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Jubilee Insurance 1H 2011 EPS up 19%, Interim Dividend Sh1
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the deal
#21 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 11:46:36 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
the deal wrote:
Jubilee is using accounting magic to hide the fact that Profits were down...look at comprehensive income...no wonder they didnt increase their dividends...

Sigh, you need to a little more reading... I advise you grab a book that discusses IFRS accounting as relates to insurance firms.

Comprehensive Income includes 'gains/losses' that are not Operational in nature though do form part of the 'Income' of the firm.

In the past such data was captured in the Shareholders' Equity section.

Agricultural firms have "Biological Assets" which are not equal to cash which is why Williamson specifies 90/- EPS is not cash EPS (or from operations)

As is Insurance firms are notoriously difficult to value thus I rely on trust of Management.

I do not trust Kenya Re but I trust Jubilee. Of course, never pay too much for a good thing either nevertheless Jubilee is the BEST listed insurer in East & Central Africa!

Boss Total Comprehensive income include stuff such as financial assets which are not tradable but gains/losses are recognised through FVTOCI...do not read too much into what the media is feeding you...Jub's top line biz is growing but not as fast as the media says...use tools such as npw/npe ratio...look at the amount ceded to reinsurer...look at the surge in claims...theyre taking in too much risky business and a 10% growth in operating profits confirms that...
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youcan'tstopusnow
#22 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 11:59:18 AM
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Joined: 3/24/2010
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the deal, claims rose by how much? (%)
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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the deal
#23 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 12:04:39 PM
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
the deal, claims rose by how much? (%)

By 24%...the insurance biz is pooh pooh...investment income is Jub's only saviour...
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VituVingiSana
#24 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 12:14:09 PM
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Joined: 1/3/2007
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Location: Nairobi
Erm, amounts ceded to re-insurers need to be analyzed. There is a MINIMUM statutory requirement. You can always cede more.

Claims - These vary substantially year on year. Its the long-term trend that matters but even then it can be volatile e.g. Japan's tsunami.

Erm, I don't use the media for analysis.

How does a 10% INCREASE in Operating Profits confirm they are taking on too much risky business? Unless you can audit the books, this info is tough to assess.

As is analyzing Insurance Firms is very hard. I do not bother. If you can do it using the little info provided, then good luck.

Again, I look at multiple metrics but if I don't trust the Management then I will NOT invest in an Insurance Firm.

Warren Buffett looks for 'float' not an underwriting profit. If JIC had sold their stocks in 4Q 2010 then they are very, very smart coz they can buy back in 2012 at a 25% discount + 10% interest gain in 2011. Very smart folks!

BTW, I doubt JIC sells their holdings in TPSEA, NMG & DTBK which are all tremendous firms.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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the deal
#25 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 12:28:16 PM
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Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
Erm, amounts ceded to re-insurers need to be analyzed. There is a MINIMUM statutory requirement. You can always cede more.

Claims - These vary substantially year on year. Its the long-term trend that matters but even then it can be volatile e.g. Japan's tsunami.

Erm, I don't use the media for analysis.

How does a 10% INCREASE in Operating Profits confirm they are taking on too much risky business? Unless you can audit the books, this info is tough to assess.

As is analyzing Insurance Firms is very hard. I do not bother. If you can do it using the little info provided, then good luck.

Again, I look at multiple metrics but if I don't trust the Management then I will NOT invest in an Insurance Firm.

Warren Buffett looks for 'float' not an underwriting profit. If JIC had sold their stocks in 4Q 2010 then they are very, very smart coz they can buy back in 2012 at a 25% discount + 10% interest gain in 2011. Very smart folks!

BTW, I doubt JIC sells their holdings in TPSEA, NMG & DTBK which are all tremendous firms.

Look at the cash flow statement...under cash flow from investment activities...you will see where JUB's investment income is coming from...they have a mountain to climb to match last years perfomance...well to see if Jub's insurance biz is profitable just subtract operating expenses+claims from NPE...Jub does not sell the 4 Aga Khan firms...those ones are not tradable...thats why the need for FVTOCI...
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the deal
#26 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 1:17:39 PM
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Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Find my analysis of those Jubilee numbers here http://contrarianinvesti...r-full-year-profits.html
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guru267
#27 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 1:38:37 PM
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the deal wrote:
Find my analysis of those Jubilee numbers here http://contrarianinvesti...-full-year-profits.html


@the deal I seriously wonder how you sleep at night after publishing such ridiculous information.

Firstly the EPS is up 35% not 19% (you cant even do something as simple as adjust for bonus shares)

Secondly almost all their half year profits depend on the insurance business and in your analysis you claim that they made underwriting losses..

Thirdly Jubilee has never relied on the NSE for its overall profit... In 2009 the market was down and every insurance company from Britak to Cfc life posted a loss whereas Jubilee posted a profit GROWTH!!

And Who told you proceeds from sale of shares has anything to do with the profits from the sale of those shares.

How does the drought and inflation affect Jubilee? People and businesses take out more premiums.

Your research exposes a lot of ignorance and i must say I am pretty dissappointed in this analysis so please change it or remain exposed..

I repeat..

The NSE has never and will never impact jubilee's earnings significnatly!!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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guru267
#28 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 1:42:19 PM
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Superb results from jubilee.. In a challenging environment like the current one insurance companies usually wallow in losses so im impressed..

I project full year EPS to be at 45bob..
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Gordon Gekko
#29 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 1:48:46 PM
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guru267 wrote:
Superb results from jubilee.. In a challenging environment like the current one insurance companies usually wallow in losses so im impressed..

I project full year EPS to be at 45bob..

Quite a timid response. I expected vitriol and thunderstorms directed at @the deal.
Lakini @guru, isn't 45/- a little on the ambitious side? Stocks aren't doing as well, seacom tariffs are under pressure, the dam in UG has water supply issues, where will the investment income come from?
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the deal
#30 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 1:52:12 PM
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@Guru I stick by my analysis...i'm just telling it the way it is...clearly you don't know anything about insurance...or analysing an insurance company for that matter...an EPS of Sh45 is a pipe dream...we can bet..
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VituVingiSana
#31 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 1:56:18 PM
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@guru - 45/-? I think that's a little too ambitious! Not that I would not mind it!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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young
#32 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 5:17:19 PM
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Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,048
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
JUB with 45 bob eps ?

It is a wild dream.

It is easier for VVS to win election as Kenya President in 2012/2013 than JUB to return 45 bob eps in 2011.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
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guru267
#33 Posted : Friday, August 05, 2011 8:00:34 AM
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Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
@Guru I stick by my analysis...i'm just telling it the way it is...clearly you don't know anything about insurance...or analysing an insurance company for that matter...an EPS of Sh45 is a pipe dream...we can bet..


@the deal be my guest.. Full year EPS for 2010 was 33.7 and so an EPS of 45 in 2011 will be a modest gain of 33%..
thats even less than the growth of 35% they posted yesterday...

If it were not for the performance of the NSE i would have expected an EPS of 60.. But I'll happily take 45bob in this environment

In 2010 Half year results were up 69% and the full year results were up 84% and the same trend maintained year after year come recession or boom... What makes 2011 different

Its very sad that the chairman and the auditors all recognise the SUPERB underwriting profits that the company makes both in the statements and the numerous awards they win year after year because the all knowing @the deal thinks that they made an underwriting loss and we all must listen to him rather than those i the know Sad

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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muganda
#34 Posted : Friday, August 05, 2011 9:08:46 AM
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Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,906
Hmmn @guru267 thunderous entry... Madame welcome to the Jubilee party smile

Audacious sentiments on Jubilee's FY 2011 EPS, but you may just be proven right all things held constant, but the jury is out.

EPS reported
2008 FY:HY came in at 14.14 v/s 5.34 (2.6 times)
2009 FY:HY came in at 18.33/5.38 (3.4 times)
2010 FY:HY was at 37/8.02 or (4.6 times)

2011 FY:HY targeting at 45/9.58 (4.6 times)
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the deal
#35 Posted : Friday, August 05, 2011 9:22:36 AM
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@Guru my advise to you is go back to school and learn some basic accrual accounting...for now you are just a dreamer...Jub EPS of Sh45 is a pipe dream...
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guru267
#36 Posted : Friday, August 05, 2011 9:53:41 AM
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the deal wrote:
@Guru my advise to you is go back to school and learn some basic accrual accounting...for now you are just a dreamer...Jub EPS of Sh45 is a pipe dream...


I will go back to school for "basic accrual accounting" as you suggest.... But I'll only do that if Jubilee's auditors, chairman and C.F.O come with me because all I do is quote their statements word for word...

They are the ones that stated the 35% growth in EPS and the UNDERWRITING PROFITS... Those weren't my words but theirs but since I belive them I ought to go back to school for more accounting also smile
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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guru267
#37 Posted : Friday, August 05, 2011 9:55:13 AM
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Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
muganda wrote:
Hmmn @guru267 thunderous entry... Madame welcome to the Jubilee party smile

Audacious sentiments on Jubilee's FY 2011 EPS, but you may just be proven right all things held constant, but the jury is out.

EPS reported
2008 FY:HY came in at 14.14 v/s 5.34 (2.6 times)
2009 FY:HY came in at 18.33/5.38 (3.4 times)
2010 FY:HY was at 37/8.02 or (4.6 times)

2011 FY:HY targeting at 45/9.58 (4.6 times)


@muganda I hope this becomes an eye opener for thoe in doubt of Jubileee's skill and prowess..

45bob here we come!!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Gordon Gekko
#38 Posted : Friday, August 05, 2011 10:04:22 AM
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Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
the deal wrote:
@Guru my advise to you is go back to school and learn some basic accrual accounting...for now you are just a dreamer...Jub EPS of Sh45 is a pipe dream...


Happened across a tweet by one D**** M***. Is it you??smile
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the deal
#39 Posted : Friday, August 05, 2011 10:34:44 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Gordon Gekko wrote:
the deal wrote:
@Guru my advise to you is go back to school and learn some basic accrual accounting...for now you are just a dreamer...Jub EPS of Sh45 is a pipe dream...


Happened across a tweet by one D**** M***. Is it you??smile

Just follow the guy if u like what he tweets...no idea who he issmile
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guru267
#40 Posted : Friday, August 05, 2011 2:06:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
here's my analysis on the exemplary half year results of jubilee:

1. Underwriting profits: Up 31% to 523million
2. EPS: Up 35% from 7.4 to 9.58
3. Short term business premiums: Up 47% to 5.9 billion
4. Long term business premiums: Up 24% to 2billion
5. Investment income: up 36% to 984 million
6. Client base: over 300,000 customers for insurance
7. Planned investment in expansion by 2012: 4billion.

Please do not be mislead by bloggers
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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