is a barrier to contend with.
Mpesa - refusing to tank sub 3. Interesting...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Cde Monomotapa
#539 Posted : Monday, August 29, 2011 11:29:39 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
erifloss wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Cde Monomotapa finally admits that markets the world over are connected *PROUD*

Hey! I've been misquoted Laughing out loudly coz I believe if we weaned ourselves off relying on foreign investors to drive our markets yet we have our own potential domestic market makers like public & private pension and investment funds i.e NSSF, ICEA, Insurance Co.s, Investment Groups e.t.c exposes ignorance of our domestic economic realities. Our companies report superior returns and yet we fail to co-relate it through the NSE as if our companies operate on Mars and yet it is us fueling at KK, shopping at Uchumi, banking at KCB, adding Mumias sugar to our tea every so often. That's how these companies make money to pay us dividends. Foreign investors don't even spend a dime in our real economy!!

@Cde, the paradox is that efficiency & the banking system are to blame for the interconnectivity. When transferring USD to lets say Zambia, SA or wherever, the routing bank will be JP Morgan or another American settling bank house or when transferring Euros the routing bank might be deustche bank etc. World reserve currency is the other culprit due to its volatility, the world credit markets & cheap debt. KCB, Equity etc will have to have enough USD to sell or lend to Mumias to be able to purchase a yen denominated grinder from Japan or a Euro denominated one from Italy etc. The world markets whether we like it or not are interconnected in more ways than one coz we can never produce every good required or deliver all the services required, there'll always be a shortfall that will always have to be filled by an outsider.

My reference was to the NSE which is denominated KES. These Funds deduct funds from working class pay chqs.every month. What do they do with it? Aren't the Fund Managers sighting bargains? That's why I invest for myself..I find those "professionals" un-professional. Just busy drinking at Sheeben & Gazebo.
kaifastus
#540 Posted : Tuesday, August 30, 2011 10:46:52 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2011
Posts: 207
Location: humu humu
nse is competing with real estate for capital .high inflation nse will lose. when 'evryone' has a 50by100 they wish 2 dispose of at a primium,prices will correct.i cant predict market bottom.real estate is king nowremember the mitumba salon,wave,deci,ipos,and now real estate.pple made cash others lost.am happi with real estate coz of the linkagrs it has with other sectors. ps even the labor mkt follox similar cycles
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