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TOTAL KENYA H1 2011
FUNKY
#1 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 9:49:48 AM
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Joined: 4/30/2010
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http://af.reuters.com/ar...s/idAFJOE77O02920110825

Total Kenya half year profits down by 70 percent.
mkonomtupu
#2 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 10:01:25 AM
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Location: River Road
Horrible, from a turn-over of 38 billion to get 145million profit. How long before they walk away. anyway i'm glad i quit oil stocks at the right time.
FUNKY
#3 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 10:28:27 AM
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Joined: 4/30/2010
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@ mkonomtupu - You should invest in oil stocks like KK who are present regionally. The problem with Total Kenya is that it is only a "KENYAN" only firm unlike KK whose subsidiary profits have started to contribute to the bottomline.
guru267
#4 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 10:33:37 AM
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Location: Nairobi
This is the biggest bullshit excuse Ive ever heard... Kwani is kenol not under price controls..
With kenya still contibuting to more than half of their earnings they should have also been negatively impacted by the price controls..

This firm should just delist and join the eveready pack..
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
StatMeister
#5 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 10:44:34 AM
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Joined: 5/23/2010
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Location: La Islas Galápagos
FUNKY wrote:
@ mkonomtupu - You should invest in oil stocks like KK who are present regionally. The problem with Total Kenya is that it is only a "KENYAN" only firm unlike KK whose subsidiary profits have started to contribute to the bottomline.


@funky, price controls is fashionable across the region. In Tanzania, marketers and regulators are in a cold war on price controls (the government recently threatened to withdraw licenses.javascript:__doPostBack('ctl00$ContentPlaceHolder1$forum$ctl01$PostReply','')

So am not sure how KK is better off.

http://www.investors.com...Price-Caps-Annulled.aspx
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
VituVingiSana
#6 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 10:55:17 AM
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Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,223
Location: Nairobi
Price Controls are not good for consumers or suppliers since they breed inefficiencies.

As for KK, they face controls in Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Ethiopia [not sure about Uganda, Zambia & Burundi] but it remains very efficient thus can push volumes which lower (per unit) costs across the network.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mkonomtupu
#7 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 11:18:20 AM
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Funky, there is nothing about KK's regional diversification when i hear the KK management talk reminds of some guy called Gareth George with his power point presentations when he was at KCB, used to be hot air. KK took a dip in profits same as total in 2009. Actually KK was 49/- (4.9 if factor the split) last year Jan. Oil stocks got messed when the price controls kicked in and i can't see a change in fortunes. Govt is not going address the shorfalls in the pricing mechanism any time soon.
VituVingiSana
#8 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 11:33:59 AM
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@m-tupu - Yes, GoK will not address price mechanism as long as it is POLITICALLY convenient... nevertheless, the REGIONAL diversification helps KK which can re-route resources, cash, products to markets that are most profitable.

An example:

In 1Q 2011, the KOSF tanks were full of products from a 'connected' OMC. KK had a ship that could not off-load & attracted HUGE demurrage fees.
KK complained to no avail (while there was a shortage of product across up-country incl Nairobi) so it sent the ship to Dar. Other "Kenya-only" firms would be forced to keep the ship at Mombasa.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
cnn
#9 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 12:00:17 PM
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Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,621
mkonomtupu wrote:
Funky, there is nothing about KK's regional diversification when i hear the KK management talk reminds of some guy called Gareth George with his power point presentations when he was at KCB, used to be hot air. KK took a dip in profits same as total in 2009. Actually KK was 49/- (4.9 if factor the split) last year Jan. Oil stocks got messed when the price controls kicked in and i can't see a change in fortunes. Govt is not going address the shorfalls in the pricing mechanism any time soon.

These are the kind i have and will continue to ignore,numbers do not lie,in that controlled environment we saw what half year was like.It is all about learning your market,the challanges and learning how to play it.
Aguytrying
#10 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 12:25:39 PM
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Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
I honestly dont know how kk are weathering the prices, they can even afford to give discounts!!!! there are serious genius brains at work over at KENOL KOBIL. Now imagine what they can do when the factors become better.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Cde Monomotapa
#11 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 12:27:30 PM
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Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
guru267 wrote:
This is the biggest bullshit excuse Ive ever heard... Kwani is kenol not under price controls..
With kenya still contibuting to more than half of their earnings they should have also been negatively impacted by the price controls..

This firm should just delist and join the eveready pack..

Ouch!
kenyainvestor
#12 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 12:28:12 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/12/2011
Posts: 194
The company attributed the reduced performance to various challenges facing the oil industry in Kenya, key among them the impact of price controls that were introduced in December 2010. TOTAL also blamed inefficiencies in the fuel supply chain

Sales Volumes were down 13.7% from 493 KMT to 425 KMT. Turnover however was up by 14.7% to Kshs. 44.72 Billion. The rise in Turnover was as a result of an increase in product price due to high international oil prices

TOTAL earned Kshs. 200 Million from the disposal of company assets.

Gross Profit Margin was down

For more analysis, check out my blog

LINK: TOTAL KENYA HALF YEAR 2011 RESULTS ANALYSIS

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FACEBOOK: Kenya Investing
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guru267
#13 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 12:39:24 PM
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Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Price Controls are not good for consumers or suppliers since they breed inefficiencies.

As for KK, they face controls in Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Ethiopia [not sure about Uganda, Zambia & Burundi] but it remains very efficient thus can push volumes which lower (per unit) costs across the network.


@VVS sema.. Museveni has always been the first to dismiss price controls so in Uganda there is no reprieve for the consumer... I was there this weekend and i noticed kobil has the highest charge for petrol in the whole country..

Premium = 3,850Ugx which is 131kshs
Diesel= 3,750Ugx which is 128kshs

But they still earn more than 50% of revenues from kenya so there 90% increase in profits was significantly from from kenya so total kenya has absolutely no excuse for their DISASTROUS results..
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#14 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 12:46:49 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,223
Location: Nairobi
@m-tupu - Yes, GoK will not address price mechanism as long as it is POLITICALLY convenient... nevertheless, the REGIONAL diversification helps KK which can re-route resources, cash, products to markets that are most profitable.

An example:

In 1Q 2011, the KOSF tanks were full of products from a 'connected' OMC. KK had a ship that could not off-load & attracted HUGE demurrage fees.
KK complained to no avail (while there was a shortage of product across up-country incl Nairobi) so it sent the ship to Dar. Other "Kenya-only" firms would be forced to keep the ship at Mombasa.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
kenyainvestor
#15 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 1:39:44 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/12/2011
Posts: 194
VituVingiSana wrote:
Price Controls are not good for consumers or suppliers since they breed inefficiencies.

As for KK, they face controls in Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Ethiopia [not sure about Uganda, Zambia & Burundi] but it remains very efficient thus can push volumes which lower (per unit) costs across the network.

@VituVingiSana, I recall during the AGM Segman hinting that Zambia had higher margins than the rest
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stocksmaster
#16 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 2:25:08 PM
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Aguytrying wrote:
I honestly dont know how kk are weathering the prices, they can even afford to give discounts!!!! there are serious genius brains at work over at KENOL KOBIL. Now imagine what they can do when the factors become better.


I have a feeling KK is killing the competition by price undercutting at the pump(as evidenced by the poor results of Total). This is fairly easy when you monopolise the supply chain from Importation (OTS - KK has won the last 3 monthly tenders in a row), to wholesaling and distributorship and finally to retail. The huge economies of scale can easily kill the competition in especially a very low margin business.

The Ksh 5 discount KK gives for Sundays/K Card holders is almost what a small scale petrol station owner gets as gross profit per liter.....meaning KK is selling its pump (retail) fuel at wholesale price......... how can the rest compete?

They seem to have adopted a very low margin high volume model. This model is supported by the regional diversification strategy and the tendering for country petroleum supplies (i think they call it the Africa trading desk. This ensures that they purchase petroleum in very huge volumes (both for their own outlets and for the over 10 countries they tender/supply).

The other key strategy that seems to be working well is product diversification/product development focus at KK. They seem to be shifting focus more on such high margin areas as LPG , bitumen, lubricants and other non-oil business lines eg renting out shops/space to Pharmacies, Bank ATMs, Food joints etc.

Retail oil business for KK accounts for only 14% of profit.....what does it account for at Total (K) especially based on the huge purchase they did of retail networks?

At this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if Total (K) may decide to go the route of the other Oil multinationals.......

Happy hunting.
Impunity
#17 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 2:38:41 PM
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Joined: 3/2/2009
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Location: Masada
Crazy, I see the chir prize touching 15 (from a hight of 28 last January).
wow!
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

youcan'tstopusnow
#18 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 2:48:07 PM
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Joined: 3/24/2010
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Location: Black Africa
Hmmm. Retail only accounts for 14%? Thanks stocksmaster for pointing that out
Total market share dropped...
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
Cde Monomotapa
#19 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 2:50:23 PM
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Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
KCB&KK Vs. SCBK&Total Ke. Any takers?
the deal
#20 Posted : Thursday, August 25, 2011 8:50:06 PM
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Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Horrible numbers from Total Kenya, it all boils down to inventory management, storage facilities and market share that’s were KenolKobil beats Total Kenya as depicted by the invetory/turnover ratio above, the oil industry in Kenya is characterized by low margins and high operational costs such as Transport and inefficient infrastructure such as an old refinery and inadequate storage facilities operated by inefficient and corrupt state companies which result in very thin operating margins (1.1%)

Read more here http://www.contrarianinv...-loses-market-share.html
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