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StatMeister
#1 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 1:25:27 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
Key leading indicators of a (mini)-rally are as follows:
* Increased foreign demand
* Up-movement in foreign favourites and highly liquid counters (Saf, EABL, BAT, Kengen, KPLC etc)
* Shilling Forex gains
* Stock index gains in other emerging markets

My 2 cents
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
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VituVingiSana
#2 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 1:57:29 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,223
Location: Nairobi
None of the above apply so must be a South Wind!

KPLC & KenGen are down
KShs notes will be worth less than sheets of toilet paper
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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StatMeister
#3 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 3:01:20 PM
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@vvs, these indicators would lead the index by weeks.

The NSE 20 opened today at 3745. Am betting on 3900 by 19th August.
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
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Cde Monomotapa
#4 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 3:32:00 PM
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Let's also see how turnover/liquidity fairs next week & beyond with the close of Britak IPO tomorrow.
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mnandii
#5 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 3:58:09 PM
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Joined: 10/11/2006
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Meanwhile Ksh to USD falls to 92.10 today!
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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the deal
#6 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 4:25:10 PM
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Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
mnandii wrote:
Meanwhile Ksh to USD falls to 92.10 today!

A century against the USD will be goodsmile

It can always strengthen after 2012
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cnn
#7 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 7:17:25 PM
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Markets across the globe falling sharply today,losses of more than 3.5% in Europe and for the US.Brazil's market off 6% at this hour!.
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#8 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 10:01:36 PM
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Joined: 9/23/2010
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Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Even the JSE got a severe beating yesterday going down by more than 300 points!
@SufficientlyP
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Cde Monomotapa
#9 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 10:10:07 PM
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Even the JSE got a severe beating yesterday going down by more than 300 points!

The problem with SA is that they did more business abroad when the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa was poor. The birds are roosting.
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Cde Monomotapa
#10 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 10:12:24 PM
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60 dollar crude!!
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youcan'tstopusnow
#11 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 10:16:13 PM
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Joined: 3/24/2010
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Location: Black Africa
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
60 dollar crude!!


Will KK cope this time?
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Cde Monomotapa
#12 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 10:30:31 PM
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
60 dollar crude!!


Will KK cope this time?

The pricing formula should protect margins I presume. Right now i'm thinking wholesale! This is the silver bullet for this inflation menace!!
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youcan'tstopusnow
#13 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 10:32:04 PM
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Joined: 3/24/2010
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Location: Black Africa
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
60 dollar crude!!


Will KK cope this time?

The pricing formula should protect margins I presume. Right now i'm thinking wholesale! This is the silver bullet for this inflation menace!!


What of the subsidiaries?
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Cde Monomotapa
#14 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 10:42:24 PM
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
60 dollar crude!!


Will KK cope this time?

The pricing formula should protect margins I presume. Right now i'm thinking wholesale! This is the silver bullet for this inflation menace!!


What of the subsidiaries?

Oops...that's a valid point! But f**k it, we need inflationary relief now! KK we will recover later!!
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the deal
#15 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 10:58:06 PM
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Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Eish KenolKobil does not have space to hold inventories for that long...any inventory bought towards end of 2010 have been sold off...so a weak crude price can not hurt KenolKobil...in fact it's welcome...it will help push volumes...only get worried if they have any long term hedges...
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Cde Monomotapa
#16 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 11:23:54 PM
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the deal wrote:
Eish KenolKobil does not have space to hold inventories for that long...any inventory bought towards end of 2010 have been sold off...so a weak crude price can not hurt KenolKobil...in fact it's welcome...it will help push volumes...only get worried if they have any long term hedges...

What of in all those tanks we've bought in the recent past?!?
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the deal
#17 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 11:27:09 PM
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Joined: 9/25/2009
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Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
the deal wrote:
Eish KenolKobil does not have space to hold inventories for that long...any inventory bought towards end of 2010 have been sold off...so a weak crude price can not hurt KenolKobil...in fact it's welcome...it will help push volumes...only get worried if they have any long term hedges...

What of in all those tanks we've bought in the recent past?!?

...KK is well diversified if caught with any expensive stock they can dump the stock in markets offering the highest margins I.e Kenya ..smile
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Cde Monomotapa
#18 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 11:54:42 PM
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Bottom line, sustained cheap crude will be an early Xmas gift for net importer countries of the EAC!! A strong Q4 and beyond.....
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StatMeister
#19 Posted : Friday, August 05, 2011 7:59:26 AM
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Marketers are better off compared to the brief-case oil companies who just sit on ullage. Nowhere to dump the old stocks - Triton reloaded
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
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Cde Monomotapa
#20 Posted : Friday, August 05, 2011 8:06:39 AM
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Joined: 1/13/2011
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StatMeister wrote:
Marketers are better off compared to the brief-case oil companies who just sit on ullage. Nowhere to dump the old stocks - Triton reloaded

Luckily the August load is KK's?
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