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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:@sober that's the classic "market bargain turns premium" The old switch-a-roo we used to call it Will the Safcom 300 million demand ever return? hisah, what's your target entry price for Safaricom. Is this a long term play for you? I ask as M-PESA not yet close to being as big as it can be and I've never known to you go long on anything GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/25/2010 Posts: 158
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hisah wrote:Ak below 6/- @Qw - That 5.55 order will get filled. Mpesa sub 3/- by tomorrow. Cheapest bank in the world & still getting cheap KCB below 20/- NSE @3444. Bargains galore continues with market capitalization now @ 950B well below 1.2T. Volume still anaemic thus creating slide fireworks. Steel nerves will be required as ulcers central squeezes out weak hands. A 'tungependa serikali itusaidie' kodak moment... Speculators are yet to get killed. Stay tuned as the fat tail gets fatter Got small amount of KCB today at 19 something plus safcom too. Next week i get more at lower prices and week after that and week after that. Then I will pick on another loser stock and walk with it for the next three weeks until i have filled all my target quotas for each of these stocks. How come the big timers like EABL, JUBILEE, STANCHAT, etc are not comind down as fast as these 'popular common stocks?' I want to get a piece of the blue chip cakes! Keeping it all in the family
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Muthawamunene wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:But KCB @15-16...crack! goes the piggy bank can it realy get thea? But at that price I bet you'll be spoilt for choice, not only KCB. But tamaa iliua fisi. At 15, one is likely to pose, KCB at 12-13... Before you know, the 'bus' has left GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/25/2011 Posts: 946
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WOW !!!! now why did i buy a.k at 6 bob ...nkt nkt. total waste of money . when the index broke the 3500 mark it really opened up a can of worms ..we will see if i can squeeze a buy order at 3.00 can safcom hit 1/= lol.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Muthawamunene wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:But KCB @15-16...crack! goes the piggy bank can it realy get thea? Well, the mkt is on a free fall. Let me have the liberty to bet against my darlings then buy them.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/11/2006 Posts: 972 Location: Home
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QW25071985 wrote:WOW !!!! now why did i buy a.k at 6 bob ...nkt nkt. total waste of money . when the index broke the 3500 mark it really opened up a can of worms ..we will see if i can squeeze a buy order at 3.00 can safcom hit 1/= lol. The Gospel according to Youngyoung wrote:NO 49
When you buy a stock and the next day the price falls by a certain percentage, that should not be the reason you should stop investing in stocks.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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KCB @15-16 with my target of a div of 1.5-1.75/share will be more than great for me.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2011 Posts: 264 Location: Nairobi
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Muthawamunene wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:But KCB @15-16...crack! goes the piggy bank can it realy get thea? Well, the mkt is on a free fall. Let me have the liberty to bet against my darlings then buy them. like all holes (i know some eye brows hve been raised here), this one too must have an end. its not like we have unlimitted funds waiting to be thrown onto the nse. Price chacing is a thing i swore never to do again.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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And who are this sellers who never get tired of selling? "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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With my Av.of 20.5 i'm good but to prompt any buy action KCB has to go down further by atleast 25%...then I will respond with a buy OTW the price can do what it wants.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2011 Posts: 264 Location: Nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:And who are this sellers who never get tired of selling? if you look at the number of shares being sold, what these people call volumes, you will see that they are small and sometimes scanty. My guess would be some Akinyi, Nekesa, Kimunto, Cheptoo, ....... Wanjiku ameonewa sana.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/25/2009 Posts: 184 Location: For now El-Fashier - Darfur
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Just look at the volumes as the price goes down. When the price stabilizes for a period of time say between a week and a months time and volumes starts increasing gradually then know we have almost bottomed up. "A bad decision made now is beta that a good one made later!!"
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Staff lay offs could free up at least 0.5cts (1.5B) in addition to Subsidiaries simply breaking even another 0.65cts (2B) in FY2011. KCB is just too much of a bargain.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:@sober that's the classic "market bargain turns premium" The old switch-a-roo we used to call it Will the Safcom 300 million demand ever return? hisah, what's your target entry price for Safaricom. Is this a long term play for you? I ask as M-PESA not yet close to being as big as it can be and I've never known to you go long on anything @youcant, I tried unga last yr, but didnt go as expected as per global food rally last yr & sold at 12. Now it is sub 9/-. Got MSC, scom & member in 2009 bloodbath & sold out last yr in Aug as referendum reached fever pitch. Bad sign that was plus absent volume to support the hype. Btw @guru almost fried me for real for stating so (lack of volumes) back in Oct/Nov 2010. I'll try & fish out that thread.
Sub 3 is good for mpesa which has been sold since Aug 2010 due to 3/- or 1/- tariff price wars. The 1yr selling pessimism is good value. When it fell to 2.60 in 2009 was turnover above Ksh 70B? Was mpesa a fad then? Cheap bank & bluechip this. But in 2009 was more focussed on HSI & ASX200 & Aussie dollar & gold stocks. The excessive selling was too sweet to ignore. KCB, Equity & many other bluechips still getting cheap with healthier revenues. Though the illiquid ones (bluechips) are not being sold as their mature investors have seen a lot of blood for years & are not easily pushed to sell cheap.
Another life time chance for guys to become millionaires when the bull returns...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2011 Posts: 207 Location: humu humu
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Global stocks are falling again. Nse is expected to dip. It seems evr 1 is waiting 4bargaiins..thats not gud..
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/25/2009 Posts: 184 Location: For now El-Fashier - Darfur
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I exited KPLC at 19.75 bought at 17.00 on Tuesday thinking had made a wrong decision but am just laughing as I watch it slide back probably past that level then buy back. Seems like we are not yet to bottoming out. Wait till past 21st Sep wen panic button will be fully pressed. "A bad decision made now is beta that a good one made later!!"
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Btw those stocks that are below their 2009 surrender lows are the most bearish. When the recovery returns they will rally hard, but will not be good quality since they're regarded worse than in 2009 panic central. @youcant - I forgot to mention that for mpesa stock it is long term, but that term is not fit for a trader strategy. I prefer using the term accumulation as the recovery builds up. Once the uptrend gets broken, I quit and move to something else. This is why I monitor the index to confirm whether the uptrend trendline is being supportive. If it breaks, I become defensive (sell those stocks that also breakdown). But this year the USDKES was the outlier. Never seen such a currency breakdown without a war or official devaluation by a CB. And its across EA, which is fishy - more like a currency attack akin to one Soros moves or bond vigilantes that hunt for defaulting money instruments... Btw all should read & understand what chapter 467 of laws of kenya states under the IMF Act - stinks... If I'm ever in a position to alter laws, this would go straight to the dustbin. Yes, I dislike those bretton woods with their economical aid gimmicks & one day when the world if fully awake, they'll be shutdown. The only issue with the trader strategy is when there is a bargain galore, the greed of getting any stock is difficult to deal with $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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anika66 wrote: How come the big timers like EABL, JUBILEE, STANCHAT, etc are not comind down as fast as these 'popular common stocks?' I want to get a piece of the blue chip cakes! In Jubilee's case its a tight community of only 6,000 shareholders (most are kenyan asians) scattered all over EA who will not be willing to sell JUB below a certain level.. Would you sell your house, car, business just because of the jitters in Europe and US?? So why then sell your stock?? Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/25/2011 Posts: 946
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hisah wrote:youcan'tstopusnow wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:@sober that's the classic "market bargain turns premium" The old switch-a-roo we used to call it Will the Safcom 300 million demand ever return? hisah, what's your target entry price for Safaricom. Is this a long term play for you? I ask as M-PESA not yet close to being as big as it can be and I've never known to you go long on anything @youcant, I tried unga last yr, but didnt go as expected as per global food rally last yr & sold at 12. Now it is sub 9/-. Got MSC, scom & member in 2009 bloodbath & sold out last yr in Aug as referendum reached fever pitch. Bad sign that was plus absent volume to support the hype. Btw @guru almost fried me for real for stating so (lack of volumes) back in Oct/Nov 2010. I'll try & fish out that thread.
Sub 3 is good for mpesa which has been sold since Aug 2010 due to 3/- or 1/- tariff price wars. The 1yr selling pessimism is good value. When it fell to 2.60 in 2009 was turnover above Ksh 70B? Was mpesa a fad then? Cheap bank & bluechip this. But in 2009 was more focussed on HSI & ASX200 & Aussie dollar & gold stocks. The excessive selling was too sweet to ignore. KCB, Equity & many other bluechips still getting cheap with healthier revenues. Though the illiquid ones (bluechips) are not being sold as their mature investors have seen a lot of blood for years & are not easily pushed to sell cheap.
Another life time chance for guys to become millionaires when the bull returns...
i cannt agree anymore...
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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guru267 wrote:anika66 wrote: How come the big timers like EABL, JUBILEE, STANCHAT, etc are not comind down as fast as these 'popular common stocks?' I want to get a piece of the blue chip cakes! In Jubilee's case its a tight community of only 6,000 shareholders (most are kenyan asians) scattered all over EA who will not be willing to sell JUB below a certain level.. Would you sell your house, car, business just because of the jitters in Europe and US?? So why then sell your stock?? *Jokingly* You would be entitled to sell your stock as no one lives at Pride Centre, Equity Centre, Eveready Factory, etc, as opposed to your home GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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