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Deacons HY 2011 results
muganda
#1 Posted : Tuesday, August 02, 2011 9:28:21 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,906
In business, the adage I'd testify to is 'good news travels fast, and bad news slithers'

So on page 5 of Business Daily, Deacons Half Year 2011 results, much earlier than their last results...
Showing 38% growth in turnover, leading to a 51% growth in profit before tax (73% after tax) backed largely by the new store revenue (4 new ones).

So only thing to look up to is another 4 planned new stores by end of 2011.



Sad to see EPS decline from 1.51 to 1.45 due to the increase in new ordinary shares. This share would be pummelled if it was introduced to the market Now.

Apple Bees
#2 Posted : Tuesday, August 02, 2011 12:32:18 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/5/2008
Posts: 390
thanks for the analysis. hope they can get listed as per plans (in 2012)
the deal
#3 Posted : Tuesday, August 02, 2011 1:06:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Analysis of those Deacons numbers coming here http://contrarianinvestingkenya.info
Apple Bees
#4 Posted : Tuesday, August 02, 2011 2:31:50 PM
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Joined: 7/5/2008
Posts: 390
thanks @the deal
the deal
#5 Posted : Tuesday, August 02, 2011 3:19:25 PM
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Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Apple Bees wrote:
thanks @the deal

You are welcome, i'm looking at their numbers now...but if you are a shareholder please tell them to be disclosing more info i.e cash flow statement sawasmile
the deal
#6 Posted : Tuesday, August 02, 2011 4:26:56 PM
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Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Revenues for the 1H 2011 were up 38%, despite the surge in revenues operating margins were stagnant at 4.3% which is quiet low compared to Mr Price South Africa whose operating Margins come in around 12%, management says business was slow in the 1H of 2011 due to the seasonality nature of the business and they expect sales to pick up in the 2H due to factors such as festive season shopping


Read more here http://www.contrarianinv...ansion-our-analysis.html
Apple Bees
#7 Posted : Tuesday, August 02, 2011 4:44:05 PM
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Joined: 7/5/2008
Posts: 390
the deal wrote:
Apple Bees wrote:
thanks @the deal

You are welcome, i'm looking at their numbers now...but if you are a shareholder please tell them to be disclosing more info i.e cash flow statement sawasmile

sawa. I am a shareholder. This will be passed on at the appropriate time
muganda
#8 Posted : Tuesday, August 02, 2011 5:59:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,906
Mzee @deal how were you able to calculate operating margin from the results as provided? Could you be referring to net profit margin?

I also didn't pick where management said 'business was slow in 1H' as you claim. Are we reading the same commentary?


Otherwise the sales per square foot shows good insight on your part. Ditto the comparison to Mr Price SA; which seems like a much better run business.

Note though Mr Price SA is one brand, but Deacons makes most from Woolworths/Truworths closely followed by Mr Price and then includes a litter of other brands e.g. Adiddas, Identity, Life Fitness

http://deacons.co.ke/site/images/interimaccounts.pdf
the deal
#9 Posted : Tuesday, August 02, 2011 6:25:42 PM
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Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
muganda wrote:
Mzee @deal how were you able to calculate operating margin from the results as provided? Could you be referring to net profit margin?

I also didn't pick where management said 'business was slow in 1H' as you claim. Are we reading the same commentary?


Otherwise the sales per square foot shows good insight on your part. Ditto the comparison to Mr Price SA; which seems like a much better run business.

Note though Mr Price SA is one brand, but Deacons makes most from Woolworths/Truworths closely followed by Mr Price and then includes a litter of other brands e.g. Adiddas, Identity, Life Fitness

http://deacons.co.ke/site/images/interimaccounts.pdf

operating margin/net profit margins are all the same...Deacons should disclose more info on their operations..i would have given you more insights...i was keen on their cash flow statement sadly it was nowhere to be seen...inventories compared to revenues sheds more light I.e margins could be low cos deacons is forced to clear stock at giveaway prices indicating issues with the pricing...margins could be low due to high fixed costs I.e rent...loans...do you want me to go on.......
VituVingiSana
#10 Posted : Tuesday, August 02, 2011 7:03:10 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
Operating Margins is NOT the same as Net Profit Margins. Since you are a 'young' analyst, I shall not blast you but refer you to a few Finance Textbooks.

2 firms with the same sales, margins, etc but different Capital Structures will have different NPM even if the OM is the same.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#11 Posted : Tuesday, August 02, 2011 9:01:13 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
Operating Margins is NOT the same as Net Profit Margins. Since you are a 'young' analyst, I shall not blast you but refer you to a few Finance Textbooks.

2 firms with the same sales, margins, etc but different Capital Structures will have different NPM even if the OM is the same.

Ok net profit margins it is...Olympia and Deacons have the same net profit margins...Olympia sells building materials...Deacons sells Clad...smile
KenyanLyrics
#12 Posted : Wednesday, August 03, 2011 12:28:55 AM
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Joined: 4/16/2010
Posts: 906
Location: Nairobi
OK guys, I know this might have been discussed before, but where do Deacons get their money from? Apart from Mr. Price, the rest seem rather empty to me whenever I pass them in the big malls. Do they have other revenue streams apart from retail?
VituVingiSana
#13 Posted : Wednesday, August 03, 2011 12:38:51 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
@KL - Which stores do you go to? And when?

These stores depend on traffic from specific 'clients' who shop at certain times...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
youcan'tstopusnow
#14 Posted : Wednesday, August 03, 2011 12:42:27 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Deacons secures Dubai baby wear franchise deal

http://www.businessdaily...98/-/rr9b87/-/index.html
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
KenyanLyrics
#15 Posted : Wednesday, August 03, 2011 9:18:09 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2010
Posts: 906
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
@KL - Which stores do you go to? And when?

These stores depend on traffic from specific 'clients' who shop at certain times...

I pass by the Deacons stores in Village Market, Westgate, town and Sarit regularly, and occasionally see the ones in Junction and Prestige. I have never seen more than 10 customers in a store at any given time. The busiest one I've seen is the Mr. Price in town, which has moderate, but steady walk-in traffic.

Comparing this to my experience with clothes stores from abroad, the traffic in those stores was like a feeding frenzy! People leaving with hands full of bags, lining up outside the store in the morning... I remember during my short tour, how once I had to settle for a small size Grant Hill basketball jersey, because the XXL ones were sold out. Another time during winter I found it hard to find those puffy jackets in the store cause they were sold out. This experience of mine just makes me wonder where Deacons are getting their money from, because it doesn't seem to me like they have a good amount of walk-in traffic :-/
the deal
#16 Posted : Wednesday, August 03, 2011 9:37:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@KenyaLyrics Deacons sales per square foot is Sh7680 Do you know how much one pair of jeans cost in Woolworth or Mr Price Deacons? Also remember they have 25 mega shops across E.A. Please next time you window shop check the prices too or buy something...LOL...read more here http://www.contrarianinvestingkenya.info
ProverB
#17 Posted : Wednesday, August 03, 2011 9:48:40 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
the deal wrote:

operating margin/net profit margins are all the same...


I so disagree.

the Muganda wrote:
So on page 5 of Business Daily, Deacons Half Year 2011 results, much earlier than their last results...
Showing 38% growth in turnover, leading to a 51% growth in profit before tax (73% after tax) backed largely by the new store revenue (4 new ones).

So only thing to look up to is another 4 planned new stores by end of 2011.


..apparently they are turning to Baby wear and accessories in a big way.. the franchise deal confirms the rumor
http://www.businessdaily...8/-/rr9b87/-/index.html
..a walk down biashara street lets you know how much business comes with babies!! when was the last time you saw Napkins?? A shop in buru is stocked only with diapers!!
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
VituVingiSana
#18 Posted : Wednesday, August 03, 2011 10:15:12 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,261
Location: Nairobi
@KL - I agree these stores will not be as busy as USA stores but they are doing OK for now. The BIG question is...

What happens to Deacons (or other aspirational firms) if Kenya gets stuck with STAGFLATION?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#19 Posted : Wednesday, August 03, 2011 10:28:22 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
@KL - I agree these stores will not be as busy as USA stores but they are doing OK for now. The BIG question is...

What happens to Deacons (or other aspirational firms) if Kenya gets stuck with STAGFLATION?

Theyre not doing Ok...theyre struggling to do OK...bdw buying Deacons at Sh62.5 is a rip off...
KenyanLyrics
#20 Posted : Wednesday, August 03, 2011 11:06:31 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2010
Posts: 906
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
@KenyaLyrics Deacons sales per square foot is Sh7680 Do you know how much one pair of jeans cost in Woolworth or Mr Price Deacons? Also remember they have 25 mega shops across E.A. Please next time you window shop check the prices too or buy something...LOL...read more here http://www.contrarianinvestingkenya.info

I just find it strange that such an empty retail store has actually reached IPO stage. Stranger still, no Wazuans seem to be asking questions about it...
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