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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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I was looking at the latest July bond yield curve for July prepared by Canon Asset Managers..it appeared to be flattening at the end...indicating a changing business cycle...if the T-bill rates continues to rise due to the recent tightening by CBK then the spread between T-bill and 10year bonds is gonna get choked...what that means banks will have to pay more interest on deposit resulting in increased interest expense...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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I was looking at the latest July bond yield curve for July prepared by Canon Asset Managers..it appeared to be flattening at the end...indicating a changing business cycle...if the T-bill rates continues to rise due to the recent tightening by CBK then the spread between T-bill and 10year bonds is gonna get choked...what that means banks will have to pay more interest on deposit resulting in increased interest expense...but GoK is a winner cos the cost of debt will come down
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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After going through all counters online iam glad to learn that supply accrossboard is almost drying,signalling a +ve week. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Interesting to note that NSE stopped updating their twitter account as US got downgraded and markets fell off the cliff... https://twitter.com/NSEKenya$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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the deal wrote:I was looking at the latest July bond yield curve for July prepared by Canon Asset Managers..it appeared to be flattening at the end...indicating a changing business cycle...if the T-bill rates continues to rise due to the recent tightening by CBK then the spread between T-bill and 10year bonds is gonna get choked...what that means banks will have to pay more interest on deposit resulting in increased interest expense...but GoK is a winner cos the cost of debt will come down The rates go up http://af.reuters.com/ar...s/idAFJOE77E08J20110815 hehehe banks will see dust this quater 
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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the deal wrote:the deal wrote:I was looking at the latest July bond yield curve for July prepared by Canon Asset Managers..it appeared to be flattening at the end...indicating a changing business cycle...if the T-bill rates continues to rise due to the recent tightening by CBK then the spread between T-bill and 10year bonds is gonna get choked...what that means banks will have to pay more interest on deposit resulting in increased interest expense...but GoK is a winner cos the cost of debt will come down The rates go up http://af.reuters.com/ar...s/idAFJOE77E08J20110815 hehehe banks will see dust this quater Those banks with tight liquidity ratios this quarter will feel like this  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Some fibo's for NSE projecting the likely rebound levels within the downtrend channel. The fibo assumes the pivot (4055) as the high of the rebound (100%) and the low is 3511. Retracements - rebound levels138.2% - 4262.80 100% - 4055 76.4% - 3926.61 61.8% - 3847.19 - Solid resistance starts from here upwards 50% - 3783 38.2% - 3718.81 23.6% - 3639.38 Extentions - downtrend targets assuming the slide continues61.8% - 3174.81 100% - 2967 - At this index level, it will be total surrender! 138.2% - 2759.19 161.8% - 2630.81 200% - 2423 261.8% - 2086.81 I wanted to use today's closing price, but alas, it is not posted on NSE's site. I gave up on mystocks.co.ke as I stated last week since the last update was Aug 3rd (not the stock prices, the index). $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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hisah wrote:Some fibo's for NSE projecting the likely rebound levels within the downtrend channel. The fibo assumes the pivot (4055) as the high of the rebound (100%) and the low is 3511.
Retracements - rebound levels
138.2% - 4262.80
100% - 4055
76.4% - 3926.61
61.8% - 3847.19 - Solid resistance starts from here upwards
50% - 3783
38.2% - 3718.81
23.6% - 3639.38
Extentions - downtrend targets assuming the slide continues
61.8% - 3174.81
100% - 2967 - At this index level, it will be total surrender!
138.2% - 2759.19
161.8% - 2630.81
200% - 2423
261.8% - 2086.81
I wanted to use today's closing price, but alas, it is not posted on NSE's site. I gave up on mystocks.co.ke as I stated last week since the last update was Aug 3rd (not the stock prices, the index). @Hisah top notch TA as always 
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Btw just seen from Alykhan's site that NSE index closed today at 3501.64. Still no update of the same on NSE and their twitter account is still on stale tweets back in Aug 5th. 3500... I can foresee the beginning of ATS morning and afternoon system failures... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/25/2011 Posts: 946
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One thing is certain the nxt move on the n.s.e will be HUGE. I consider this low volumes to be calm before a storm.so brace yourself.
And those thinking that the banks will fall futher might be suprised to know that it may have been factored in.equity at 15.00 , co-op at 9.50 is just impossible. It means at these prices inflation, high interest rates etc has wipped of all of 2010 earnings.impossible.
I am a bull and i say we have bottomed.
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/22/2008 Posts: 851 Location: nairobi
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QW25071985 wrote:One thing is certain the nxt move on the n.s.e will be HUGE. I consider this low volumes to be calm before a storm.so brace yourself.
And those thinking that the banks will fall futher might be suprised to know that it may have been factored in.equity at 15.00 , co-op at 9.50 is just impossible. It means at these prices inflation, high interest rates etc has wipped of all of 2010 earnings.impossible.
I am a bull and i say we have bottomed. this is more of a wait and see attitude. Any rebound will be that of the dead cat phenomenon. Even bears do have some rebounds................still waiting at 3200 mark
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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The monkeys wish is not the farmers wish. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2011 Posts: 264 Location: Nairobi
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QW25071985 wrote:One thing is certain the nxt move on the n.s.e will be HUGE. I consider this low volumes to be calm before a storm.so brace yourself.
And those thinking that the banks will fall futher might be suprised to know that it may have been factored in.equity at 15.00 , co-op at 9.50 is just impossible. It means at these prices inflation, high interest rates etc has wipped of all of 2010 earnings.impossible.
I am a bull and i say we have bottomed. Never thought this day would come, but i so totally agree with you. The index may have fallen, but its coz its got too much weight in a few large counters. If you look at the other constituents, they are stable, banks are on the rise. Am not saying that the rise will be astronomicall, but odds of a fall are slim esp for kcb, coop, and equity. But i could be wrong.
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2011 Posts: 264 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:Some fibo's for NSE projecting the likely rebound levels within the downtrend channel. The fibo assumes the pivot (4055) as the high of the rebound (100%) and the low is 3511.
Retracements - rebound levels
138.2% - 4262.80
100% - 4055
76.4% - 3926.61
61.8% - 3847.19 - Solid resistance starts from here upwards
50% - 3783
38.2% - 3718.81
23.6% - 3639.38
Extentions - downtrend targets assuming the slide continues
61.8% - 3174.81
100% - 2967 - At this index level, it will be total surrender!
138.2% - 2759.19
161.8% - 2630.81
200% - 2423
261.8% - 2086.81
I wanted to use today's closing price, but alas, it is not posted on NSE's site. I gave up on mystocks.co.ke as I stated last week since the last update was Aug 3rd (not the stock prices, the index). then consider switchin brokers. Mine sends me the day's excel price list and the day's summary and review 15 min after markets close.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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There were all signs today that equity ,kcb,hfck,centum,kplc were ready for an up swing. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2011 Posts: 264 Location: Nairobi
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in fact, i would attribute the shaving of tdays nine points off the index to British American tobacco which lost 15 bob.
its too bad that wen the likes of safcom, eabl, tobacco etc sneeze, we declare anthrax in the market.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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B.a.t was suffering from going ex-div,and was expected i dont think it will dip further. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/25/2011 Posts: 946
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And you guys thought i was nuts buying a.k .this news shld provide a jolt tommorrow. Lol. http://www.bloomberg.com...corporate-customers.html
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/9/2011 Posts: 730 Location: Nairobi
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[quote=QW25071985]And you guys thought i was nuts buying a.k .this news shld provide a jolt tommorrow. Lol. http://www.bloomberg.com...orporate-customers.html[/quote] its about time, i have always had faith in AK, I first got it 2009 at 24.50, I have been adding continously during the recent bear. our goals are best achieved indirectly
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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[quote=QW25071985]And you guys thought i was nuts buying a.k .this news shld provide a jolt tommorrow. Lol. http://www.bloomberg.com...orporate-customers.html[/quote] Buy the rumour, sell the good news. Repeat N x infinity...
When a firm goes on a trumpeting course without request in a bear trend, just remember Bear Stearns or Lehman Bros $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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