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Oil prices will stay high
Mainat
#21 Posted : Thursday, November 12, 2009 10:40:00 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
So we agreed that as far as oil is concerned,


there are no foreseeable substitutes within range of competing with oil say in the next 20-30 years. That is a global issue,which will only be resolved when the factual numbers about oil reserves are known and everybody starts panicking. The Chinese already are...
As far as our economy is concerned,increasing storage is a cheap way of hedging against higher prices. However,medium to long-term,we need to either go Geothermal (though that only fixes the electricity issue but not cars) or look at how we can maximise our neighbours output of oil.

VVS- Are we agreed that in the light of liklely higher oil prices,Kenya's economy has a potential risk? I think so. Are we agreed that it might be a good idea to increase storage? I think so. So what does this have to do with me being too short,diasporan etc. Don't we all want Kenya to progress? Like I said the diasporan/too short/too tall arguement is a bit pedestrian. And that is being polite




www.mjengakenya.blogspot.com
Sehemu ndio nyumba
half_empty
#22 Posted : Thursday, November 12, 2009 12:29:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/23/2007
Posts: 127
@vvs...as another pedestrian from the diaspora,i observed a not so developed country using LPG as vehicle fuel. not quite the alternative but at least the car runs longer meaning our 60 day reserves can be stretched by a day or two. any compelling reason we dont use LPG for cars in kenya... and its not an issue of technology,coz the mechanical bits r pretty straight forward and any old junk can be converted
Waria
#23 Posted : Thursday, November 12, 2009 4:01:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/11/2007
Posts: 213
To clarify..in the medium term oil still rules...but as someone below said the billions of chinnese,indians,pakistanis,nigerians etc have not even reached vehicular peak and already there is soo much pressure on this supply. The next logical thing would be for a brilliant chinesse to come up with an alternative which is not visible to us now hence changing the dynamics...may be i have watched too many sci fi.

From this change good will come
VituVingiSana
#24 Posted : Thursday, November 12, 2009 8:05:00 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,221
Location: Nairobi
@mainat - I have no idea how tall you are... I never went personal on you... Now... 1) U said NOCK (as I understood it) be in charge of oil hedging (storage + derivatives) for the country... Erm,smell the coffee... this is a GOVERNMENT parastatal that only makes make money coz it * pays no/lower taxes,**does not deal with delayed VAT/duty refunds *** is funded (cheap funds) from GoK (and other taxpayers) **** gets GoK support for import tenders & special allocations/favoritism.

* (2) Storage - Kenya does NOT have sufficient storage facilities. And the reluctance to build 'private' new facilities is coz the GoK controls/influences so many facets (KPC,KPRL,KPA,NOCK) that a private oil firm that buys & 'stores' cheaper oil will be accused of hoarding!

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#25 Posted : Thursday, November 12, 2009 8:45:00 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,221
Location: Nairobi
Dear half empty: LNG makes sense if we can find/exploit LNG fields off the coast of Kenya. LPG is a petroleum derivative... cooking gas is LPG... Kenya imports LPG to supplement local production (from the refining process... this is a complex subject). I believe the vehicles you are talking off run on LNG not LPG... I may be wrong...
*** As is,we do not have sufficient storage for LPG... A few months ago,there was a breakdown at KPRL & we almost ran out if not for an emergency shipment through a private firm...

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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