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KenolKobil first HY 2011 pretax profit up 86%
the deal
#161 Posted : Sunday, July 31, 2011 3:59:19 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
In fact I have been dumping Equity in favour of KK...i want a fat dividend cheaque...plus i'm up almost 25% so KK is my wife n mpango wa kando at the same time
VituVingiSana
#162 Posted : Sunday, July 31, 2011 4:40:58 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,223
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
KK is my wife n mpango wa kando at the same time
Best sort of relationship!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Gordon Gekko
#163 Posted : Sunday, July 31, 2011 5:52:25 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
@young, please don't get me wrong. KK is the best investment on the NSE today and I fully intend to come back. I've just taken the gamble on the anticipated downturn and locked in my profits (51%). And yes, CFC MM is annual interest, the alternative would have been leaving the cash in my broker account.
young
#164 Posted : Sunday, July 31, 2011 6:09:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,048
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Gordon Gekko wrote:
@young, please don't get me wrong. KK is the best investment on the NSE today and I fully intend to come back. I've just taken the gamble on the anticipated downturn and locked in my profits (51%). And yes, CFC MM is annual interest, the alternative would have been leaving the cash in my broker account.


Hakuna Matata.
End of Discussion on this subject matter.
Regards to all
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
FUNKY
#165 Posted : Monday, August 01, 2011 8:22:17 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/30/2010
Posts: 1,635
youcan'tstopusnow
#166 Posted : Wednesday, August 03, 2011 12:43:35 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
What? Government may not have been paid for selling refinery stake...

http://www.businessdaily...2/-/rgw490z/-/index.html
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
hisah
#167 Posted : Wednesday, August 03, 2011 5:18:10 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
[quote=youcan'tstopusnow]What? Government may not have been paid for selling refinery stake...

http://www.businessdaily.../-/rgw490z/-/index.html[/quote]

I've tried to access this site on mobile, but getting to a funny biz daily mobile page. When did biz daily launch this site? And did they do any testing on how older or new PC format articles would get reformatted on redirection to the mobile site. Arghhh... The mobile site is as dull as ever.
Biz daily put up an opinion poll on this mobile site and I'm sure you wont like the users response...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Cde Monomotapa
#168 Posted : Wednesday, August 03, 2011 6:27:50 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
hisah wrote:
[quote=youcan'tstopusnow]What? Government may not have been paid for selling refinery stake...

http://www.businessdaily.../-/rgw490z/-/index.html[/quote]

I've tried to access this site on mobile, but getting to a funny biz daily mobile page. When did biz daily launch this site? And did they do any testing on how older or new PC format articles would get reformatted on redirection to the mobile site. Arghhh... The mobile site is as dull as ever.
Biz daily put up an opinion poll on this mobile site and I'm sure you wont like the users response...

same experience with Nation online paper, nkt!!
Gordon Gekko
#169 Posted : Wednesday, August 03, 2011 8:22:06 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
hisah wrote:
[quote=youcan'tstopusnow]What? Government may not have been paid for selling refinery stake...

http://www.businessdaily.../-/rgw490z/-/index.html[/quote]

I've tried to access this site on mobile, but getting to a funny biz daily mobile page. When did biz daily launch this site? And did they do any testing on how older or new PC format articles would get reformatted on redirection to the mobile site. Arghhh... The mobile site is as dull as ever.
Biz daily put up an opinion poll on this mobile site and I'm sure you wont like the users response...


Ditto, the nation.co.ke seems to be defaulting to the mobile.nation.co.ke when accessed from amobile device. Will the smart alec at NMG who did this please revert to normal as I prefer getting the actual site as opposed to the mobile one. The mobile one is not updated as quickly and frequently as the origino one.
VituVingiSana
#170 Posted : Wednesday, August 03, 2011 10:23:02 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,223
Location: Nairobi
I think Kenya's entire Oil Sector should be handed over to KK to manage!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
lovely2010
#171 Posted: : Thursday, August 04, 2011 10:43:45 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/25/2010
Posts: 519
Location: nairobi
Dont I love this...Supply over 1million, demand 200,000...I've changed my targets not 9.50 but 8.50 and below...
VituVingiSana
#172 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 11:16:39 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,223
Location: Nairobi
lovely2010 wrote:
Dont I love this...Supply over 1million, demand 200,000...I've changed my targets not 9.50 but 8.50 and below...

Even though I have KK shares, part of me would not mind a drop to 8.50 coz (even 9.50) coz I would pile in as much possible!

It's like buying shares in 2002 when prices were rock bottom & firms were trading at absurdly low PERs!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Wendz
#173 Posted : Thursday, August 04, 2011 5:37:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/19/2008
Posts: 4,268
VituVingiSana wrote:
lovely2010 wrote:
Dont I love this...Supply over 1million, demand 200,000...I've changed my targets not 9.50 but 8.50 and below...

Even though I have KK shares, part of me would not mind a drop to 8.50 coz (even 9.50) coz I would pile in as much possible!

It's like buying shares in 2002 when prices were rock bottom & firms were trading at absurdly low PERs!


My wishes too... holding my buy orders till ex-div
Genghis Khan
#174 Posted : Friday, August 05, 2011 9:36:13 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/5/2010
Posts: 335
Location: Nairobi
Genghis Khan wrote:
Got some avg. under 11.00. If i can net 20% in under 4weeks will be happy (enough to sell half the lot @13.50).

Will always buy if under 12 & I can get cash.

It a win/win: If it goes back to 10 i'm happy, if it goes to 15 i'm happy.


Got my fat Cables dividend cheque late (monday)...

I had always planned to buy more cables at the lower price...

Instead, I promptly split it 3ways... EQB/KCB/KK

Regional...
"I'd rather be lucky than clever... every time!" - ME
"The problem is not what we don't know... it's what we know for sure that just ain't!" - MARK TWAIN
"Space we can recover... time never!" - NAPOLEON BONAPARTE
guru267
#175 Posted : Friday, August 05, 2011 10:06:53 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:

It's like buying shares in 2002 when prices were rock bottom & firms were trading at absurdly low PERs!


This is sooooo true.. I started trading a while ago but its been long since stocks offered so much value..

For example KK..
1. Forward PER= 4.5
2. NAV= approx. 1
3. Forward Dividend yield= 9.6%
4. Price/sales ratio= 0.12

By using discounted future value analyis This is disgustingly cheap for any stock let alone a gem like kenol..
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
hisah
#176 Posted : Sunday, August 07, 2011 6:13:06 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:

It's like buying shares in 2002 when prices were rock bottom & firms were trading at absurdly low PERs!


This is sooooo true.. I started trading a while ago but its been long since stocks offered so much value..

For example KK..
1. Forward PER= 4.5
2. NAV= approx. 1
3. Forward Dividend yield= 9.6%
4. Price/sales ratio= 0.12

By using discounted future value analyis This is disgustingly cheap for any stock let alone a gem like kenol..


Unfortunately the investors mood aka sentiment has taken over the mind Sad And for this reason that's why I'm calling for cheaper prices in months to come.
Anyway a fat tail price disconnect esp for bluechips presents the best buying opportunity.

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Cde Monomotapa
#177 Posted : Sunday, August 07, 2011 7:16:43 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
It occured to me today that the NSE values KK & SCAN similarly @15B* market cap. Surely...??
Hunderwear
#178 Posted : Sunday, August 07, 2011 8:12:00 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/14/2011
Posts: 639
hisah wrote:
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:

It's like buying shares in 2002 when prices were rock bottom & firms were trading at absurdly low PERs!


This is sooooo true.. I started trading a while ago but its been long since stocks offered so much value..

For example KK..
1. Forward PER= 4.5
2. NAV= approx. 1
3. Forward Dividend yield= 9.6%
4. Price/sales ratio= 0.12

By using discounted future value analyis This is disgustingly cheap for any stock let alone a gem like kenol..


Unfortunately the investors mood aka sentiment has taken over the mind Sad And for this reason that's why I'm calling for cheaper prices in months to come.
Anyway a fat tail price disconnect esp for bluechips presents the best buying opportunity.


>>I tak it you mean price-NAV ratio of 1
Gordon Gekko
#179 Posted : Monday, August 08, 2011 7:52:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
I have reviewed my outlook of KK (based on my very pedestrian thinking).
In segment reporting, the revenue is divided thus:
Kenya Inland - 33.8M (31%)
Kenya other – 49.4M (46%)
EAC – 14.6M (14%)
Other subs – 10.5 (10%)
Total – 108M

I stand corrected, but am assuming Kenya inland are the retail outlets, while Kenya other is aviation, lubes etc.

I am convinced that the Kenya inland that accounts for 31% of revenue is either breaking even or making a loss on the basis of price controls and the discounts they give on Tuesdays, Fridays and Sundays. I will give the benefit of doubt and assume they are breaking even, therefore the earnings are just maintaining costs. On the basis of this argument, I will discount the eps of 1.21 (2010) by 31% for a revised eps of ksh 0.84.

If the market valued the performance of eps ksh 1.21 at ksh 12, it follows that the same market would have valued an eps of 0.84 at ksh 8.28.

It is agreed that the spectacular H1 results lifted the market valuation only by the value of the dividend, it then follows that ex div will be ksh 8.28. I am therefore revising my target price for repurchase of the stock at 8.30 from ksh 9.80.
VituVingiSana
#180 Posted : Monday, August 08, 2011 9:04:38 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,223
Location: Nairobi
@GG - I will not comment on the share price BUT the EPS will be much higher than your full-year EPS of 0.84 [I will venture 2x]

Ver unlikely that 2H will be better than 1H but 1H had unique factors...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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