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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
youcan'tstopusnow
#461 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 9:29:51 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
@sober that's the classic "market bargain turns premium" smile

The old switch-a-roo we used to call itsmile
Will the Safcom 300 million demand ever return?
hisah, what's your target entry price for Safaricom. Is this a long term play for you? I ask as M-PESA not yet close to being as big as it can be and I've never known to you go long on anythingsmile
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
anika66
#462 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 9:49:57 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/25/2010
Posts: 158
hisah wrote:
Ak below 6/- @Qw - That 5.55 order will get filled.

Mpesa sub 3/- by tomorrow. Cheapest bank in the world & still getting cheap smile

KCB below 20/-

NSE @3444. Bargains galore continues with market capitalization now @ 950B well below 1.2T. Volume still anaemic thus creating slide fireworks.

Steel nerves will be required as ulcers central squeezes out weak hands.

A 'tungependa serikali itusaidie' kodak moment...

Speculators are yet to get killed. Stay tuned as the fat tail gets fatter smile



Got small amount of KCB today at 19 something plus safcom too. Next week i get more at lower prices and week after that and week after that. Then I will pick on another loser stock and walk with it for the next three weeks until i have filled all my target quotas for each of these stocks. How come the big timers like EABL, JUBILEE, STANCHAT, etc are not comind down as fast as these 'popular common stocks?' I want to get a piece of the blue chip cakes!
Keeping it all in the family
youcan'tstopusnow
#463 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 10:01:54 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Muthawamunene wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
But KCB @15-16...crack! goes the piggy bank Laughing out loudly

can it realy get thea?

Sad
But at that price I bet you'll be spoilt for choice, not only KCB. But tamaa iliua fisi. At 15, one is likely to pose, KCB at 12-13... Before you know, the 'bus' has left
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
QW25071985
#464 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 10:05:30 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/25/2011
Posts: 946
WOW !!!! now why did i buy a.k at 6 bob ...nkt nkt. total waste of money . when the index broke the 3500 mark it really opened up a can of worms ..we will see if i can squeeze a buy order at 3.00
can safcom hit 1/= lol.
Cde Monomotapa
#465 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 10:09:52 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Muthawamunene wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
But KCB @15-16...crack! goes the piggy bank Laughing out loudly

can it realy get thea?

Well, the mkt is on a free fall. Let me have the liberty to bet against my darlings then buy them.
holycow
#466 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 10:11:26 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/11/2006
Posts: 972
Location: Home
QW25071985 wrote:
WOW !!!! now why did i buy a.k at 6 bob ...nkt nkt. total waste of money . when the index broke the 3500 mark it really opened up a can of worms ..we will see if i can squeeze a buy order at 3.00
can safcom hit 1/= lol.


The Gospel according to Young

young wrote:
NO 49


When you buy a stock and the next day the price falls by a certain percentage, that should not be the reason you should stop investing in stocks.

Cde Monomotapa
#467 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 10:17:28 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
KCB @15-16 with my target of a div of 1.5-1.75/share will be more than great for me.
Muthawamunene
#468 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 10:22:32 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 264
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Muthawamunene wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
But KCB @15-16...crack! goes the piggy bank Laughing out loudly

can it realy get thea?

Well, the mkt is on a free fall. Let me have the liberty to bet against my darlings then buy them.

like all holes (i know some eye brows hve been raised here), this one too must have an end. its not like we have unlimitted funds waiting to be thrown onto the nse. Price chacing is a thing i swore never to do again.
mlennyma
#469 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 10:28:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
And who are this sellers who never get tired of selling?
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Cde Monomotapa
#470 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 10:33:05 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
With my Av.of 20.5 i'm good but to prompt any buy action KCB has to go down further by atleast 25%...then I will respond with a buy OTW the price can do what it wants.
Muthawamunene
#471 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 10:37:27 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 264
Location: Nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
And who are this sellers who never get tired of selling?

if you look at the number of shares being sold, what these people call volumes, you will see that they are small and sometimes scanty. My guess would be some Akinyi, Nekesa, Kimunto, Cheptoo, ....... Wanjiku ameonewa sana.
underweight
#472 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 10:37:28 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/25/2009
Posts: 184
Location: For now El-Fashier - Darfur
Just look at the volumes as the price goes down. When the price stabilizes for a period of time say between a week and a months time and volumes starts increasing gradually then know we have almost bottomed up.
"A bad decision made now is beta that a good one made later!!"
Cde Monomotapa
#473 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 10:57:57 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Staff lay offs could free up at least 0.5cts (1.5B) in addition to Subsidiaries simply breaking even another 0.65cts (2B) in FY2011. KCB is just too much of a bargain.
hisah
#474 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 11:00:27 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
@sober that's the classic "market bargain turns premium" smile

The old switch-a-roo we used to call itsmile
Will the Safcom 300 million demand ever return?
hisah, what's your target entry price for Safaricom. Is this a long term play for you? I ask as M-PESA not yet close to being as big as it can be and I've never known to you go long on anythingsmile

@youcant, I tried unga last yr, but didnt go as expected as per global food rally last yr & sold at 12. Now it is sub 9/-. Got MSC, scom & member in 2009 bloodbath & sold out last yr in Aug as referendum reached fever pitch. Bad sign that was plus absent volume to support the hype. Btw @guru almost fried me for real for stating so (lack of volumes) back in Oct/Nov 2010. I'll try & fish out that thread.

Sub 3 is good for mpesa which has been sold since Aug 2010 due to 3/- or 1/- tariff price wars. The 1yr selling pessimism is good value. When it fell to 2.60 in 2009 was turnover above Ksh 70B? Was mpesa a fad then? Cheap bank & bluechip this.
But in 2009 was more focussed on HSI & ASX200 & Aussie dollar & gold stocks.
The excessive selling was too sweet to ignore.
KCB, Equity & many other bluechips still getting cheap with healthier revenues. Though the illiquid ones (bluechips) are not being sold as their mature investors have seen a lot of blood for years & are not easily pushed to sell cheap.

Another life time chance for guys to become millionaires when the bull returns...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
kaifastus
#475 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 11:33:22 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2011
Posts: 207
Location: humu humu
Global stocks are falling again. Nse is expected to dip. It seems evr 1 is waiting 4bargaiins..thats not gud..
underweight
#476 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 11:44:56 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/25/2009
Posts: 184
Location: For now El-Fashier - Darfur
I exited KPLC at 19.75 bought at 17.00 on Tuesday thinking had made a wrong decision but am just laughing as I watch it slide back probably past that level then buy back. Seems like we are not yet to bottoming out. Wait till past 21st Sep wen panic button will be fully pressed.




Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you
"A bad decision made now is beta that a good one made later!!"
hisah
#477 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2011 4:30:58 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Btw those stocks that are below their 2009 surrender lows are the most bearish. When the recovery returns they will rally hard, but will not be good quality since they're regarded worse than in 2009 panic central.

@youcant - I forgot to mention that for mpesa stock it is long term, but that term is not fit for a trader strategy. I prefer using the term accumulation as the recovery builds up. Once the uptrend gets broken, I quit and move to something else. This is why I monitor the index to confirm whether the uptrend trendline is being supportive. If it breaks, I become defensive (sell those stocks that also breakdown). But this year the USDKES was the outlier. Never seen such a currency breakdown without a war or official devaluation by a CB.
And its across EA, which is fishy - more like a currency attack akin to one Soros moves or bond vigilantes that hunt for defaulting money instruments... Btw all should read & understand what chapter 467 of laws of kenya states under the IMF Act - stinks... If I'm ever in a position to alter laws, this would go straight to the dustbin. Yes, I dislike those bretton woods with their economical aid gimmicks & one day when the world if fully awake, they'll be shutdown.

The only issue with the trader strategy is when there is a bargain galore, the greed of getting any stock is difficult to deal with smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
guru267
#478 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2011 10:02:50 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
anika66 wrote:
How come the big timers like EABL, JUBILEE, STANCHAT, etc are not comind down as fast as these 'popular common stocks?' I want to get a piece of the blue chip cakes!


In Jubilee's case its a tight community of only 6,000 shareholders (most are kenyan asians) scattered all over EA who will not be willing to sell JUB below a certain level..

Would you sell your house, car, business just because of the jitters in Europe and US?? So why then sell your stock??
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
QW25071985
#479 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2011 10:15:08 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/25/2011
Posts: 946
hisah wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
@sober that's the classic "market bargain turns premium" smile

The old switch-a-roo we used to call itsmile
Will the Safcom 300 million demand ever return?
hisah, what's your target entry price for Safaricom. Is this a long term play for you? I ask as M-PESA not yet close to being as big as it can be and I've never known to you go long on anythingsmile

@youcant, I tried unga last yr, but didnt go as expected as per global food rally last yr & sold at 12. Now it is sub 9/-. Got MSC, scom & member in 2009 bloodbath & sold out last yr in Aug as referendum reached fever pitch. Bad sign that was plus absent volume to support the hype. Btw @guru almost fried me for real for stating so (lack of volumes) back in Oct/Nov 2010. I'll try & fish out that thread.

Sub 3 is good for mpesa which has been sold since Aug 2010 due to 3/- or 1/- tariff price wars. The 1yr selling pessimism is good value. When it fell to 2.60 in 2009 was turnover above Ksh 70B? Was mpesa a fad then? Cheap bank & bluechip this.
But in 2009 was more focussed on HSI & ASX200 & Aussie dollar & gold stocks.
The excessive selling was too sweet to ignore.
KCB, Equity & many other bluechips still getting cheap with healthier revenues. Though the illiquid ones (bluechips) are not being sold as their mature investors have seen a lot of blood for years & are not easily pushed to sell cheap.

Another life time chance for guys to become millionaires when the bull returns...



i cannt agree anymore...
youcan'tstopusnow
#480 Posted : Friday, August 26, 2011 2:38:07 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
guru267 wrote:
anika66 wrote:
How come the big timers like EABL, JUBILEE, STANCHAT, etc are not comind down as fast as these 'popular common stocks?' I want to get a piece of the blue chip cakes!


In Jubilee's case its a tight community of only 6,000 shareholders (most are kenyan asians) scattered all over EA who will not be willing to sell JUB below a certain level..

Would you sell your house, car, business just because of the jitters in Europe and US?? So why then sell your stock??

*Jokingly* You would be entitled to sell your stock as no one lives at Pride Centre, Equity Centre, Eveready Factory, etc, as opposed to your home
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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