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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
murenj
#291 Posted : Monday, August 15, 2011 6:44:57 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/22/2008
Posts: 851
Location: nairobi
QW25071985 wrote:
One thing is certain the nxt move on the n.s.e will be HUGE. I consider this low volumes to be calm before a storm.so brace yourself.
And those thinking that the banks will fall futher might be suprised to know that it may have been factored in.equity at 15.00 , co-op at 9.50 is just impossible. It means at these prices inflation, high interest rates etc has wipped of all of 2010 earnings.impossible.
I am a bull and i say we have bottomed.
this is more of a wait and see attitude. Any rebound will be that of the dead cat phenomenon. Even bears do have some rebounds................still waiting at 3200 mark
mlennyma
#292 Posted : Monday, August 15, 2011 7:07:41 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
The monkeys wish is not the farmers wish.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Muthawamunene
#293 Posted : Monday, August 15, 2011 7:09:59 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 264
Location: Nairobi
QW25071985 wrote:
One thing is certain the nxt move on the n.s.e will be HUGE. I consider this low volumes to be calm before a storm.so brace yourself.
And those thinking that the banks will fall futher might be suprised to know that it may have been factored in.equity at 15.00 , co-op at 9.50 is just impossible. It means at these prices inflation, high interest rates etc has wipped of all of 2010 earnings.impossible.
I am a bull and i say we have bottomed.

Never thought this day would come, but i so totally agree with you. The index may have fallen, but its coz its got too much weight in a few large counters. If you look at the other constituents, they are stable, banks are on the rise. Am not saying that the rise will be astronomicall, but odds of a fall are slim esp for kcb, coop, and equity. But i could be wrong.
Muthawamunene
#294 Posted : Monday, August 15, 2011 7:15:51 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 264
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
Some fibo's for NSE projecting the likely rebound levels within the downtrend channel. The fibo assumes the pivot (4055) as the high of the rebound (100%) and the low is 3511.

Retracements - rebound levels

138.2% - 4262.80
100% - 4055
76.4% - 3926.61
61.8% - 3847.19 - Solid resistance starts from here upwards
50% - 3783
38.2% - 3718.81
23.6% - 3639.38

Extentions - downtrend targets assuming the slide continues

61.8% - 3174.81
100% - 2967 - At this index level, it will be total surrender!
138.2% - 2759.19
161.8% - 2630.81
200% - 2423
261.8% - 2086.81

I wanted to use today's closing price, but alas, it is not posted on NSE's site. I gave up on mystocks.co.ke as I stated last week since the last update was Aug 3rd (not the stock prices, the index).

then consider switchin brokers. Mine sends me the day's excel price list and the day's summary and review 15 min after markets close.
mlennyma
#295 Posted : Monday, August 15, 2011 7:24:46 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
There were all signs today that equity ,kcb,hfck,centum,kplc were ready for an up swing.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Muthawamunene
#296 Posted : Monday, August 15, 2011 7:35:49 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2011
Posts: 264
Location: Nairobi
in fact, i would attribute the shaving of tdays nine points off the index to British American tobacco which lost 15 bob.

its too bad that wen the likes of safcom, eabl, tobacco etc sneeze, we declare anthrax in the market.
mlennyma
#297 Posted : Monday, August 15, 2011 7:41:38 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
B.a.t was suffering from going ex-div,and was expected i dont think it will dip further.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
QW25071985
#298 Posted : Monday, August 15, 2011 10:02:46 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/25/2011
Posts: 946
And you guys thought i was nuts buying a.k
.this news shld provide a jolt tommorrow. Lol.

http://www.bloomberg.com...corporate-customers.html
kiterunner
#299 Posted : Monday, August 15, 2011 10:42:14 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/9/2011
Posts: 730
Location: Nairobi
[quote=QW25071985]And you guys thought i was nuts buying a.k
.this news shld provide a jolt tommorrow. Lol.

http://www.bloomberg.com...orporate-customers.html[/quote]



its about time, i have always had faith in AK, I first got it 2009 at 24.50, I have been adding continously during the recent bear.
our goals are best achieved indirectly
hisah
#300 Posted : Monday, August 15, 2011 10:59:29 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
[quote=QW25071985]And you guys thought i was nuts buying a.k
.this news shld provide a jolt tommorrow. Lol.

http://www.bloomberg.com...orporate-customers.html[/quote]
Buy the rumour, sell the good news. Repeat N x infinity...

When a firm goes on a trumpeting course without request in a bear trend, just remember Bear Stearns or Lehman Bros smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
570 Pages«<2829303132>»
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