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Fear on the Street: Inside the Stock Sell-Off
Cde Monomotapa
#21 Posted : Friday, August 05, 2011 11:24:00 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
I'll be gunning for 1,000%+ returns when I come there. In between time i'll be making such from Zimbabwe's on-going economic recovery. Same story, different cast.
Nabwire
#22 Posted : Friday, August 05, 2011 11:39:05 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/22/2011
Posts: 1,325
Where do you get this time frame that the recession will last 10 years? What if right after elections, the bulls come roaring out?? Then what, you will still buy in 2015?? I dont put timeframes, I just listen to politicians and Wallstreet and ofcourse research individual companies, gosh I wonder what Buffett's day is like coz the little research I do is overwhelming. LOL ati hii sio ndoa, since I dont have funds i'm in and out of the markets, though I dont short, too complicated for me. Now you and I both know 1,000% returns is an impossibility, ok maybe except in Zim. Good luck with that in the US.The only way, that I know of, that you can make a tenth of that in the US is through futures, another game that I dont understand and Buffett advises against, and like someone said, I tend to take him seriously
Cde Monomotapa
#23 Posted : Saturday, August 06, 2011 12:09:18 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
U r right. Timelines r tricky so i'll be watching the interest rates which will definitely be going up in years to come to absorb all that QE money that went to Wall street instead of the real economy. I will make 1,000% in Zim as it is coming from a low base and since post 2009, Zim has been using the USD as the official currency (from stocks to vegeis) so that's 1,000%+ returns in USD terms.
Cde Monomotapa
#24 Posted : Saturday, August 06, 2011 12:14:25 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Economic cycles usually have 10-15yr boom-busts. For example, Zim's decline started in 2000 and bottomed in 2009. My entry point was 2006 during hyper-inflation and a dysfunctional currency. So it can be seen we got it for da low!
Cde Monomotapa
#25 Posted : Saturday, August 06, 2011 12:19:48 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
The new Zim economy/GDP is growing at 9-10% p.a using the USD. US GDP growth is stagnant - spot the difference??
Cde Monomotapa
#26 Posted : Saturday, August 06, 2011 12:45:34 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
How can the Zim economy run on forex and Kenya can't? It's because it mines gold,platinum,palladium,steel,coal,diamonds,chrome,nickel ferrochrome e.t.c (42 different resources in total), has vast tobacco & cotton exports, great tourism (Victoria Falls) - all that wealth divided amongst a popn.of only 15M of Africa's most literate people.
Nabwire
#27 Posted : Saturday, August 06, 2011 12:57:10 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/22/2011
Posts: 1,325
Again, Bernanke is not going to raise interest rates, rates are lowered in a recession coz of inflation and raised in a bull market coz of deflation Econ 101. Now if we go through stagflation, iko shida. Whats your reasoning for raising rates coz of QE? This was done by printing money which was eventually consumed without results, so how does that justify raising rates? Say it with me, you only raise rates when the economy is doing exceptionally well to avoid deflation.
PS why do I keep getting a msg that you can only comment after 3000 seconds? How come you can do multiple posts and I cant?
Cde Monomotapa
#28 Posted : Saturday, August 06, 2011 1:13:46 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
QE was used to repair balance sheets and driving up wall-street instead of creating jobs in the real economy. That I refer to as zero-calorie money. Even our Kazi Kwa Vijana did better under our stimulus package alongside building roads & connecting more to electricity Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly. Bernanke won't raise rates now but come after the polls and he is off in retirement, they'll go up. This is not about personalities, just basic economics and monetary policy. Too much money doing nothing (US) or doing too much (China) leads to inflation, simple. How do U arrest it? Raise interest rates to mop it up. Obama promised construction jobs in exchange for stimulus. Where are they? Republicans are taking control, no more freebies!
Cde Monomotapa
#29 Posted : Saturday, August 06, 2011 1:15:32 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
About the posts, U have to rise up the ranks Madam Hello smile
Cde Monomotapa
#30 Posted : Saturday, August 06, 2011 1:25:57 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Wait a minute...too much money doing nothing leads to deflation due to lack of spending. That's even worse!! The govt.will almost be the only business man in the economy (like pre 09 Zim) as the US corporates holds on to cash in bank. More job losses coming up.
Cde Monomotapa
#31 Posted : Saturday, August 06, 2011 1:32:20 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
At some point the money will start to find its way into the economy n since growth will be laggard...they'll b too much in circulation, interest rates up go up to mop up the excess. Its tricky smile but a great oppurtunity in the making.
Cde Monomotapa
#32 Posted : Saturday, August 06, 2011 1:40:46 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
I know U r dying to post a response Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly as I enjoy myself bashing the US economy. How many more seconds to go? Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Nabwire
#33 Posted : Saturday, August 06, 2011 2:04:11 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/22/2011
Posts: 1,325
Read my lips...rates will not go up in the US!!! At this rate, I should just place a $1,000 bet, go to www.bloomberg.com click markets, scroll down to key rates and check the Fed interest rates, they are on a downward trend. Unless you are talking about Libor. Cant believe we are having this convo, regardless of who the Fed chairman is, rates cant go up in a recession/depression, if they did the US would become worse than Zim.
About QE, most people have the wrong impression that Wallstreet was bailed out or given free money. NO, Wallstreet firms were loaned money with interest, and most were basically managed by the government in terms of what they can or cant do, until they paid back their loans. Thats why majority of the firms paid up those loans chap chap to avoid Government scrutiny. The Federal gov made a profit off of QE, but ask the average American and they think Wallstreet was bailed out for free. Republicans perfected this lie.
About rising up, that just sucks!!! I dont plan on rising up anytime soon since I rarely post, dont know who actually thinks its a good idea to dictate how much s'one can say according to rank. Just saying!!At this rate, I will not post again, im not used to working kienyeji like this, its a very bad idea to limit what pple can say coz of rank, who does that?? Ati Elder, I wanna be young forever. By the way keep bashing the US, utashangaa, I am very bullish on the US. After everything clears, China will be left holding debt on paper, watch this space. With that ciao, I'm not waiting another 50 mins to post!!
Cde Monomotapa
#34 Posted : Saturday, August 06, 2011 2:21:46 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly cheers and enjoy the recession as I prepare to come make a profit out ya'll misery.
Cde Monomotapa
#35 Posted : Saturday, August 06, 2011 9:30:52 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
@Nabwire. The US has a downgrade from Dagong (Sino) & S&P...What's ur position on the direction US interest rates again? smile
the deal
#36 Posted : Saturday, August 06, 2011 10:17:43 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Why go far....how far is Kenya from a recession? I hope Zim is as great as you say @Cde i'm tired of seeing Zimbabweam roam our streets...i'm not xenophobic but they should go back...FYI SA companies run Africa.
Cde Monomotapa
#37 Posted : Saturday, August 06, 2011 10:29:10 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
the deal wrote:
Why go far....how far is Kenya from a recession? I hope Zim is as great as you say @Cde i'm tired of seeing Zimbabweam roam our streets...i'm not xenophobic but they should go back...FYI SA companies run Africa.

U have a lot to learn. Stay tuned.
Cde Monomotapa
#38 Posted : Saturday, August 06, 2011 10:40:14 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
@deal. I have come to know U as an events manager and that's why we tend to be at different poles with me as a process manager smile
the deal
#39 Posted : Saturday, August 06, 2011 10:49:06 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
the deal wrote:
Why go far....how far is Kenya from a recession? I hope Zim is as great as you say @Cde i'm tired of seeing Zimbabweam roam our streets...i'm not xenophobic but they should go back...FYI SA companies run Africa.

U have a lot to learn. Stay tuned.

Zimbabwe needs aid to feed its people...that old crook destroyed the once 'bread basket of Africa'...it's not being an events manager...your thoughts are out of tune...out of synch sometimes..the old crook seized farms and gave it to his supporter now he is seizing companies http://thezimbabwemail.c...s-plans-to-meet-country’s-black-ownership-rules.html..look I know stupid S&P has downgraded the U.S...but the U.S economy is not doing that bad...look at the July Job numbers...an economy that can still create Jobs is not a dead one...you talk as if global events can not affect Kenya...look at horticulture & south..without strong forex inflows the shilling will continue to tank south and thus push the Kenyan economy into a coma...we should not celebrate a U.S downgrade...its a sad event...
Cde Monomotapa
#40 Posted : Saturday, August 06, 2011 12:04:16 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Hahaha. U r a better media man. I give u exclusive rights to cover my progress.
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