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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
youcan'tstopusnow
#181 Posted : Sunday, July 31, 2011 11:09:06 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
hisah wrote:
Traders...

NSE is now ready for a bounce. Happy now smile

Volume has gone through the index and the index is now flattening for a bounce. Selling pressure is ebbing. Techs - RSI so overbought - weekly to be precise since June 6th.

I'll be very simple with some very simple charts. Note these are fast trades, so no fundies analysis apply...

NSE - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=%5EN20I - Look at the volume

Counters likely to trend in tandem with the NSE bounce.
KCB - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=KCB - Volume spike
NIC - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=NIC - Volume spike
Safcom - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=SCOM - Volume spike
CMC - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=CMC
CFCI - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=CFCI
COOP - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=COOP
Equity - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=EQTY
Jubilee - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=JUB
Stanchart - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=SCBK
Crown - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=BERG
Mumias - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=MSC - Forming an inverse H&S supported by volume and if the pattern plays out - target 8 - 8.20.
Total up, while KK will head down! http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=TOTL

So what are my grabs - KCB, NIC, Scom and some MSC in that order. KCB's volume @22.50 is too huge to ignore...

To watch out for volume.
NMG - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=NMG
KQ - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=KQ
TPS - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=TPSE
Uchumi - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=UCHM
Centum - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=ICDC
Kengen - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=KEGN
DTK - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=DTK - This has reached the objective of the H&S pattern @108 - 109. Strong support here.

Something interesting with CFC - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=CFC

Worst chart ever - Neveready aka paka since Jan 2011... Freefall to oblivion! Heart bypass triggered and on overdrive...

To be sold while NSE rebounds - KK - Many won't like this analogy but the volumes says so - peak volumes at highs = smart money exit - http://live.mystocks.co.ke/stock=KENO

[b]And finally media signal, usually meant to scare you away from the upturn - http://www.nation.co.ke/...06/1206080/-/ux1o1kz/-/[/b]

NSE rebound level - 3800 - 3900. If it head to 4000 the better, but doubtful...




Another media signal?

http://www.businessdaily...6/-/2ufo4tz/-/index.html
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
the deal
#182 Posted : Monday, August 01, 2011 9:28:15 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Any positive news from inflation numbers being released today will send the NSE on a rally vice versa if the inflation numbers look like a cricket score we shall come tumbling down.
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#183 Posted : Monday, August 01, 2011 5:17:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
You know the market is bottoming out when all we can do for a whole trading session is 68.76M!!!
@SufficientlyP
hisah
#184 Posted : Monday, August 01, 2011 5:23:16 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
NSE July close @3733. I expect a slide to 3700 or 3690, then a pickup. That would form a hammer candle pattern, which would hint to a bullish pickup. This is what I'm looking for in August. If the index falls thru 3600, all fast trade bets off!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
hisah
#185 Posted : Monday, August 01, 2011 5:25:45 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
You know the market is bottoming out when all we can do for a whole trading session is 68.76M!!!


Did the ATS fail today smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
youcan'tstopusnow
#186 Posted : Monday, August 01, 2011 6:56:43 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
You know the market is bottoming out when all we can do for a whole trading session is 68.76M!!!


Those volumes were pitiful!
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
Cde Monomotapa
#187 Posted : Monday, August 01, 2011 7:34:00 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
We also need to consider the run up to Britak IPO closure this FurahiDAY!!
hisah
#188 Posted : Tuesday, August 02, 2011 11:07:49 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
KCB, volume spikes again. Foreigners net buys.

Scom volume demand x12 vs supply... Trades today equal buy/sell foreign interest. Supply @3.50 & below getting skimmed aka stopping supply.

NSE index 1% up today. Traders keep watching... smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
erifloss
#189 Posted : Wednesday, August 03, 2011 8:20:10 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
From a TA point of view NSE should be ready for a short term rebound but i kind of have a feeling it's still going to be tricky. This is because even after a US debt deal, their numbers are kind of a little scary. The deal will have a -ve 1.5% growth on their economy while their real earlier growth expectations was at only 1.3%. Trickle down effect even when we don't want to accept will be there, this coupled with high inflation & high interest rates.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
Mo
#190 Posted : Wednesday, August 03, 2011 11:33:52 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/21/2007
Posts: 326
hisah wrote:
NSE July close @3733. I expect a slide to 3700 or 3690, then a pickup. That would form a hammer candle pattern, which would hint to a bullish pickup. This is what I'm looking for in August. If the index falls thru 3600, all fast trade bets off!

There is the looming aud 2012 invinsible foot, i'd expect the curve to flat out at 3600 for at least 12 more months before the bullish hint, that's assuming the bear pressure doesn't further creep on investors willing to cut their losses before amagedion and allow the index to seeve to sub 3500...my 2 cents
Speak your truth quietly and clearly; and listen to others, even the dull and the ignorant; they too have their story.
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