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Investors Lounge
erifloss
#1261 Posted : Tuesday, August 23, 2011 9:46:23 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
Emerging markets are getting hell of a beating coz of pullouts & exposures to European sovereign debts. Most investors are more afraid of an Italian default than anything else coz they'll be no more money or enough to rescue them after Greece & Ireland. Though Markets are up yet Singapore stocks are now rated as expensive.
Yes the East is rising but its purely due to the West. If most US companies got sweeter incentives back home & pulled out of China, all those Industrial parks will crumble like dominoes, If the US fully utilizes & incentivises Silicon valley & their BPO industry do you see a strong India. All these Eastern countries normally anticipate US's & Europe's consumer & Job numbers coz basically those are their primary markets.
The truth is the West & East are joined on the hip with the West having the upper hand & remember the West will always let you grow as big as they want, remember Germany & the Soviet Union!
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
Cde Monomotapa
#1262 Posted : Tuesday, August 23, 2011 9:53:57 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
For the West it is simple..radically change the labor laws that it makes business sense to hire a Westerner over a Sino or Mexicano. OTW, status quo will remain.
Cde Monomotapa
#1263 Posted : Tuesday, August 23, 2011 10:41:10 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Check this out.

Zimbabwe’s real GDP growth for 2011 remains on target for 9.3%, said Grant Flanagan, fund manager at Pan-African financial services group Imara. “In our view this is conservative, but is easily one of the highest growth rates in Africa,” he added.

Flanagan said that after a good farming season, Zimbabwe could be at least 80% self-sufficient in food.....
http://www.howwemadeitin...ays-fund-manager/11896/

FUNKY
#1264 Posted : Tuesday, August 23, 2011 10:53:16 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
Cde Monomotapa
#1265 Posted : Tuesday, August 23, 2011 11:13:41 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
The SSA economic story is starkly different Laughing out loudly
hisah
#1266 Posted : Tuesday, August 23, 2011 3:09:46 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
George "shark" Soros has this to say... I wonder what the central planners think of such thoughts smile

http://www.businessinsid...d-a-us-double-dip-2011-8
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#1267 Posted : Tuesday, August 23, 2011 3:36:29 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
And something else from Moody's...

http://www.businessinsid...senior-vice-president-1

And another beautiful money goggles video on how to play alongside the casino owners...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIEjrWiUwNk
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Cde Monomotapa
#1268 Posted : Tuesday, August 23, 2011 3:48:43 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Very revealing comments right there! Cheers @hisah.
hisah
#1269 Posted : Tuesday, August 23, 2011 3:55:04 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Gaddafi's other side of the story...

http://www.rightsmonitor...ense-of-the-libyan-rais/
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Cde Monomotapa
#1270 Posted : Tuesday, August 23, 2011 4:34:00 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
[quote=hisah]Gaddafi's other side of the story...

http://www.rightsmonitor...nse-of-the-libyan-rais/[/quote]
WOW! :'( we need a serious game plan.
hisah
#1271 Posted : Tuesday, August 23, 2011 5:03:49 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
The current education matrix...

http://www.youtube.com/w...h?v=zDZFcDGpL4U&NR=1
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
kenyainvestor
#1272 Posted : Tuesday, August 23, 2011 5:43:03 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/12/2011
Posts: 194
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
[quote=hisah]Gaddafi's other side of the story...

http://www.rightsmonitor...nse-of-the-libyan-rais/[/quote]
WOW! :'( we need a serious game plan.

REAL TALK!
Who's next?!
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hisah
#1273 Posted : Tuesday, August 23, 2011 7:15:55 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
I am watching Europe going kaboom! This thing has tipped and I expect a short selling ban across all global markets smile

This Dexia bank will fry Europe into overdone brownies... When stocks catch up, it won't be funny.

BoA touches $6 while its CDS bursts through the 400bps level, well above the Lehman bros panic central period!





$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
erifloss
#1274 Posted : Tuesday, August 23, 2011 7:40:45 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
For the West it is simple..radically change the labor laws that it makes business sense to hire a Westerner over a Sino or Mexicano. OTW, status quo will remain.

The attractiveness of China as an investment destination is not only based on their labour market but many other factors. Just last year alone the FDI's grew to $105B:
1. A member of WTO. Remember WTO's main objective is to liberalize international trade, complaints on China are fast trooping in & now or later they'll have to fully align with international trade traditions to survive.
2. Some go with the thought of the 1.5B internal market but realise with cheap labour disposable income is a fable among the Chinese thus they end up exporting & with their GDP not expected to continue growing at the pace it did the internal market will still be a pipe dream.
3. Corporate taxes at Special export zones being at around 12.5% to 15% & places like the US still at 35%, the place becomes damn attractive but the reality is with a growing economy so does standards of living also rise & thus more govt expenditure expectected making a rise in taxes inevitable.
4. Cheap labour with time will be over. With the growing inflation & a contracting global economy, its just but a matter of time.
5. The Chinese would rather have a weak USD for a reserve currency or any other currency rather than let their currency taste the international currency markets. They need their currency weak coz that's their bloodline.
6. You can never control a growing skilled labour market & citizenry for long. As they say it only takes a man to change an ideology. With the billionaires & millionaires China is churning out i see an 'Anna' coming out.
7. The increase in commodity & mineral prices will make them more vulnerable just like the US & depedence on oil, their's will be coal & gold.
8. Their aggressiveness towards showing their economic might will also be their downfall in more ways than one. They are purchasing sovereign debts left right & center, debts that might become pieces of paper. They should seek advice from the USSR, a war is normally not only about guns & bombs & you might win a battle against the west but not the war.
9. Their stringent rules on constitution of ownership of foreign businesses.
In more ways than one their strengths might easily turn out to curtail them.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
Cde Monomotapa
#1275 Posted : Tuesday, August 23, 2011 8:02:12 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Thanks for the extra info. My apologies. I should have been precise that I was reffering to the exportation of manufacturing and production jobs/proccesses out the US. Affordable labor (maybe not cheap) is key to industrial operations and on a competitive basis China/Asia are more attractive labor wise. To create mega jobs the West has to think hard on how to return industries back home coz it has a longer value chain only compared to infrastructure & real estate devt. Services just don't cut it i.e designing an Iphone in the US only to have even the plastic housing manufactured abroad we've not even started talking internal chip-sets yet Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
kenyainvestor
#1276 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2011 12:10:00 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/12/2011
Posts: 194
Cde, indeed: 'Brain drain' in america http://businessdailyafri...-/10lnyxkz/-/index.html
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hisah
#1277 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2011 4:52:01 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Interesting day as US stocks stage a boost rally based on QE3 rumours to be announced this Friday. These days markets rally on monetization and not fundies... So why study economics or financial courses?

Somehow Asia fails to flow up the US move. Maybe coz Moody's has downgraded Japan.

Broken markets... However, if QE3 is announced, expect a huge relief rally from the oversold levels across all markets. Depending on the size of the printing spree, the squeeze rally would lift very fast. However new highs for the year are done. I would be very surprised to see markets rally above the May highs this year...

Something interesting about the squid aka Goldman sucks :^)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMpJlNePSYE

After the Jap downgrade hardly moves the yen down, Jap MoF says will set aside $100B to weaken yen & force banks to declare fx positions (sounds like our ndungu). USDJPY hardly moved?! This year central planners are being roughed up by Mr Market across the globe. Central planners have lost control of the ship's wheel?!? smile

I wish I could meet my professor lecturer now and have a nice chat with him about paper money & my failed papers for not towing the line smile
He sure will understand why i dropped out and why i said the whole sys & its teachings are BS.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#1278 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2011 6:28:59 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
BoA $4 November 2011 puts bought today?

Hmmm... Someone is betting the stock will tank to $4?!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Cde Monomotapa
#1279 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2011 6:41:58 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
hisah wrote:
Interesting day as US stocks stage a boost rally based on QE3 rumours to be announced this Friday. These days markets rally on monetization and not fundies... So why study economics or financial courses?

Somehow Asia fails to flow up the US move. Maybe coz Moody's has downgraded Japan.

Broken markets... However, if QE3 is announced, expect a huge relief rally from the oversold levels across all markets. Depending on the size of the printing spree, the squeeze rally would lift very fast. However new highs for the year are done. I would be very surprised to see markets rally above the May highs this year...

Something interesting about the squid aka Goldman sucks :^)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMpJlNePSYE

After the Jap downgrade hardly moves the yen down, Jap MoF says will set aside $100B to weaken yen & force banks to declare fx positions (sounds like our ndungu). USDJPY hardly moved?! This year central planners are being roughed up by Mr Market across the globe. Central planners have lost control of the ship's wheel?!? smile

I wish I could meet my professor lecturer now and have a nice chat with him about paper money & my failed papers for not towing the line smile
He sure will understand why i dropped out and why i said the whole sys & its teachings are BS.

Laughing out loudly Word...
erifloss
#1280 Posted : Wednesday, August 24, 2011 8:18:25 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
Gaddafi's imminent downfall seems to have done good for the market coz most of them have been on an upswing while oil futures down.
As for Vietnam, inflation up to 23%. Relevance-4th largest exporter of natural rubber. Moody's downgrade of Japs debt as per Hisah's observation has had no major effect reason being most of it is domestically held + our kawaida bro China.
A slump on confidence in the German economy highly expected coz of the Euro woes & inability to give confident direction as the largest economy in Europe. Funny enough there are sweet returns in Ireland, bond returns stand at 14% & the GDP is expected to grow by 0.5%, it might seem minimal but for an economy right out or not completely out of a slump & around economies reporting expected negative growth it is good & guys trooping back in(people never seem to learn).
We are all awaiting for Bernanke on Friday on these QE3 rumours & on another side Qantas had a slump of 83% on its earnings on the second half. Their's a company that wants to start betting on Yuan denominated assets, what will this do or impact on the Chinese currency & economy?
World markets intrigues keeping on!
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
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