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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
the deal
#281 Posted : Monday, August 15, 2011 8:28:46 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
I was looking at the latest July bond yield curve for July prepared by Canon Asset Managers..it appeared to be flattening at the end...indicating a changing business cycle...if the T-bill rates continues to rise due to the recent tightening by CBK then the spread between T-bill and 10year bonds is gonna get choked...what that means banks will have to pay more interest on deposit resulting in increased interest expense...
the deal
#282 Posted : Monday, August 15, 2011 8:31:01 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
I was looking at the latest July bond yield curve for July prepared by Canon Asset Managers..it appeared to be flattening at the end...indicating a changing business cycle...if the T-bill rates continues to rise due to the recent tightening by CBK then the spread between T-bill and 10year bonds is gonna get choked...what that means banks will have to pay more interest on deposit resulting in increased interest expense...but GoK is a winner cos the cost of debt will come down
mlennyma
#283 Posted : Monday, August 15, 2011 9:45:20 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
After going through all counters online iam glad to learn that supply accrossboard is almost drying,signalling a +ve week.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
hisah
#284 Posted : Monday, August 15, 2011 10:52:51 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Interesting to note that NSE stopped updating their twitter account as US got downgraded and markets fell off the cliff...

https://twitter.com/NSEKenya
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
the deal
#285 Posted : Monday, August 15, 2011 12:55:06 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
the deal wrote:
I was looking at the latest July bond yield curve for July prepared by Canon Asset Managers..it appeared to be flattening at the end...indicating a changing business cycle...if the T-bill rates continues to rise due to the recent tightening by CBK then the spread between T-bill and 10year bonds is gonna get choked...what that means banks will have to pay more interest on deposit resulting in increased interest expense...but GoK is a winner cos the cost of debt will come down


The rates go up http://af.reuters.com/ar...s/idAFJOE77E08J20110815 hehehe banks will see dust this quatersmile
hisah
#286 Posted : Monday, August 15, 2011 4:18:42 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
the deal wrote:
the deal wrote:
I was looking at the latest July bond yield curve for July prepared by Canon Asset Managers..it appeared to be flattening at the end...indicating a changing business cycle...if the T-bill rates continues to rise due to the recent tightening by CBK then the spread between T-bill and 10year bonds is gonna get choked...what that means banks will have to pay more interest on deposit resulting in increased interest expense...but GoK is a winner cos the cost of debt will come down


The rates go up http://af.reuters.com/ar...s/idAFJOE77E08J20110815 hehehe banks will see dust this quatersmile

Those banks with tight liquidity ratios this quarter will feel like this d'oh!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#287 Posted : Monday, August 15, 2011 4:32:28 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Some fibo's for NSE projecting the likely rebound levels within the downtrend channel. The fibo assumes the pivot (4055) as the high of the rebound (100%) and the low is 3511.

Retracements - rebound levels

138.2% - 4262.80
100% - 4055
76.4% - 3926.61
61.8% - 3847.19 - Solid resistance starts from here upwards
50% - 3783
38.2% - 3718.81
23.6% - 3639.38

Extentions - downtrend targets assuming the slide continues

61.8% - 3174.81
100% - 2967 - At this index level, it will be total surrender!
138.2% - 2759.19
161.8% - 2630.81
200% - 2423
261.8% - 2086.81

I wanted to use today's closing price, but alas, it is not posted on NSE's site. I gave up on mystocks.co.ke as I stated last week since the last update was Aug 3rd (not the stock prices, the index).
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
the deal
#288 Posted : Monday, August 15, 2011 4:47:48 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
hisah wrote:
Some fibo's for NSE projecting the likely rebound levels within the downtrend channel. The fibo assumes the pivot (4055) as the high of the rebound (100%) and the low is 3511.

Retracements - rebound levels

138.2% - 4262.80
100% - 4055
76.4% - 3926.61
61.8% - 3847.19 - Solid resistance starts from here upwards
50% - 3783
38.2% - 3718.81
23.6% - 3639.38

Extentions - downtrend targets assuming the slide continues

61.8% - 3174.81
100% - 2967 - At this index level, it will be total surrender!
138.2% - 2759.19
161.8% - 2630.81
200% - 2423
261.8% - 2086.81

I wanted to use today's closing price, but alas, it is not posted on NSE's site. I gave up on mystocks.co.ke as I stated last week since the last update was Aug 3rd (not the stock prices, the index).

@Hisah top notch TA as alwaysApplause Applause Applause
hisah
#289 Posted : Monday, August 15, 2011 4:56:23 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Btw just seen from Alykhan's site that NSE index closed today at 3501.64. Still no update of the same on NSE and their twitter account is still on stale tweets back in Aug 5th.

3500... I can foresee the beginning of ATS morning and afternoon system failures...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
QW25071985
#290 Posted : Monday, August 15, 2011 5:26:58 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/25/2011
Posts: 946
One thing is certain the nxt move on the n.s.e will be HUGE. I consider this low volumes to be calm before a storm.so brace yourself.
And those thinking that the banks will fall futher might be suprised to know that it may have been factored in.equity at 15.00 , co-op at 9.50 is just impossible. It means at these prices inflation, high interest rates etc has wipped of all of 2010 earnings.impossible.
I am a bull and i say we have bottomed.
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